Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
97	Nick Lardis	F	AHLPRO	21.1	CHI	23′ #67	0.91	33	68%	1.8y @22.9	183258	30
437	Sam Rinzel	D	AHLPRO	22.2	CHI	22′ #25	0.61	22	45%	1y @23.2	01645	19.2
490	Kevin Korchinski	D	AHLPRO	22.2	CHI	22′ #7	0.49	17.7	45%	0.6y @22.8	01642	18
633	Gavin Hayes	F	AHLPRO	22.3	CHI*	22′ #66	0.46	16.5	35%	1.2y @23.5	0437	14.9
763	Samuel Savoie	F	AHLPRO	22.4	CHI*	22′ #81	0.42	15.1	30%	1y @23.4	0037	12.6
1023	Martin Misiak	F	AHLPRO	21.9	CHI*	23′ #55	0.24	8.6	28%	1.6y @23.5	0027	9.1
1331	Nolan Allan	D	AHLPRO	23.3	CHI*	21′ #32	0.28	10.1	12%	0.8y @24.1	0026	6.2
1510	Ethan Del Mastro	D	AHLPRO	23.6	CHI	21′ #105	0.4	14.4	12%	1.3y @24.9	0019	4.5

Who each prospect looks like

97. Nick Lardis68% NHL · 1.8y

Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP
Carl Grundstrom 16′#57	27 pk	339 GP
Anton Slepyshev 13′#88	20 pk	102 GP
Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP

437. Sam Rinzel45% NHL · 1y

Jordan Schmaltz 12′#25	never stuck	42 GP
Josh Brook 17′#56	never stuck	0 GP
Sean Durzi 18′#52	44 pk	302 GP
Tony DeAngelo 14′#19	65 pk	482 GP
Robin Salo 17′#46	never stuck	32 GP

490. Kevin Korchinski45% NHL · 0.6y

Olli Juolevi 16′#5	never stuck	41 GP
Haydn Fleury 14′#7	26 pk	345 GP
Cal Foote 17′#14	14 pk	145 GP
Travis Sanheim 14′#17	45 pk	660 GP
Julius Honka 14′#14	never stuck	87 GP

633. Gavin Hayes35% NHL · 1.2y

Jordan Martinook 12′#58	37 pk	797 GP
Fabian Zetterlund 17′#63	46 pk	329 GP
Jansen Harkins 15′#47	20 pk	305 GP
Keegan Kolesar 15′#69	30 pk	439 GP
Ryan Kujawinski 13′#73	never stuck	0 GP

763. Samuel Savoie30% NHL · 1y

Jonathan Gruden 18′#95	never stuck	16 GP
Brad Morrison 15′#113	never stuck	0 GP
Ryan Kujawinski 13′#73	never stuck	0 GP
J.C. Beaudin 15′#71	never stuck	22 GP
Jonathan Ang 16′#94	never stuck	0 GP

1023. Martin Misiak28% NHL · 1.6y

Alex Schoenborn 14′#72	never stuck	0 GP
Aleksi Heponiemi 17′#40	never stuck	25 GP
Remi Elie 13′#40	16 pk	107 GP
Vaclav Karabacek 14′#49	never stuck	0 GP
Jakub Lauko 18′#77	25 pk	139 GP

1331. Nolan Allan12% NHL · 0.8y

Jeremy Roy 15′#31	never stuck	0 GP
Jared McIsaac 18′#36	never stuck	0 GP
Dylan Blujus 12′#40	never stuck	0 GP
Julius Bergman 14′#46	never stuck	0 GP
Bode Wilde 18′#41	never stuck	0 GP

1510. Ethan Del Mastro12% NHL · 1.3y

Casey Fitzgerald 16′#86	never stuck	63 GP
Vojtech Budik 16′#130	never stuck	0 GP
Niclas Almari 16′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Ty Emberson 18′#73	27 pk	178 GP
Linus Hogberg 16′#139	never stuck	5 GP