Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
9	Xavier Villeneuve	D	LHJMQ	18.9	CHI*	26′ #34	1.03	23.6	68%	2.2y @21.1	152964	32.1
69	Sam Rinzel	D	AHLPRO	22.2	CHI	22′ #25	0.61	22	45%	1y @23.2	01645	19.2
76	Kevin Korchinski	D	AHLPRO	22.2	CHI	22′ #7	0.49	17.7	45%	0.6y @22.8	01642	18
154	Alexander Ivanov	D	VHLPRO	18.2	CHI*	26′ #194	0.08	2	42%	4.3y @22.5	01129	12.9
416	Nolan Allan	D	AHLPRO	23.3	CHI*	21′ #32	0.28	10.1	12%	0.8y @24.1	0026	6.2
476	Ashton Cumby	D	WHL	21.1	CHI*	25′ #162	0.29	7.1	12%	3.8y @24.9	0019	4.7
478	Ethan Del Mastro	D	AHLPRO	23.6	CHI	21′ #105	0.4	14.4	12%	1.3y @24.9	0019	4.5

Who each prospect looks like

9. Xavier Villeneuve68% NHL · 2.2y

Henri Jokiharju 17′#29	30 pk	448 GP
Jordan Schmaltz 12′#25	never stuck	42 GP
Olli Maatta 12′#22	55 pk	804 GP
Erik Brannstrom 17′#15	36 pk	294 GP
Jeremy Roy 15′#31	never stuck	0 GP

69. Sam Rinzel45% NHL · 1y

Jordan Schmaltz 12′#25	never stuck	42 GP
Josh Brook 17′#56	never stuck	0 GP
Sean Durzi 18′#52	44 pk	302 GP
Tony DeAngelo 14′#19	65 pk	482 GP
Robin Salo 17′#46	never stuck	32 GP

76. Kevin Korchinski45% NHL · 0.6y

Olli Juolevi 16′#5	never stuck	41 GP
Haydn Fleury 14′#7	26 pk	345 GP
Cal Foote 17′#14	14 pk	145 GP
Travis Sanheim 14′#17	45 pk	660 GP
Julius Honka 14′#14	never stuck	87 GP

154. Alexander Ivanov42% NHL · 4.3y

Jacob Cederholm 16′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Martin Fehérváry 18′#46	27 pk	380 GP
Maxime Lajoie 16′#133	never stuck	77 GP
Gabriel Carlsson 15′#29	never stuck	81 GP
Gustav Forsling 14′#126	43 pk	557 GP

416. Nolan Allan12% NHL · 0.8y

Jeremy Roy 15′#31	never stuck	0 GP
Jared McIsaac 18′#36	never stuck	0 GP
Dylan Blujus 12′#40	never stuck	0 GP
Julius Bergman 14′#46	never stuck	0 GP
Bode Wilde 18′#41	never stuck	0 GP

476. Ashton Cumby12% NHL · 3.8y

Robin Norell 13′#111	never stuck	0 GP
Blake Heinrich 13′#144	never stuck	0 GP
Cole Candella 16′#140	never stuck	0 GP
Jan Kostalek 13′#114	never stuck	0 GP
Gianluca Curcuruto 12′#182	never stuck	0 GP

478. Ethan Del Mastro12% NHL · 1.3y

Casey Fitzgerald 16′#86	never stuck	63 GP
Vojtech Budik 16′#130	never stuck	0 GP
Niclas Almari 16′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Ty Emberson 18′#73	27 pk	178 GP
Linus Hogberg 16′#139	never stuck	5 GP