Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
22	Cole Reschny★	F	NCAA	19.4	CGY	25′ #18	0.97	32.7	72%	2.4y @21.8	233979	41.8
23	Carson Carels★	D	WHL	18.2	CGY*	26′ #6	1.26	31	75%	1.8y @20	164477	41.5
37	Cullen Potter	F	NCAA	19.6	CGY	25′ #32	1.08	36.4	62%	2y @21.6	193473	35.3
47	Matvei Gridin	F	AHLPRO	20.5	CGY	24′ #28	0.81	29.3	70%	2.1y @22.6	183368	33.8
52	Chase Harrington	F	WHL	18.8	CGY*	26′ #36	0.93	23	68%	3y @21.8	03473	33.5
57	Ethan Wyttenbach★	F	NCAA	19.5	CGY	25′ #144	1.48	49.6	55%	2.6y @22.1	03077	33
59	Alan Shaikhlislamov★	F	MHL	18	CGY*	26′ #55	1.13	16.7	60%	3.8y @21.8	03283	32.6
73	Jack Hextall	F	USHL	18.4	CGY	26′ #30	0.98	19.3	62%	3.4y @21.8	03168	31.6
152	Joe Iginla	F	WHL	18	CGY*	26′ #65	0.54	13.3	53%	3.8y @21.8	02968	28.1
229	Trevor Hoskin	F	NCAAPRO	22.3	CGY*	24′ #106	1.03	34.6	50%	1y @23.3	02764	25.3
382	Andrew Basha	F	WHL	20.8	CGY*	24′ #41	1.56	38.4	42%	2.1y @22.9	01247	20.5
594	Aydar Suniev	F	AHLPRO	21.8	CGY	23′ #80	0.42	15.2	33%	1.5y @23.3	01037	15.5
679	Bode Laylin	D	USHL	18.8	CGY*	26′ #164	0.69	13.6	35%	4.8y @23.6	0044	13.9
698	Egor Barabanov	F	OHL	20.3	CGY*	26′ #100	1.34	32.9	30%	3.4y @23.7	0046	13.4
777	Jaden Lipinski	F	NCAAPRO	21.7	CGY*	23′ #112	0.4	13.4	23%	1.5y @23.2	0046	12.5
779	William Stromgren	F	AHLPRO	23.2	CGY*	21′ #45	0.71	25.7	28%	1.4y @24.6	0036	12.4
826	Etienne Morin	D	AHLPRO	21.4	CGY*	23′ #48	0.17	6	42%	1.4y @22.8	01029	11.8
830	Hunter Brzustewicz	D	AHLPRO	21.7	CGY	23′ #75	0.38	13.8	33%	1.1y @22.8	0032	11.7
849	Tyson Gross	F	NCAAPRO	23.9	CGY	—	1.14	38.3	17%	0.7y @24.6	0055	11.4
934	Abram Wiebe	D	NCAAPRO	23	CGY	—	0.72	24.4	30%	1.2y @24.2	0031	10.4
963	Eric Jamieson	D	NCAAPRO	21.1	CGY*	24′ #177	0.42	14.1	28%	2.3y @23.4	0026	10.1
1027	Cade Littler	F	NCAAPRO	22.1	CGY*	22′ #219	0.37	12.5	15%	0.9y @23	0027	9.1
1083	Jacob Battaglia	F	OHL	20.4	CGY*	24′ #62	0.75	18.4	17%	2.8y @23.2	0031	8.5
1439	Luke Misa	F	NCAA	20.7	CGY*	24′ #150	0.51	17.3	10%	2.7y @23.4	0013	5.2
1501	Maceo Phillips	D	USHL	19.5	CGY*	25′ #80	0.25	4.9	15%	2y @21.5	0025	4.7
1621	Axel Hurtig	D	WHL	21.2	CGY*	23′ #208	0.3	7.3	7%	4.7y @25.9	0014	4
1743	Yan Matveiko	F	MHL	20	CGY*	25′ #211	0.74	10.9	7%	3.2y @23.2	000	3.4
1801	Hunter Laing	F	WHL	20.3	CGY*	24′ #170	0.89	21.8	7%	1.4y @21.7	0012	3
1982	Lucas Ciona	F	AHLPRO	23.6	CGY*	21′ #173	0.19	6.9	5%	3.7y @27.3	000	1.3
2030	Parker Bell	F	AHLPRO	22.9	CGY*	22′ #155	0.11	4.1	3%	1y @23.9	000	0.5

Who each prospect looks like

22. Cole Reschny72% NHL · 2.4y

Sonny Milano 14′#16	42 pk	344 GP
Mathew Barzal 15′#16	85 pk	611 GP
Joshua Ho-Sang 14′#28	never stuck	53 GP
Nick Schmaltz 14′#20	77 pk	670 GP
Jared McCann 14′#24	73 pk	720 GP

23. Carson Carels75% NHL · 1.8y

Mikhail Sergachev 16′#9	66 pk	630 GP
Quinn Hughes 18′#7	92 pk	507 GP
Jakob Chychrun 16′#16	64 pk	621 GP
Evan Bouchard 18′#10	95 pk	429 GP
Darnell Nurse 13′#7	53 pk	798 GP

37. Cullen Potter62% NHL · 2y

Ivan Barbashev 14′#33	61 pk	667 GP
Sam Steel 16′#30	41 pk	491 GP
Joe Veleno 18′#30	29 pk	367 GP
Maxime Comtois 17′#50	49 pk	211 GP
Akil Thomas 18′#51	never stuck	32 GP

47. Matvei Gridin70% NHL · 2.1y

Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Tanner Pearson 12′#30	53 pk	778 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Eetu Luostarinen 17′#42	43 pk	447 GP
Vladislav Kamenev 14′#42	never stuck	66 GP

52. Chase Harrington68% NHL · 3y

Alexandre Texier 17′#45	46 pk	283 GP
Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP
Isac Lundeström 18′#23	30 pk	405 GP
Liam Foudy 18′#18	19 pk	105 GP
Jaret Anderson-Dolan 17′#41	27 pk	134 GP

57. Ethan Wyttenbach55% NHL · 2.6y

Christian Dvorak 14′#58	52 pk	614 GP
Justin Almeida 18′#129	never stuck	0 GP
Troy Terry 15′#148	77 pk	488 GP
Jan Jenik 18′#65	never stuck	24 GP
Kevin Labanc 14′#171	56 pk	512 GP

59. Alan Shaikhlislamov60% NHL · 3.8y

Alex Formenton 17′#47	33 pk	109 GP
Nicolas Kerdiles 12′#36	never stuck	3 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30	46 pk	423 GP
Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP

73. Jack Hextall62% NHL · 3.4y

J.T. Compher 13′#35	52 pk	658 GP
Scott Laughton 12′#20	45 pk	745 GP
Colin White 15′#21	47 pk	323 GP
Isac Lundeström 18′#23	30 pk	405 GP
Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30	46 pk	423 GP

152. Joe Iginla53% NHL · 3.8y

Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Alex Formenton 17′#47	33 pk	109 GP
Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Hudson Fasching 13′#118	32 pk	175 GP
Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP

229. Trevor Hoskin50% NHL · 1y

Jacob Peterson 17′#132	never stuck	83 GP
Mattias Janmark 13′#79	38 pk	680 GP
Mason Appleton 15′#168	37 pk	465 GP
Rourke Chartier 14′#149	never stuck	56 GP
Riley Damiani 18′#137	never stuck	7 GP

382. Andrew Basha42% NHL · 2.1y

Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Brett Howden 16′#27	41 pk	489 GP
Brendan Lemieux 14′#31	25 pk	307 GP
Evan Barratt 17′#90	never stuck	0 GP
Laurent Dauphin 13′#39	never stuck	94 GP

594. Aydar Suniev33% NHL · 1.5y

Scott Kosmachuk 12′#70	never stuck	8 GP
Austin Wagner 15′#99	28 pk	178 GP
Allan McShane 18′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Anthony Richard 15′#100	never stuck	40 GP
Connor Bunnaman 16′#109	never stuck	54 GP