Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
47	Matvei Gridin	F	AHLPRO	20.5	CGY	24′ #28	0.81	29.3	70%	2.1y @22.6	183368	33.8
99	Jonathan Castagna	F	NCAAPRO	21.3	CGY	23′ #70	1	33.6	68%	1.7y @23	183253	29.8
229	Trevor Hoskin	F	NCAAPRO	22.3	CGY*	24′ #106	1.03	34.6	50%	1y @23.3	02764	25.3
594	Aydar Suniev	F	AHLPRO	21.8	CGY	23′ #80	0.42	15.2	33%	1.5y @23.3	01037	15.5
777	Jaden Lipinski	F	NCAAPRO	21.7	CGY*	23′ #112	0.4	13.4	23%	1.5y @23.2	0046	12.5
779	William Stromgren	F	AHLPRO	23.2	CGY	21′ #45	0.71	25.7	28%	1.4y @24.6	0036	12.4
830	Hunter Brzustewicz	D	AHLPRO	21.7	CGY	23′ #75	0.38	13.8	33%	1.1y @22.8	0032	11.7
849	Tyson Gross	F	NCAAPRO	23.9	CGY	—	1.14	38.3	17%	0.7y @24.6	0055	11.4
934	Abram Wiebe	D	NCAAPRO	23	CGY	—	0.72	24.4	30%	1.2y @24.2	0031	10.4
963	Eric Jamieson	D	NCAAPRO	21.1	CGY*	24′ #177	0.42	14.1	28%	2.3y @23.4	0026	10.1
1027	Cade Littler	F	NCAAPRO	22.1	CGY*	22′ #219	0.37	12.5	15%	0.9y @23	0027	9.1
1981	Lucas Ciona	F	AHLPRO	23.6	CGY*	21′ #173	0.19	6.9	5%	3.7y @27.3	000	1.3
2029	Parker Bell	F	AHLPRO	22.9	CGY*	22′ #155	0.11	4.1	3%	1y @23.9	000	0.5

Who each prospect looks like

47. Matvei Gridin70% NHL · 2.1y

Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Tanner Pearson 12′#30	53 pk	778 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Eetu Luostarinen 17′#42	43 pk	447 GP
Vladislav Kamenev 14′#42	never stuck	66 GP

99. Jonathan Castagna68% NHL · 1.7y

Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP
Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP
Lucas Wallmark 14′#97	31 pk	187 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Anton Slepyshev 13′#88	20 pk	102 GP

229. Trevor Hoskin50% NHL · 1y

Jacob Peterson 17′#132	never stuck	83 GP
Mattias Janmark 13′#79	38 pk	680 GP
Mason Appleton 15′#168	37 pk	465 GP
Rourke Chartier 14′#149	never stuck	56 GP
Riley Damiani 18′#137	never stuck	7 GP

594. Aydar Suniev33% NHL · 1.5y

Scott Kosmachuk 12′#70	never stuck	8 GP
Austin Wagner 15′#99	28 pk	178 GP
Allan McShane 18′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Anthony Richard 15′#100	never stuck	40 GP
Connor Bunnaman 16′#109	never stuck	54 GP

777. Jaden Lipinski23% NHL · 1.5y

JC Lipon 13′#91	never stuck	9 GP
Paul Cotter 18′#115	27 pk	296 GP
Mikhail Vorobyev 15′#104	never stuck	35 GP
Jonathan Gruden 18′#95	never stuck	16 GP
Clark Bishop 14′#127	never stuck	53 GP

779. William Stromgren28% NHL · 1.4y

Tanner Richard 12′#71	never stuck	3 GP
Robin Kovacs 15′#62	never stuck	0 GP
Ruslan Iskhakov 18′#43	never stuck	1 GP
Bulat Shafigullin 18′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Jayce Hawryluk 14′#32	never stuck	98 GP

830. Hunter Brzustewicz33% NHL · 1.1y

Reilly Walsh 17′#81	never stuck	1 GP
Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP
Tarmo Reunanen 16′#98	never stuck	4 GP
Madison Bowey 13′#53	26 pk	158 GP
Brandon Crawley 17′#123	never stuck	0 GP

849. Tyson Gross17% NHL · 0.7y

Liam Kirk 18′#189	never stuck	0 GP
Nikita Gusev 12′#202	never stuck	97 GP
Dominik Lakatos 17′#157	never stuck	0 GP
Sebastian Repo 17′#184	never stuck	0 GP
Tomas Hyka 12′#171	never stuck	27 GP

934. Abram Wiebe30% NHL · 1.2y

Christian Djoos 12′#195	25 pk	155 GP
Colin Miller 12′#151	41 pk	590 GP
Veeti Vainio 15′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Markus Nutivaara 15′#189	31 pk	275 GP
Mikael Wikstrand 12′#196	never stuck	0 GP

963. Eric Jamieson28% NHL · 2.3y

Christian Jaros 15′#139	never stuck	94 GP
Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP
Brandon Crawley 17′#123	never stuck	0 GP
Cale Fleury 17′#87	11 pk	100 GP
Declan Chisholm 18′#150	23 pk	125 GP

1027. Cade Littler15% NHL · 0.9y

Gabriel Fontaine 16′#171	never stuck	0 GP
Pavel Koltygin 17′#176	never stuck	0 GP
Joel Vermin 13′#186	never stuck	24 GP
Ben Jones 17′#189	never stuck	56 GP
Oskar Steen 16′#165	never stuck	60 GP

1981. Lucas Ciona5% NHL · 3.7y

Ryan Olsen 12′#160	never stuck	0 GP
Mitchell Hoelscher 18′#172	never stuck	0 GP
Gregory Chase 13′#188	never stuck	0 GP
Alexander Delnov 12′#114	never stuck	0 GP
Milos Roman 18′#122	never stuck	0 GP