Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
Org:AllANAARIBOSBUFCARCBJCGYCHICOLDALDETEDMFLALAKMINMTLNJDNSHNYINYROTTPHIPITSEASJSSTLTBLTORUTAVANVGKWPGWSH
How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Carson Carels★ | D | WHL | 18.2 | CGY* | 26′ #6 | 1.26 | 31 | 75% | 1.8y @20 | 164477 | 41.5 |
| 52 | Chase Harrington | F | WHL | 18.8 | CGY* | 26′ #36 | 0.93 | 23 | 68% | 3y @21.8 | 03473 | 33.5 |
| 152 | Joe Iginla | F | WHL | 18 | CGY* | 26′ #65 | 0.54 | 13.3 | 53% | 3.8y @21.8 | 02968 | 28.1 |
| 382 | Andrew Basha | F | WHL | 20.8 | CGY* | 24′ #41 | 1.56 | 38.4 | 42% | 2.1y @22.9 | 01247 | 20.5 |
| 1621 | Axel Hurtig | D | WHL | 21.2 | CGY* | 23′ #208 | 0.3 | 7.3 | 7% | 4.7y @25.9 | 0014 | 4 |
| 1801 | Hunter Laing | F | WHL | 20.3 | CGY* | 24′ #170 | 0.89 | 21.8 | 7% | 1.4y @21.7 | 0012 | 3 |
Who each prospect looks like
23. Carson Carels75% NHL · 1.8y
| Mikhail Sergachev 16′#9 | 66 pk | 630 GP |
| Quinn Hughes 18′#7 | 92 pk | 507 GP |
| Jakob Chychrun 16′#16 | 64 pk | 621 GP |
| Evan Bouchard 18′#10 | 95 pk | 429 GP |
| Darnell Nurse 13′#7 | 53 pk | 798 GP |
52. Chase Harrington68% NHL · 3y
| Alexandre Texier 17′#45 | 46 pk | 283 GP |
| Jake Guentzel 13′#77 | 91 pk | 681 GP |
| Isac Lundeström 18′#23 | 30 pk | 405 GP |
| Liam Foudy 18′#18 | 19 pk | 105 GP |
| Jaret Anderson-Dolan 17′#41 | 27 pk | 134 GP |
152. Joe Iginla53% NHL · 3.8y
| Ivan Morozov 18′#61 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Alex Formenton 17′#47 | 33 pk | 109 GP |
| Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100 | never stuck | 2 GP |
| Hudson Fasching 13′#118 | 32 pk | 175 GP |
| Jarrod Maidens 12′#82 | never stuck | 0 GP |
382. Andrew Basha42% NHL · 2.1y
| Jack Drury 18′#42 | 30 pk | 268 GP |
| Brett Howden 16′#27 | 41 pk | 489 GP |
| Brendan Lemieux 14′#31 | 25 pk | 307 GP |
| Evan Barratt 17′#90 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Laurent Dauphin 13′#39 | never stuck | 94 GP |
1621. Axel Hurtig7% NHL · 4.7y
| Radim Salda 18′#206 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Blake Heinrich 13′#144 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Robin Norell 13′#111 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Brandon Crawley 17′#123 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Gianluca Curcuruto 12′#182 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1801. Hunter Laing7% NHL · 1.4y
| Dominik Lakatos 17′#157 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Garret Ross 12′#139 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Graham McPhee 16′#149 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Gabriel Fontaine 16′#171 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Axel Holmstrom 14′#196 | never stuck | 0 GP |