Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
47	Matvei Gridin	F	AHLPRO	20.5	CGY	24′ #28	0.81	29.3	70%	2.1y @22.6	183368	33.8
594	Aydar Suniev	F	AHLPRO	21.8	CGY	23′ #80	0.42	15.2	33%	1.5y @23.3	01037	15.5
779	William Stromgren	F	AHLPRO	23.2	CGY*	21′ #45	0.71	25.7	28%	1.4y @24.6	0036	12.4
826	Etienne Morin	D	AHLPRO	21.4	CGY*	23′ #48	0.17	6	42%	1.4y @22.8	01029	11.8
830	Hunter Brzustewicz	D	AHLPRO	21.7	CGY	23′ #75	0.38	13.8	33%	1.1y @22.8	0032	11.7
1982	Lucas Ciona	F	AHLPRO	23.6	CGY*	21′ #173	0.19	6.9	5%	3.7y @27.3	000	1.3
2030	Parker Bell	F	AHLPRO	22.9	CGY*	22′ #155	0.11	4.1	3%	1y @23.9	000	0.5

Who each prospect looks like

47. Matvei Gridin70% NHL · 2.1y

Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Tanner Pearson 12′#30	53 pk	778 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Eetu Luostarinen 17′#42	43 pk	447 GP
Vladislav Kamenev 14′#42	never stuck	66 GP

594. Aydar Suniev33% NHL · 1.5y

Scott Kosmachuk 12′#70	never stuck	8 GP
Austin Wagner 15′#99	28 pk	178 GP
Allan McShane 18′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Anthony Richard 15′#100	never stuck	40 GP
Connor Bunnaman 16′#109	never stuck	54 GP

779. William Stromgren28% NHL · 1.4y

Tanner Richard 12′#71	never stuck	3 GP
Robin Kovacs 15′#62	never stuck	0 GP
Ruslan Iskhakov 18′#43	never stuck	1 GP
Bulat Shafigullin 18′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Jayce Hawryluk 14′#32	never stuck	98 GP

826. Etienne Morin42% NHL · 1.4y

Roland McKeown 14′#50	never stuck	16 GP
Matthew Spencer 15′#44	never stuck	0 GP
Jeremy Lauzon 15′#52	16 pk	384 GP
Dillon Fournier 12′#48	never stuck	0 GP
Josh Jacobs 14′#41	never stuck	3 GP

830. Hunter Brzustewicz33% NHL · 1.1y

Reilly Walsh 17′#81	never stuck	1 GP
Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP
Tarmo Reunanen 16′#98	never stuck	4 GP
Madison Bowey 13′#53	26 pk	158 GP
Brandon Crawley 17′#123	never stuck	0 GP

1982. Lucas Ciona5% NHL · 3.7y

Ryan Olsen 12′#160	never stuck	0 GP
Mitchell Hoelscher 18′#172	never stuck	0 GP
Gregory Chase 13′#188	never stuck	0 GP
Alexander Delnov 12′#114	never stuck	0 GP
Milos Roman 18′#122	never stuck	0 GP

2030. Parker Bell3% NHL · 1y

Damien Giroux 18′#155	never stuck	1 GP
Blade Jenkins 18′#134	never stuck	0 GP
Ryan Olsen 12′#160	never stuck	0 GP
Alexander Delnov 12′#114	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Pezzetta 16′#160	20 pk	209 GP