Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
3	Carson Carels★	D	WHL	18.2	CGY*	26′ #6	1.26	31	75%	1.8y @20	164477	41.5
132	Bode Laylin	D	USHL	18.8	CGY*	26′ #164	0.69	13.6	35%	4.8y @23.6	0044	13.9
184	Etienne Morin	D	AHLPRO	21.4	CGY*	23′ #48	0.17	6	42%	1.4y @22.8	01029	11.8
187	Hunter Brzustewicz	D	AHLPRO	21.7	CGY	23′ #75	0.38	13.8	33%	1.1y @22.8	0032	11.7
243	Abram Wiebe	D	NCAAPRO	23	CGY	—	0.72	24.4	30%	1.2y @24.2	0031	10.4
257	Eric Jamieson	D	NCAAPRO	21.1	CGY*	24′ #177	0.42	14.1	28%	2.3y @23.4	0026	10.1
477	Maceo Phillips	D	USHL	19.5	CGY*	25′ #80	0.25	4.9	15%	2y @21.5	0025	4.7
514	Axel Hurtig	D	WHL	21.2	CGY*	23′ #208	0.3	7.3	7%	4.7y @25.9	0014	4

Who each prospect looks like

3. Carson Carels75% NHL · 1.8y

Mikhail Sergachev 16′#9	66 pk	630 GP
Quinn Hughes 18′#7	92 pk	507 GP
Jakob Chychrun 16′#16	64 pk	621 GP
Evan Bouchard 18′#10	95 pk	429 GP
Darnell Nurse 13′#7	53 pk	798 GP

132. Bode Laylin35% NHL · 4.8y

Mark Friedman 14′#86	never stuck	93 GP
Will Butcher 13′#123	45 pk	275 GP
Brian Cooper 12′#127	never stuck	0 GP
Ryan Pilon 15′#147	never stuck	0 GP
Ville Rasanen 17′#197	never stuck	0 GP

184. Etienne Morin42% NHL · 1.4y

Roland McKeown 14′#50	never stuck	16 GP
Matthew Spencer 15′#44	never stuck	0 GP
Jeremy Lauzon 15′#52	16 pk	384 GP
Dillon Fournier 12′#48	never stuck	0 GP
Josh Jacobs 14′#41	never stuck	3 GP

187. Hunter Brzustewicz33% NHL · 1.1y

Reilly Walsh 17′#81	never stuck	1 GP
Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP
Tarmo Reunanen 16′#98	never stuck	4 GP
Madison Bowey 13′#53	26 pk	158 GP
Brandon Crawley 17′#123	never stuck	0 GP

243. Abram Wiebe30% NHL · 1.2y

Christian Djoos 12′#195	25 pk	155 GP
Colin Miller 12′#151	41 pk	590 GP
Veeti Vainio 15′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Markus Nutivaara 15′#189	31 pk	275 GP
Mikael Wikstrand 12′#196	never stuck	0 GP

257. Eric Jamieson28% NHL · 2.3y

Christian Jaros 15′#139	never stuck	94 GP
Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP
Brandon Crawley 17′#123	never stuck	0 GP
Cale Fleury 17′#87	11 pk	100 GP
Declan Chisholm 18′#150	23 pk	125 GP

477. Maceo Phillips15% NHL · 2y

Nico Gross 18′#101	never stuck	0 GP
Casey Staum 16′#124	never stuck	0 GP
Ryan Lindgren 16′#49	29 pk	481 GP
Connor Hall 16′#77	never stuck	0 GP
Veeti Vainio 15′#141	never stuck	0 GP

514. Axel Hurtig7% NHL · 4.7y

Radim Salda 18′#206	never stuck	0 GP
Blake Heinrich 13′#144	never stuck	0 GP
Robin Norell 13′#111	never stuck	0 GP
Brandon Crawley 17′#123	never stuck	0 GP
Gianluca Curcuruto 12′#182	never stuck	0 GP