Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jackson Smith★ | D | NCAA | 19.3 | CBJ | 25′ #14 | 0.74 | 25 | 78% | 1.8y @21.1 | 153673 | 38.1 |
| 184 | Alessandro Di Iorio | F | OHL | 18.4 | CBJ* | 26′ #94 | 0.69 | 16.9 | 50% | 3.7y @22.1 | 02483 | 27.1 |
| 438 | Evan Jardine | F | USHL | 18.8 | CBJ* | 26′ #121 | 1.15 | 22.7 | 38% | 4y @22.8 | 0056 | 19.2 |
| 537 | Jonas Woo | F | WHL | 19.8 | CBJ* | 26′ #185 | 1.54 | 37.8 | 35% | 3.7y @23.5 | 0051 | 16.8 |
| 645 | Cayden Lindstrom | F | NCAA | 20.5 | CBJ | 24′ #4 | 0.32 | 10.8 | 38% | 1.6y @22.1 | 0036 | 14.6 |
| 1058 | Jeremy Loranger | F | NCAA | 19.2 | CBJ* | 25′ #198 | 0.68 | 22.8 | 15% | 3.8y @23 | 0044 | 8.8 |
| 1065 | Owen Griffin | F | OHL | 19.4 | CBJ* | 25′ #160 | 1.02 | 25 | 23% | 3.6y @23 | 0041 | 8.7 |
| 1135 | Tyler Peddle | F | LHJMQ | 21.6 | CBJ* | 23′ #224 | 0.31 | 7.2 | 20% | 1.8y @23.4 | 0025 | 7.8 |
| 1195 | Charlie Elick | F | WHL | 20.6 | CBJ* | 24′ #36 | 0.32 | 7.8 | 20% | 2.3y @22.9 | 0029 | 7.2 |
| 1317 | Malte Vass | D | NCAA | 19.4 | CBJ* | 25′ #76 | 0.14 | 4.6 | 23% | 2.9y @22.3 | 0026 | 6.4 |
Who each prospect looks like
26. Jackson Smith78% NHL · 1.8y
| Adam Boqvist 18′#8 | 43 pk | 272 GP |
| Dennis Cholowski 16′#20 | 25 pk | 173 GP |
| Slater Koekkoek 12′#10 | 20 pk | 186 GP |
| Mathew Dumba 12′#7 | 56 pk | 748 GP |
| Rasmus Sandin 18′#29 | 33 pk | 382 GP |
184. Alessandro Di Iorio50% NHL · 3.7y
| Jarrod Maidens 12′#82 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Ivan Morozov 18′#61 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100 | never stuck | 2 GP |
| Shane Eiserman 14′#100 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| J.T. Compher 13′#35 | 52 pk | 658 GP |
438. Evan Jardine38% NHL · 4y
| Jake Guentzel 13′#77 | 91 pk | 681 GP |
| Luke Johnson 13′#134 | never stuck | 32 GP |
| Jonne Tammela 15′#118 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Shane Eiserman 14′#100 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Jarrod Maidens 12′#82 | never stuck | 0 GP |
537. Jonas Woo35% NHL · 3.7y
| Kevin Labanc 14′#171 | 56 pk | 512 GP |
| Eric Locke 13′#189 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Justin Almeida 18′#129 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Anders Bjork 14′#146 | 33 pk | 225 GP |
| Myles Bell 13′#160 | never stuck | 0 GP |
645. Cayden Lindstrom38% NHL · 1.6y
| Michael Dal Colle 14′#5 | 20 pk | 112 GP |
| Grigori Denisenko 18′#15 | never stuck | 33 GP |
| Brendan Perlini 14′#12 | 33 pk | 262 GP |
| German Rubtsov 16′#22 | never stuck | 4 GP |
| Sebastian Collberg 12′#33 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1058. Jeremy Loranger15% NHL · 3.8y
| Vinnie Hinostroza 12′#169 | 44 pk | 477 GP |
| Frederik Tiffels 15′#167 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| John McCarron 12′#153 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Dominic Toninato 12′#126 | 20 pk | 197 GP |
| Brian Pinho 13′#174 | never stuck | 2 GP |
1065. Owen Griffin23% NHL · 3.6y
| Vinnie Hinostroza 12′#169 | 44 pk | 477 GP |
| Reid Duke 14′#169 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Dominic Toninato 12′#126 | 20 pk | 197 GP |
| Connor Brown 12′#156 | 51 pk | 676 GP |
| Allan McShane 18′#97 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1135. Tyler Peddle20% NHL · 1.8y
| Erik Walli Walterholm 17′#190 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Beck Malenstyn 16′#145 | 21 pk | 262 GP |
| Pavel Koltygin 17′#176 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Anton Zlobin 12′#173 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Ben Jones 17′#189 | never stuck | 56 GP |
1195. Charlie Elick20% NHL · 2.3y
| Antoine Morand 17′#60 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Dominic Turgeon 14′#63 | never stuck | 9 GP |
| Jonas Rondbjerg 17′#65 | never stuck | 80 GP |
| Givani Smith 16′#46 | 12 pk | 168 GP |
| Matia Marcantuoni 12′#92 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1317. Malte Vass23% NHL · 2.9y
| Casey Staum 16′#124 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Connor Hall 16′#77 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Veeti Vainio 15′#141 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Michael Karow 17′#126 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Nico Gross 18′#101 | never stuck | 0 GP |