Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
#PlayerPosLeagueAgeOrgDraftP/GPNHLeP(NHL)ETAUpside bandScore
26Jackson SmithDNCAA19.3CBJ25′ #140.742578%1.8y @21.1
153673
38.1
184Alessandro Di IorioFOHL18.4CBJ*26′ #940.6916.950%3.7y @22.1
02483
27.1
438Evan JardineFUSHL18.8CBJ*26′ #1211.1522.738%4y @22.8
0056
19.2
537Jonas WooFWHL19.8CBJ*26′ #1851.5437.835%3.7y @23.5
0051
16.8
645Cayden LindstromFNCAA20.5CBJ24′ #40.3210.838%1.6y @22.1
0036
14.6
1058Jeremy LorangerFNCAA19.2CBJ*25′ #1980.6822.815%3.8y @23
0044
8.8
1065Owen GriffinFOHL19.4CBJ*25′ #1601.022523%3.6y @23
0041
8.7
1135Tyler PeddleFLHJMQ21.6CBJ*23′ #2240.317.220%1.8y @23.4
0025
7.8
1195Charlie ElickFWHL20.6CBJ*24′ #360.327.820%2.3y @22.9
0029
7.2
1317Malte VassDNCAA19.4CBJ*25′ #760.144.623%2.9y @22.3
0026
6.4
26. Jackson Smith78% NHL · 1.8y
Adam Boqvist 18#843 pk272 GP
Dennis Cholowski 16#2025 pk173 GP
Slater Koekkoek 12#1020 pk186 GP
Mathew Dumba 12#756 pk748 GP
Rasmus Sandin 18#2933 pk382 GP
184. Alessandro Di Iorio50% NHL · 3.7y
Jarrod Maidens 12#82never stuck0 GP
Ivan Morozov 18#61never stuck0 GP
Thomas Di Pauli 12#100never stuck2 GP
Shane Eiserman 14#100never stuck0 GP
J.T. Compher 13#3552 pk658 GP
438. Evan Jardine38% NHL · 4y
Jake Guentzel 13#7791 pk681 GP
Luke Johnson 13#134never stuck32 GP
Jonne Tammela 15#118never stuck0 GP
Shane Eiserman 14#100never stuck0 GP
Jarrod Maidens 12#82never stuck0 GP
537. Jonas Woo35% NHL · 3.7y
Kevin Labanc 14#17156 pk512 GP
Eric Locke 13#189never stuck0 GP
Justin Almeida 18#129never stuck0 GP
Anders Bjork 14#14633 pk225 GP
Myles Bell 13#160never stuck0 GP
645. Cayden Lindstrom38% NHL · 1.6y
Michael Dal Colle 14#520 pk112 GP
Grigori Denisenko 18#15never stuck33 GP
Brendan Perlini 14#1233 pk262 GP
German Rubtsov 16#22never stuck4 GP
Sebastian Collberg 12#33never stuck0 GP
1058. Jeremy Loranger15% NHL · 3.8y
Vinnie Hinostroza 12#16944 pk477 GP
Frederik Tiffels 15#167never stuck0 GP
John McCarron 12#153never stuck0 GP
Dominic Toninato 12#12620 pk197 GP
Brian Pinho 13#174never stuck2 GP
1065. Owen Griffin23% NHL · 3.6y
Vinnie Hinostroza 12#16944 pk477 GP
Reid Duke 14#169never stuck0 GP
Dominic Toninato 12#12620 pk197 GP
Connor Brown 12#15651 pk676 GP
Allan McShane 18#97never stuck0 GP
1135. Tyler Peddle20% NHL · 1.8y
Erik Walli Walterholm 17#190never stuck0 GP
Beck Malenstyn 16#14521 pk262 GP
Pavel Koltygin 17#176never stuck0 GP
Anton Zlobin 12#173never stuck0 GP
Ben Jones 17#189never stuck56 GP
1195. Charlie Elick20% NHL · 2.3y
Antoine Morand 17#60never stuck0 GP
Dominic Turgeon 14#63never stuck9 GP
Jonas Rondbjerg 17#65never stuck80 GP
Givani Smith 16#4612 pk168 GP
Matia Marcantuoni 12#92never stuck0 GP
1317. Malte Vass23% NHL · 2.9y
Casey Staum 16#124never stuck0 GP
Connor Hall 16#77never stuck0 GP
Veeti Vainio 15#141never stuck0 GP
Michael Karow 17#126never stuck0 GP
Nico Gross 18#101never stuck0 GP