Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
537	Jonas Woo	F	WHL	19.8	CBJ*	26′ #185	1.54	37.8	35%	3.7y @23.5	0051	16.8
1195	Charlie Elick	F	WHL	20.6	CBJ*	24′ #36	0.32	7.8	20%	2.3y @22.9	0029	7.2

Who each prospect looks like

537. Jonas Woo35% NHL · 3.7y

Kevin Labanc 14′#171	56 pk	512 GP
Eric Locke 13′#189	never stuck	0 GP
Justin Almeida 18′#129	never stuck	0 GP
Anders Bjork 14′#146	33 pk	225 GP
Myles Bell 13′#160	never stuck	0 GP

1195. Charlie Elick20% NHL · 2.3y

Antoine Morand 17′#60	never stuck	0 GP
Dominic Turgeon 14′#63	never stuck	9 GP
Jonas Rondbjerg 17′#65	never stuck	80 GP
Givani Smith 16′#46	12 pk	168 GP
Matia Marcantuoni 12′#92	never stuck	0 GP