Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
26	Jackson Smith★	D	NCAA	19.3	CBJ	25′ #14	0.74	25	78%	1.8y @21.1	153673	38.1
125	William Whitelaw	F	NCAAPRO	21.5	CBJ*	23′ #66	0.87	29.3	65%	1.6y @23.1	183155	28.6
645	Cayden Lindstrom	F	NCAA	20.5	CBJ	24′ #4	0.32	10.8	38%	1.6y @22.1	0036	14.6
1019	Luke Ashton	D	NCAAPRO	21.6	CBJ*	24′ #165	0.32	10.9	28%	3y @24.6	0026	9.2
1058	Jeremy Loranger	F	NCAA	19.2	CBJ*	25′ #198	0.68	22.8	15%	3.8y @23	0044	8.8
1086	Andrew Strathmann	D	NCAAPRO	21.5	CBJ*	23′ #98	0.16	5.3	28%	2.3y @23.8	0024	8.5
1317	Malte Vass	D	NCAA	19.4	CBJ*	25′ #76	0.14	4.6	23%	2.9y @22.3	0026	6.4

Who each prospect looks like

26. Jackson Smith78% NHL · 1.8y

Adam Boqvist 18′#8	43 pk	272 GP
Dennis Cholowski 16′#20	25 pk	173 GP
Slater Koekkoek 12′#10	20 pk	186 GP
Mathew Dumba 12′#7	56 pk	748 GP
Rasmus Sandin 18′#29	33 pk	382 GP

125. William Whitelaw65% NHL · 1.6y

Anton Slepyshev 13′#88	20 pk	102 GP
Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP
Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP
Filip Hallander 18′#58	never stuck	16 GP
Sven Andrighetto 13′#86	36 pk	216 GP

645. Cayden Lindstrom38% NHL · 1.6y

Michael Dal Colle 14′#5	20 pk	112 GP
Grigori Denisenko 18′#15	never stuck	33 GP
Brendan Perlini 14′#12	33 pk	262 GP
German Rubtsov 16′#22	never stuck	4 GP
Sebastian Collberg 12′#33	never stuck	0 GP

1019. Luke Ashton28% NHL · 3y

Tim Berni 18′#159	never stuck	59 GP
Brandon Crawley 17′#123	never stuck	0 GP
Anton Cederholm 13′#145	never stuck	0 GP
Sebastian Walfridsson 17′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Caleb Jones 15′#117	24 pk	255 GP

1058. Jeremy Loranger15% NHL · 3.8y

Vinnie Hinostroza 12′#169	44 pk	477 GP
Frederik Tiffels 15′#167	never stuck	0 GP
John McCarron 12′#153	never stuck	0 GP
Dominic Toninato 12′#126	20 pk	197 GP
Brian Pinho 13′#174	never stuck	2 GP

1086. Andrew Strathmann28% NHL · 2.3y

Colton White 15′#97	14 pk	107 GP
Sebastian Walfridsson 17′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Tim Berni 18′#159	never stuck	59 GP
Caleb Jones 15′#117	24 pk	255 GP
Brandon Crawley 17′#123	never stuck	0 GP

1317. Malte Vass23% NHL · 2.9y

Casey Staum 16′#124	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Hall 16′#77	never stuck	0 GP
Veeti Vainio 15′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Karow 17′#126	never stuck	0 GP
Nico Gross 18′#101	never stuck	0 GP