Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
291	Luca Pinelli	F	AHLPRO	21.4	CBJ*	23′ #114	0.68	24.4	53%	1.7y @23.1	02553	22.9
317	Luca Del Bel Belluz	F	AHLPRO	22.8	CBJ*	22′ #44	1.05	38	42%	1.1y @23.9	02365	22.3
605	Luca Marrelli	D	AHLPRO	20.9	CBJ*	24′ #86	0.5	18	45%	1.6y @22.5	01331	15.3
721	Jordan Dumais	F	AHLPRO	22.3	CBJ*	22′ #96	0.39	14.1	28%	1.2y @23.5	0433	13.1
1318	Corson Ceulemans	D	AHLPRO	23.3	CBJ	21′ #25	0.38	13.5	15%	0.8y @24.1	0026	6.3
1537	Stanislav Svozil	D	AHLPRO	23.6	CBJ*	21′ #69	0.17	6.2	10%	2.3y @25.9	0016	4.4
1645	Guillaume Richard	D	AHLPRO	23.5	CBJ*	21′ #101	0.26	9.3	12%	2.3y @25.8	0017	3.8
1981	James Malatesta	F	AHLPRO	23.2	CBJ*	21′ #133	0.32	11.4	5%	4.1y @27.3	000	1.3

Who each prospect looks like

291. Luca Pinelli53% NHL · 1.7y

Michael Amadio 14′#90	35 pk	522 GP
Charles Hudon 12′#122	34 pk	134 GP
Brendan Leipsic 12′#89	33 pk	187 GP
Sven Andrighetto 13′#86	36 pk	216 GP
Rudolfs Balcers 15′#142	34 pk	170 GP

317. Luca Del Bel Belluz42% NHL · 1.1y

Taylor Raddysh 16′#58	39 pk	373 GP
Boris Katchouk 16′#44	23 pk	179 GP
Jonatan Berggren 18′#33	36 pk	205 GP
Mattias Janmark 13′#79	38 pk	680 GP
Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP

605. Luca Marrelli45% NHL · 1.6y

Joey Keane 18′#88	never stuck	2 GP
Filip Hronek 16′#53	52 pk	533 GP
Cale Fleury 17′#87	11 pk	100 GP
Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP
Vince Dunn 15′#56	65 pk	623 GP

721. Jordan Dumais28% NHL · 1.2y

Jonathan Gruden 18′#95	never stuck	16 GP
Jonathan Ang 16′#94	never stuck	0 GP
Brad Morrison 15′#113	never stuck	0 GP
Jimmy Lodge 13′#84	never stuck	0 GP
Gemel Smith 12′#104	never stuck	91 GP

1318. Corson Ceulemans15% NHL · 0.8y

Jared McIsaac 18′#36	never stuck	0 GP
Jeremy Roy 15′#31	never stuck	0 GP
Jordan Schmaltz 12′#25	never stuck	42 GP
Jett Woo 18′#37	never stuck	0 GP
Dylan Blujus 12′#40	never stuck	0 GP

1537. Stanislav Svozil10% NHL · 2.3y

Niklas Hansson 13′#68	never stuck	0 GP
Nico Gross 18′#101	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Prapavessis 14′#105	never stuck	0 GP
Jacob Ragnarsson 18′#70	never stuck	0 GP
Keaton Thompson 13′#87	never stuck	0 GP

1645. Guillaume Richard12% NHL · 2.3y

Wyatte Wylie 18′#127	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Clifton 13′#133	24 pk	434 GP
Brian Cooper 12′#127	never stuck	0 GP
Niklas Tikkinen 12′#148	never stuck	0 GP
Dysin Mayo 14′#133	never stuck	85 GP

1981. James Malatesta5% NHL · 4.1y

Samuel Houde 18′#133	never stuck	0 GP
Kyle Platzer 13′#96	never stuck	0 GP
Jonny Brodzinski 13′#148	31 pk	264 GP
Branden Troock 12′#134	never stuck	0 GP
Mitchell Hoelscher 18′#172	never stuck	0 GP