Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
4	Jackson Smith★	D	NCAA	19.3	CBJ	25′ #14	0.74	25	78%	1.8y @21.1	153673	38.1
107	Luca Marrelli	D	AHLPRO	20.9	CBJ*	24′ #86	0.5	18	45%	1.6y @22.5	01331	15.3
288	Luke Ashton	D	NCAAPRO	21.6	CBJ*	24′ #165	0.32	10.9	28%	3y @24.6	0026	9.2
327	Andrew Strathmann	D	NCAAPRO	21.5	CBJ*	23′ #98	0.16	5.3	28%	2.3y @23.8	0024	8.5
408	Malte Vass	D	NCAA	19.4	CBJ*	25′ #76	0.14	4.6	23%	2.9y @22.3	0026	6.4
409	Corson Ceulemans	D	AHLPRO	23.3	CBJ	21′ #25	0.38	13.5	15%	0.8y @24.1	0026	6.3
489	Stanislav Svozil	D	AHLPRO	23.6	CBJ*	21′ #69	0.17	6.2	10%	2.3y @25.9	0016	4.4
520	Guillaume Richard	D	AHLPRO	23.5	CBJ*	21′ #101	0.26	9.3	12%	2.3y @25.8	0017	3.8

Who each prospect looks like

4. Jackson Smith78% NHL · 1.8y

Adam Boqvist 18′#8	43 pk	272 GP
Dennis Cholowski 16′#20	25 pk	173 GP
Slater Koekkoek 12′#10	20 pk	186 GP
Mathew Dumba 12′#7	56 pk	748 GP
Rasmus Sandin 18′#29	33 pk	382 GP

107. Luca Marrelli45% NHL · 1.6y

Joey Keane 18′#88	never stuck	2 GP
Filip Hronek 16′#53	52 pk	533 GP
Cale Fleury 17′#87	11 pk	100 GP
Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP
Vince Dunn 15′#56	65 pk	623 GP

288. Luke Ashton28% NHL · 3y

Tim Berni 18′#159	never stuck	59 GP
Brandon Crawley 17′#123	never stuck	0 GP
Anton Cederholm 13′#145	never stuck	0 GP
Sebastian Walfridsson 17′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Caleb Jones 15′#117	24 pk	255 GP

327. Andrew Strathmann28% NHL · 2.3y

Colton White 15′#97	14 pk	107 GP
Sebastian Walfridsson 17′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Tim Berni 18′#159	never stuck	59 GP
Caleb Jones 15′#117	24 pk	255 GP
Brandon Crawley 17′#123	never stuck	0 GP

408. Malte Vass23% NHL · 2.9y

Casey Staum 16′#124	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Hall 16′#77	never stuck	0 GP
Veeti Vainio 15′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Karow 17′#126	never stuck	0 GP
Nico Gross 18′#101	never stuck	0 GP

409. Corson Ceulemans15% NHL · 0.8y

Jared McIsaac 18′#36	never stuck	0 GP
Jeremy Roy 15′#31	never stuck	0 GP
Jordan Schmaltz 12′#25	never stuck	42 GP
Jett Woo 18′#37	never stuck	0 GP
Dylan Blujus 12′#40	never stuck	0 GP

489. Stanislav Svozil10% NHL · 2.3y

Niklas Hansson 13′#68	never stuck	0 GP
Nico Gross 18′#101	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Prapavessis 14′#105	never stuck	0 GP
Jacob Ragnarsson 18′#70	never stuck	0 GP
Keaton Thompson 13′#87	never stuck	0 GP

520. Guillaume Richard12% NHL · 2.3y

Wyatte Wylie 18′#127	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Clifton 13′#133	24 pk	434 GP
Brian Cooper 12′#127	never stuck	0 GP
Niklas Tikkinen 12′#148	never stuck	0 GP
Dysin Mayo 14′#133	never stuck	85 GP