Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
165	Zachary Lansard	F	WHL	18.1	CAR*	26′ #68	0.82	20.3	53%	3.7y @21.8	02768	27.5
315	Michael Berchild	F	USHL	18.5	CAR*	26′ #105	0.9	17.8	45%	3.7y @22.2	0356	22.4
678	Justin Poirier	F	NCAA	20	CAR*	24′ #156	1.07	36.1	28%	3.6y @23.6	0035	13.9
1112	Kurban Limatov	D	MHL	19.4	CAR*	25′ #67	0.65	9.6	30%	3.4y @22.8	0026	8.3
1559	Filip Ekberg	F	OHL	19.4	CAR*	25′ #221	0.78	19.2	10%	4.4y @23.8	000	4.3
1629	Timur Kol	D	MHL	20	CAR*	24′ #168	0.83	12.2	10%	5.4y @25.4	0018	4
1961	Roman Shokhrin	D	MHL	20.5	CAR*	24′ #184	0.33	4.9	5%	5.3y @25.8	000	1.6

Who each prospect looks like

165. Zachary Lansard53% NHL · 3.7y

Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
J.T. Compher 13′#35	52 pk	658 GP
Alex Formenton 17′#47	33 pk	109 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30	46 pk	423 GP

315. Michael Berchild45% NHL · 3.7y

Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP
Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP

678. Justin Poirier28% NHL · 3.6y

Michael Bunting 14′#117	74 pk	418 GP
Emil Bemstrom 17′#117	33 pk	242 GP
Andreas Athanasiou 12′#110	58 pk	495 GP
Jeremy Grégoire 13′#176	never stuck	0 GP
Matthew Mistele 14′#180	never stuck	0 GP

1112. Kurban Limatov30% NHL · 3.4y

Ryan Lindgren 16′#49	29 pk	481 GP
Dmitry Semykin 18′#90	never stuck	0 GP
Dylan Labbe 13′#107	never stuck	0 GP
Patrick Sieloff 12′#42	never stuck	2 GP
Brendan Guhle 15′#51	never stuck	65 GP

1559. Filip Ekberg10% NHL · 4.4y

Brian Pinho 13′#174	never stuck	2 GP
John McCarron 12′#153	never stuck	0 GP
Liam Kirk 18′#189	never stuck	0 GP
Cristiano Digiacinto 14′#170	never stuck	0 GP
Jacob McGrew 17′#159	never stuck	0 GP

1629. Timur Kol10% NHL · 5.4y

Sami Niku 15′#198	never stuck	67 GP
Calle Sjalin 17′#145	never stuck	0 GP
Colin Miller 12′#151	41 pk	590 GP
Linus Hogberg 16′#139	never stuck	5 GP
Victor Berglund 17′#195	never stuck	0 GP

1961. Roman Shokhrin5% NHL · 5.3y

Jacob Golden 17′#147	never stuck	0 GP
Robin Norell 13′#111	never stuck	0 GP
Radim Salda 18′#206	never stuck	0 GP
Matthew Hellickson 17′#214	never stuck	0 GP
Brandon Crawley 17′#123	never stuck	0 GP