Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 280 | Alexander Rykov | F | KHLPRO | 21.1 | CAR* | 23′ #100 | 0.27 | 16.9 | 47% | 1.7y @22.8 | 01858 | 23.5 |
| 635 | Timur Mukhanov | F | KHLPRO | 21.2 | CAR* | 23′ #163 | 0.19 | 11.7 | 25% | 1.6y @22.8 | 0055 | 14.9 |
| 687 | Alexander Siryatsky | D | KHLPRO | 20 | CAR* | 24′ #124 | 0.14 | 8.5 | 42% | 2.3y @22.3 | 01129 | 13.8 |
| 1037 | Fyodor Avramov | F | KHLPRO | 20.8 | CAR* | 24′ #188 | 0.06 | 3.5 | 23% | 2.5y @23.3 | 0028 | 9 |
Who each prospect looks like
280. Alexander Rykov47% NHL · 1.7y
| Connor Bunnaman 16′#109 | never stuck | 54 GP |
| Allan McShane 18′#97 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Nick Baptiste 13′#69 | never stuck | 47 GP |
| Cole Ully 13′#131 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Austin Wagner 15′#99 | 28 pk | 178 GP |
635. Timur Mukhanov25% NHL · 1.6y
| Cole Ully 13′#131 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Viktor Crus Rydberg 13′#136 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Austin Wagner 15′#99 | 28 pk | 178 GP |
| Anton Blidh 13′#180 | never stuck | 89 GP |
| Nick Caamano 16′#146 | never stuck | 36 GP |
687. Alexander Siryatsky42% NHL · 2.3y
| Cale Fleury 17′#87 | 11 pk | 100 GP |
| Jacob Cederholm 16′#97 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Maxime Lajoie 16′#133 | never stuck | 77 GP |
| Colton White 15′#97 | 14 pk | 107 GP |
| Trevor Carrick 12′#115 | never stuck | 7 GP |
1037. Fyodor Avramov23% NHL · 2.5y
| Daniel Bernhardt 15′#119 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Anton Blidh 13′#180 | never stuck | 89 GP |
| Viktor Crus Rydberg 13′#136 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Calvin Thurkauf 16′#185 | never stuck | 3 GP |
| Nikita Popugaev 17′#98 | never stuck | 0 GP |