Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
410	Viggo Nordlund	F	ALLSVENSKANPRO	19.9	CAR*	25′ #183	0.5	15.6	40%	2.8y @22.7	01255	19.9
668	Noel Fransén	D	ALLSVENSKANPRO	20.7	CAR*	24′ #69	0.37	11.5	45%	1.5y @22.2	01331	14.2

Who each prospect looks like

410. Viggo Nordlund40% NHL · 2.8y

Taylor Leier 12′#117	never stuck	55 GP
Maksim Sushko 17′#107	never stuck	2 GP
Ondrej Kase 14′#205	55 pk	258 GP
Philipp Kurashev 18′#120	59 pk	360 GP
Nick Caamano 16′#146	never stuck	36 GP

668. Noel Fransén45% NHL · 1.5y

Cale Fleury 17′#87	11 pk	100 GP
Blake Siebenaler 14′#77	never stuck	0 GP
Robert Hagg 13′#41	22 pk	345 GP
Gustav Lindstrom 17′#38	18 pk	174 GP
Jonas Siegenthaler 15′#57	22 pk	449 GP