Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
13	Daxon Rudolph★	D	WHL	18.5	BUF*	26′ #4	1.15	28.2	85%	1.6y @20.1	254979	46.4
29	Ilia Morozov★	F	NCAA	18	BUF	26′ #20	0.56	18.7	72%	3.4y @21.4	04383	37.8
31	Radim Mrtka★	D	WHL	19.2	BUF	25′ #9	0.79	19.5	78%	1.4y @20.6	153372	37.6
63	Konsta Helenius	F	AHLPRO	20.3	BUF	24′ #14	1	36.1	62%	2.3y @22.6	93069	32.3
186	Olivers Murnieks	F	LHJMQ	18.1	BUF*	26′ #124	0.65	14.8	47%	3.8y @21.9	01983	27
273	Dylan Dumont	F	LHJMQ	18	BUF*	26′ #188	0.71	16.3	45%	4.1y @22.1	0057	23.7
316	Jake Richard	F	NCAAPRO	22	BUF	22′ #170	0.71	23.9	45%	1.4y @23.4	02353	22.3
548	Maxim Strbak	D	NCAAPRO	21.4	BUF	23′ #45	0.49	16.4	47%	1.4y @22.8	01344	16.5
570	Gavin McCarthy	D	NCAAPRO	21.2	BUF	23′ #86	0.58	19.6	42%	1.5y @22.7	01143	16
597	Matej Pekar	F	WHL	19	BUF*	18′ #94	0.83	20.3	33%	3.8y @22.8	0046	15.5
627	Luke Osburn	D	NCAA	19.9	BUF*	24′ #108	0.64	21.4	42%	2.6y @22.5	01143	15.1
673	Prokhor Poltapov	F	KHLPRO	23.6	BUF*	21′ #33	0.59	37.1	28%	0.9y @24.5	0039	13.9
691	Brodie Ziemer	F	NCAA	20.5	BUF*	24′ #71	1	33.6	30%	3.3y @23.8	0035	13.7
845	Noah Laberge	D	LHJMQ	19.9	BUF*	25′ #135	0.9	20.7	38%	4.2y @24.1	0031	11.5
947	Viktor Neuchev	F	AHLPRO	22.8	BUF*	22′ #74	0.42	15.1	25%	0.9y @23.7	0030	10.2
988	Patrick Geary	D	NCAAPRO	22.5	BUF*	24′ #172	0.31	10.6	30%	2.4y @24.9	0029	9.8
1030	Norwin Panocha	D	DELPRO	21.5	BUF*	23′ #205	0.09	3.2	28%	2.6y @24.1	0026	9.1
1031	Adam Kleber	D	NCAA	20.4	BUF*	24′ #42	0.3	10.1	25%	3.4y @23.8	0029	9.1
1128	Ethan Miedema	F	OHL	21.4	BUF*	23′ #109	0.69	17	23%	1.6y @23	0024	7.9
1136	Melvin Novotny	F	USHL	19.4	BUF*	25′ #195	1.19	23.4	15%	3.2y @22.6	0044	7.8
1188	Sean Keohane	D	NCAAPRO	21.8	BUF*	23′ #173	0.09	3	25%	2.3y @24.1	0024	7.3
1232	David Bedkowski	D	OHL	19.7	BUF*	25′ #71	0.43	10.7	23%	3.1y @22.8	0025	6.9
1362	Vsevolod Komarov	D	AHLPRO	22.6	BUF	22′ #134	0.2	7.2	17%	2.8y @25.4	0024	5.9
1368	Olivier Nadeau	F	AHLPRO	23.6	BUF*	21′ #97	0.46	16.8	12%	2.8y @26.4	0031	5.8
1389	Nikita Novikov	D	AHLPRO	23.1	BUF*	21′ #188	0.33	12	20%	2.7y @25.8	0024	5.5
1477	Ryan Rucinski	F	USHL	19.7	BUF*	25′ #219	1.05	20.7	10%	3y @22.7	000	4.9
1490	Simon-Pier Brunet	D	LHJMQ	20.8	BUF*	24′ #123	0.48	11.1	15%	4y @24.8	0019	4.8
1512	Christopher Brown	F	OHL	20.6	BUF*	14′ #151	0.87	21.3	10%	2.8y @23.4	0012	4.5
1877	Vasily Zelenov	F	NCAA	20.5	BUF*	24′ #204	0.68	22.8	7%	2.5y @23	000	2.4
1945	William Von Barnekow Lofberg	F	SHLPRO	23.8	BUF*	21′ #161	0.18	8.6	5%	1.6y @25.4	000	1.6
1961	Ashton Schultz	F	USHL	19.9	BUF*	25′ #167	0.69	13.5	5%	3.7y @23.6	000	1.6
1972	Josh Bloom	F	AHLPRO	23.2	BUF*	21′ #95	0.1	3.5	5%	1.7y @24.9	000	1.4
2036	Matteo Costantini	F	AHLPRO	24	BUF*	20′ #131	0.27	9.8	3%	0.8y @24.8	000	0.5

Who each prospect looks like

13. Daxon Rudolph85% NHL · 1.6y

Quinn Hughes 18′#7	92 pk	507 GP
Mikhail Sergachev 16′#9	66 pk	630 GP
Adam Boqvist 18′#8	43 pk	272 GP
Evan Bouchard 18′#10	95 pk	429 GP
Seth Jones 13′#4	60 pk	912 GP

29. Ilia Morozov72% NHL · 3.4y

Scott Laughton 12′#20	45 pk	745 GP
J.T. Compher 13′#35	52 pk	658 GP
Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30	46 pk	423 GP
Dylan Larkin 14′#15	83 pk	808 GP
Alex Formenton 17′#47	33 pk	109 GP

31. Radim Mrtka78% NHL · 1.4y

Erik Brannstrom 17′#15	36 pk	294 GP
Morgan Rielly 12′#5	72 pk	951 GP
Derrick Pouliot 12′#8	26 pk	226 GP
Jeremy Roy 15′#31	never stuck	0 GP
Olli Maatta 12′#22	55 pk	804 GP

63. Konsta Helenius62% NHL · 2.3y

Jakub Vrana 14′#13	62 pk	406 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Jake DeBrusk 15′#14	64 pk	628 GP
Tyler Benson 16′#32	never stuck	38 GP

186. Olivers Murnieks47% NHL · 3.8y

Hudson Fasching 13′#118	32 pk	175 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Tyler Moy 15′#175	never stuck	0 GP
Alex Formenton 17′#47	33 pk	109 GP

273. Dylan Dumont45% NHL · 4.1y

Tyler Motte 13′#121	34 pk	455 GP
Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Quentin Shore 13′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP

316. Jake Richard45% NHL · 1.4y

Rourke Chartier 14′#149	never stuck	56 GP
Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP
Jonathan Davidsson 17′#170	never stuck	6 GP
Connor Brown 12′#156	51 pk	676 GP
Alan Quine 13′#166	24 pk	106 GP

548. Maxim Strbak47% NHL · 1.4y

Kale Clague 16′#51	never stuck	94 GP
Travis Dermott 15′#34	29 pk	348 GP
Filip Hronek 16′#53	52 pk	533 GP
Josh Jacobs 14′#41	never stuck	3 GP
Josh Brook 17′#56	never stuck	0 GP

570. Gavin McCarthy42% NHL · 1.5y

Joey Keane 18′#88	never stuck	2 GP
Kale Clague 16′#51	never stuck	94 GP
Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP
Vince Dunn 15′#56	65 pk	623 GP
Filip Hronek 16′#53	52 pk	533 GP

597. Matej Pekar33% NHL · 3.8y

Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP
Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP
William Lockwood 16′#64	never stuck	54 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP

627. Luke Osburn42% NHL · 2.6y

Alexandre Carrier 15′#115	32 pk	369 GP
Vince Dunn 15′#56	65 pk	623 GP
Filip Kral 18′#149	never stuck	2 GP
Connor Corcoran 18′#154	never stuck	0 GP
Parker Wotherspoon 15′#112	31 pk	188 GP

673. Prokhor Poltapov28% NHL · 0.9y

Boris Katchouk 16′#44	23 pk	179 GP
Artur Kayumov 16′#50	never stuck	0 GP
Robin Kovacs 15′#62	never stuck	0 GP
Taylor Raddysh 16′#58	39 pk	373 GP
Carter Verhaeghe 13′#82	78 pk	488 GP