Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
63	Konsta Helenius	F	AHLPRO	20.3	BUF	24′ #14	1	36.1	62%	2.3y @22.6	93069	32.3
316	Jake Richard	F	NCAAPRO	22	BUF*	22′ #170	0.71	23.9	45%	1.4y @23.4	02353	22.3
548	Maxim Strbak	D	NCAAPRO	21.4	BUF*	23′ #45	0.49	16.4	47%	1.4y @22.8	01344	16.5
570	Gavin McCarthy	D	NCAAPRO	21.2	BUF*	23′ #86	0.58	19.6	42%	1.5y @22.7	01143	16
673	Prokhor Poltapov	F	KHLPRO	23.5	BUF*	21′ #33	0.59	37.1	28%	1y @24.5	0039	13.9
947	Viktor Neuchev	F	AHLPRO	22.8	BUF*	22′ #74	0.42	15.1	25%	0.9y @23.7	0030	10.2
988	Patrick Geary	D	NCAAPRO	22.5	BUF*	24′ #172	0.31	10.6	30%	2.4y @24.9	0029	9.8
1030	Norwin Panocha	D	DELPRO	21.5	BUF*	23′ #205	0.09	3.2	28%	2.6y @24.1	0026	9.1
1188	Sean Keohane	D	NCAAPRO	21.8	BUF*	23′ #173	0.09	3	25%	2.3y @24.1	0024	7.3
1362	Vsevolod Komarov	D	AHLPRO	22.6	BUF	22′ #134	0.2	7.2	17%	2.8y @25.4	0024	5.9
1368	Olivier Nadeau	F	AHLPRO	23.6	BUF*	21′ #97	0.46	16.8	12%	2.8y @26.4	0031	5.8
1389	Nikita Novikov	D	AHLPRO	23.1	BUF*	21′ #188	0.33	12	20%	2.7y @25.8	0024	5.5
1946	William Von Barnekow Lofberg	F	SHLPRO	23.8	BUF*	21′ #161	0.18	8.6	5%	1.6y @25.4	000	1.6
1973	Josh Bloom	F	AHLPRO	23.2	BUF*	21′ #95	0.1	3.5	5%	1.7y @24.9	000	1.4
2037	Matteo Costantini	F	AHLPRO	24	BUF*	20′ #131	0.27	9.8	3%	0.8y @24.8	000	0.5

Who each prospect looks like

63. Konsta Helenius62% NHL · 2.3y

Jakub Vrana 14′#13	62 pk	406 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Jake DeBrusk 15′#14	64 pk	628 GP
Tyler Benson 16′#32	never stuck	38 GP

316. Jake Richard45% NHL · 1.4y

Rourke Chartier 14′#149	never stuck	56 GP
Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP
Jonathan Davidsson 17′#170	never stuck	6 GP
Connor Brown 12′#156	51 pk	676 GP
Alan Quine 13′#166	24 pk	106 GP

548. Maxim Strbak47% NHL · 1.4y

Kale Clague 16′#51	never stuck	94 GP
Travis Dermott 15′#34	29 pk	348 GP
Filip Hronek 16′#53	52 pk	533 GP
Josh Jacobs 14′#41	never stuck	3 GP
Josh Brook 17′#56	never stuck	0 GP

570. Gavin McCarthy42% NHL · 1.5y

Joey Keane 18′#88	never stuck	2 GP
Kale Clague 16′#51	never stuck	94 GP
Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP
Vince Dunn 15′#56	65 pk	623 GP
Filip Hronek 16′#53	52 pk	533 GP

673. Prokhor Poltapov28% NHL · 1y

Boris Katchouk 16′#44	23 pk	179 GP
Artur Kayumov 16′#50	never stuck	0 GP
Robin Kovacs 15′#62	never stuck	0 GP
Taylor Raddysh 16′#58	39 pk	373 GP
Carter Verhaeghe 13′#82	78 pk	488 GP

947. Viktor Neuchev25% NHL · 0.9y

Jonathan Ang 16′#94	never stuck	0 GP
Anton Karlsson 14′#87	never stuck	0 GP
Jonathan Gruden 18′#95	never stuck	16 GP
Yakov Trenin 15′#55	26 pk	457 GP
Juho Lammikko 14′#65	16 pk	183 GP

988. Patrick Geary30% NHL · 2.4y

Tyler Tucker 18′#200	20 pk	159 GP
Jakub Galvas 17′#150	never stuck	6 GP
Connor Hobbs 15′#143	never stuck	0 GP
MacKenzie Weegar 13′#206	55 pk	629 GP
Justin Hache 12′#208	never stuck	0 GP

1030. Norwin Panocha28% NHL · 2.6y

Simon Bourque 15′#177	never stuck	0 GP
Tyler Ganly 13′#156	never stuck	0 GP
Anton Lindholm 14′#144	never stuck	66 GP
Tim Berni 18′#159	never stuck	59 GP
Sebastian Walfridsson 17′#151	never stuck	0 GP

1188. Sean Keohane25% NHL · 2.3y

Dylan Labbe 13′#107	never stuck	0 GP
Antti Palojarvi 17′#186	never stuck	0 GP
Ryan Culkin 12′#124	never stuck	0 GP
Robin Press 13′#211	never stuck	0 GP
Dawson Barteaux 18′#168	never stuck	0 GP

1362. Vsevolod Komarov17% NHL · 2.8y

Dawson Barteaux 18′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Clifton 13′#133	24 pk	434 GP
Niklas Tikkinen 12′#148	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Brodzinski 13′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Jake Walman 14′#82	52 pk	320 GP

1368. Olivier Nadeau12% NHL · 2.8y

Lukas Vejdemo 15′#87	never stuck	13 GP
Michael Spacek 15′#108	never stuck	0 GP
Kyle Platzer 13′#96	never stuck	0 GP
Martin Pospisil 18′#105	31 pk	166 GP
Jonny Brodzinski 13′#148	31 pk	264 GP

1389. Nikita Novikov20% NHL · 2.7y

Niklas Tikkinen 12′#148	never stuck	0 GP
MacKenzie Weegar 13′#206	55 pk	629 GP
Luc Snuggerud 14′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Ville Rasanen 17′#197	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Clifton 13′#133	24 pk	434 GP