Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
13	Daxon Rudolph★	D	WHL	18.5	BUF*	26′ #4	1.15	28.2	85%	1.6y @20.1	254979	46.4
29	Ilia Morozov★	F	NCAA	18	BUF	26′ #20	0.56	18.7	72%	3.4y @21.4	04383	37.8
31	Radim Mrtka★	D	WHL	19.2	BUF	25′ #9	0.79	19.5	78%	1.4y @20.6	153372	37.6
186	Olivers Murnieks	F	LHJMQ	18.1	BUF*	26′ #124	0.65	14.8	47%	3.8y @21.9	01983	27
273	Dylan Dumont	F	LHJMQ	18	BUF*	26′ #188	0.71	16.3	45%	4.1y @22.1	0057	23.7
597	Matej Pekar	F	WHL	18.9	BUF*	18′ #94	0.83	20.3	33%	3.9y @22.8	0046	15.5
627	Luke Osburn	D	NCAA	19.9	BUF*	24′ #108	0.64	21.4	42%	2.6y @22.5	01143	15.1
691	Brodie Ziemer	F	NCAA	20.5	BUF*	24′ #71	1	33.6	30%	3.3y @23.8	0035	13.7
845	Noah Laberge	D	LHJMQ	19.9	BUF*	25′ #135	0.9	20.7	38%	4.2y @24.1	0031	11.5
1031	Adam Kleber	D	NCAA	20.4	BUF*	24′ #42	0.3	10.1	25%	3.4y @23.8	0029	9.1
1128	Ethan Miedema	F	OHL	21.4	BUF*	23′ #109	0.69	17	23%	1.6y @23	0024	7.9
1136	Melvin Novotny	F	USHL	19.4	BUF*	25′ #195	1.19	23.4	15%	3.2y @22.6	0044	7.8
1232	David Bedkowski	D	OHL	19.7	BUF*	25′ #71	0.43	10.7	23%	3.1y @22.8	0025	6.9
1477	Ryan Rucinski	F	USHL	19.7	BUF*	25′ #219	1.05	20.7	10%	3y @22.7	000	4.9
1490	Simon-Pier Brunet	D	LHJMQ	20.8	BUF*	24′ #123	0.48	11.1	15%	4y @24.8	0019	4.8
1512	Christopher Brown	F	OHL	20.6	BUF*	14′ #151	0.87	21.3	10%	2.8y @23.4	0012	4.5
1877	Vasily Zelenov	F	NCAA	20.5	BUF*	24′ #204	0.68	22.8	7%	2.5y @23	000	2.4
1962	Ashton Schultz	F	USHL	19.9	BUF*	25′ #167	0.69	13.5	5%	3.7y @23.6	000	1.6

Who each prospect looks like

13. Daxon Rudolph85% NHL · 1.6y

Quinn Hughes 18′#7	92 pk	507 GP
Mikhail Sergachev 16′#9	66 pk	630 GP
Adam Boqvist 18′#8	43 pk	272 GP
Evan Bouchard 18′#10	95 pk	429 GP
Seth Jones 13′#4	60 pk	912 GP

29. Ilia Morozov72% NHL · 3.4y

Scott Laughton 12′#20	45 pk	745 GP
J.T. Compher 13′#35	52 pk	658 GP
Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30	46 pk	423 GP
Dylan Larkin 14′#15	83 pk	808 GP
Alex Formenton 17′#47	33 pk	109 GP

31. Radim Mrtka78% NHL · 1.4y

Erik Brannstrom 17′#15	36 pk	294 GP
Morgan Rielly 12′#5	72 pk	951 GP
Derrick Pouliot 12′#8	26 pk	226 GP
Jeremy Roy 15′#31	never stuck	0 GP
Olli Maatta 12′#22	55 pk	804 GP

186. Olivers Murnieks47% NHL · 3.8y

Hudson Fasching 13′#118	32 pk	175 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Tyler Moy 15′#175	never stuck	0 GP
Alex Formenton 17′#47	33 pk	109 GP

273. Dylan Dumont45% NHL · 4.1y

Tyler Motte 13′#121	34 pk	455 GP
Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Quentin Shore 13′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP

597. Matej Pekar33% NHL · 3.9y

Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP
Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP
William Lockwood 16′#64	never stuck	54 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP

627. Luke Osburn42% NHL · 2.6y

Alexandre Carrier 15′#115	32 pk	369 GP
Vince Dunn 15′#56	65 pk	623 GP
Filip Kral 18′#149	never stuck	2 GP
Connor Corcoran 18′#154	never stuck	0 GP
Parker Wotherspoon 15′#112	31 pk	188 GP

691. Brodie Ziemer30% NHL · 3.3y

Jake Leschyshyn 17′#62	never stuck	77 GP
Michael Amadio 14′#90	35 pk	522 GP
Emil Bemstrom 17′#117	33 pk	242 GP
Logan Hutsko 18′#89	never stuck	0 GP
Tim Bozon 12′#64	never stuck	0 GP

845. Noah Laberge38% NHL · 4.2y

Cale Fleury 17′#87	11 pk	100 GP
Declan Chisholm 18′#150	23 pk	125 GP
Wyatte Wylie 18′#127	never stuck	0 GP
Parker Wotherspoon 15′#112	31 pk	188 GP
Alexandre Carrier 15′#115	32 pk	369 GP

1031. Adam Kleber25% NHL · 3.4y

Matthew Spencer 15′#44	never stuck	0 GP
Axel Andersson 18′#57	never stuck	0 GP
Jared McIsaac 18′#36	never stuck	0 GP
Benjamin Mirageas 17′#77	never stuck	0 GP
Ty Emberson 18′#73	27 pk	178 GP

1128. Ethan Miedema23% NHL · 1.6y

Maksim Sushko 17′#107	never stuck	2 GP
Austin Poganski 14′#110	never stuck	22 GP
Taylor Leier 12′#117	never stuck	55 GP
Damien Riat 16′#117	never stuck	0 GP
Cole Ully 13′#131	never stuck	0 GP

1136. Melvin Novotny15% NHL · 3.2y

Vinnie Hinostroza 12′#169	44 pk	477 GP
Reid Duke 14′#169	never stuck	0 GP
Dominic Toninato 12′#126	20 pk	197 GP
Frederik Tiffels 15′#167	never stuck	0 GP
John McCarron 12′#153	never stuck	0 GP