Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Daxon Rudolph★ | D | WHL | 18.5 | BUF* | 26′ #4 | 1.15 | 28.2 | 85% | 1.6y @20.1 | 254979 | 46.4 |
| 31 | Radim Mrtka★ | D | WHL | 19.2 | BUF | 25′ #9 | 0.79 | 19.5 | 78% | 1.4y @20.6 | 153372 | 37.6 |
| 597 | Matej Pekar | F | WHL | 18.9 | BUF* | 18′ #94 | 0.83 | 20.3 | 33% | 3.9y @22.8 | 0046 | 15.5 |
Who each prospect looks like
13. Daxon Rudolph85% NHL · 1.6y
| Quinn Hughes 18′#7 | 92 pk | 507 GP |
| Mikhail Sergachev 16′#9 | 66 pk | 630 GP |
| Adam Boqvist 18′#8 | 43 pk | 272 GP |
| Evan Bouchard 18′#10 | 95 pk | 429 GP |
| Seth Jones 13′#4 | 60 pk | 912 GP |
31. Radim Mrtka78% NHL · 1.4y
| Erik Brannstrom 17′#15 | 36 pk | 294 GP |
| Morgan Rielly 12′#5 | 72 pk | 951 GP |
| Derrick Pouliot 12′#8 | 26 pk | 226 GP |
| Jeremy Roy 15′#31 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Olli Maatta 12′#22 | 55 pk | 804 GP |
597. Matej Pekar33% NHL · 3.9y
| Jake Guentzel 13′#77 | 91 pk | 681 GP |
| Luke Johnson 13′#134 | never stuck | 32 GP |
| Jonne Tammela 15′#118 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| William Lockwood 16′#64 | never stuck | 54 GP |
| Shane Eiserman 14′#100 | never stuck | 0 GP |