Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
29	Ilia Morozov★	F	NCAA	18	BUF	26′ #20	0.56	18.7	72%	3.4y @21.4	04383	37.8
316	Jake Richard	F	NCAAPRO	22	BUF*	22′ #170	0.71	23.9	45%	1.4y @23.4	02353	22.3
548	Maxim Strbak	D	NCAAPRO	21.4	BUF*	23′ #45	0.49	16.4	47%	1.4y @22.8	01344	16.5
570	Gavin McCarthy	D	NCAAPRO	21.2	BUF*	23′ #86	0.58	19.6	42%	1.5y @22.7	01143	16
627	Luke Osburn	D	NCAA	19.9	BUF*	24′ #108	0.64	21.4	42%	2.6y @22.5	01143	15.1
691	Brodie Ziemer	F	NCAA	20.5	BUF*	24′ #71	1	33.6	30%	3.3y @23.8	0035	13.7
988	Patrick Geary	D	NCAAPRO	22.5	BUF*	24′ #172	0.31	10.6	30%	2.4y @24.9	0029	9.8
1031	Adam Kleber	D	NCAA	20.4	BUF*	24′ #42	0.3	10.1	25%	3.4y @23.8	0029	9.1
1188	Sean Keohane	D	NCAAPRO	21.8	BUF*	23′ #173	0.09	3	25%	2.3y @24.1	0024	7.3
1877	Vasily Zelenov	F	NCAA	20.5	BUF*	24′ #204	0.68	22.8	7%	2.5y @23	000	2.4

Who each prospect looks like

29. Ilia Morozov72% NHL · 3.4y

Scott Laughton 12′#20	45 pk	745 GP
J.T. Compher 13′#35	52 pk	658 GP
Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30	46 pk	423 GP
Dylan Larkin 14′#15	83 pk	808 GP
Alex Formenton 17′#47	33 pk	109 GP

316. Jake Richard45% NHL · 1.4y

Rourke Chartier 14′#149	never stuck	56 GP
Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP
Jonathan Davidsson 17′#170	never stuck	6 GP
Connor Brown 12′#156	51 pk	676 GP
Alan Quine 13′#166	24 pk	106 GP

548. Maxim Strbak47% NHL · 1.4y

Kale Clague 16′#51	never stuck	94 GP
Travis Dermott 15′#34	29 pk	348 GP
Filip Hronek 16′#53	52 pk	533 GP
Josh Jacobs 14′#41	never stuck	3 GP
Josh Brook 17′#56	never stuck	0 GP

570. Gavin McCarthy42% NHL · 1.5y

Joey Keane 18′#88	never stuck	2 GP
Kale Clague 16′#51	never stuck	94 GP
Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP
Vince Dunn 15′#56	65 pk	623 GP
Filip Hronek 16′#53	52 pk	533 GP

627. Luke Osburn42% NHL · 2.6y

Alexandre Carrier 15′#115	32 pk	369 GP
Vince Dunn 15′#56	65 pk	623 GP
Filip Kral 18′#149	never stuck	2 GP
Connor Corcoran 18′#154	never stuck	0 GP
Parker Wotherspoon 15′#112	31 pk	188 GP

691. Brodie Ziemer30% NHL · 3.3y

Jake Leschyshyn 17′#62	never stuck	77 GP
Michael Amadio 14′#90	35 pk	522 GP
Emil Bemstrom 17′#117	33 pk	242 GP
Logan Hutsko 18′#89	never stuck	0 GP
Tim Bozon 12′#64	never stuck	0 GP

988. Patrick Geary30% NHL · 2.4y

Tyler Tucker 18′#200	20 pk	159 GP
Jakub Galvas 17′#150	never stuck	6 GP
Connor Hobbs 15′#143	never stuck	0 GP
MacKenzie Weegar 13′#206	55 pk	629 GP
Justin Hache 12′#208	never stuck	0 GP

1031. Adam Kleber25% NHL · 3.4y

Matthew Spencer 15′#44	never stuck	0 GP
Axel Andersson 18′#57	never stuck	0 GP
Jared McIsaac 18′#36	never stuck	0 GP
Benjamin Mirageas 17′#77	never stuck	0 GP
Ty Emberson 18′#73	27 pk	178 GP

1188. Sean Keohane25% NHL · 2.3y

Dylan Labbe 13′#107	never stuck	0 GP
Antti Palojarvi 17′#186	never stuck	0 GP
Ryan Culkin 12′#124	never stuck	0 GP
Robin Press 13′#211	never stuck	0 GP
Dawson Barteaux 18′#168	never stuck	0 GP

1877. Vasily Zelenov7% NHL · 2.5y

Blaine Byron 13′#179	never stuck	0 GP
Aarne Talvitie 17′#160	never stuck	0 GP
Christopher Brown 14′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Tomas Hyka 12′#171	never stuck	27 GP
Viktor Crus Rydberg 13′#136	never stuck	0 GP