Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
186	Olivers Murnieks	F	LHJMQ	18.1	BUF*	26′ #124	0.65	14.8	47%	3.8y @21.9	01983	27
273	Dylan Dumont	F	LHJMQ	18	BUF*	26′ #188	0.71	16.3	45%	4.1y @22.1	0057	23.7
845	Noah Laberge	D	LHJMQ	19.9	BUF*	25′ #135	0.9	20.7	38%	4.2y @24.1	0031	11.5
1490	Simon-Pier Brunet	D	LHJMQ	20.8	BUF*	24′ #123	0.48	11.1	15%	4y @24.8	0019	4.8

Who each prospect looks like

186. Olivers Murnieks47% NHL · 3.8y

Hudson Fasching 13′#118	32 pk	175 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Tyler Moy 15′#175	never stuck	0 GP
Alex Formenton 17′#47	33 pk	109 GP

273. Dylan Dumont45% NHL · 4.1y

Tyler Motte 13′#121	34 pk	455 GP
Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Quentin Shore 13′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP

845. Noah Laberge38% NHL · 4.2y

Cale Fleury 17′#87	11 pk	100 GP
Declan Chisholm 18′#150	23 pk	125 GP
Wyatte Wylie 18′#127	never stuck	0 GP
Parker Wotherspoon 15′#112	31 pk	188 GP
Alexandre Carrier 15′#115	32 pk	369 GP

1490. Simon-Pier Brunet15% NHL · 4y

Matthew Berkovitz 14′#123	never stuck	0 GP
Ryan Shea 15′#121	36 pk	150 GP
Jan Kostalek 13′#114	never stuck	0 GP
Cole Candella 16′#140	never stuck	0 GP
Gianluca Curcuruto 12′#182	never stuck	0 GP