Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
1	Daxon Rudolph★	D	WHL	18.5	BUF*	26′ #4	1.15	28.2	85%	1.6y @20.1	254979	46.4
6	Radim Mrtka★	D	WHL	19.2	BUF	25′ #9	0.79	19.5	78%	1.4y @20.6	153372	37.6
92	Maxim Strbak	D	NCAAPRO	21.4	BUF*	23′ #45	0.49	16.4	47%	1.4y @22.8	01344	16.5
98	Gavin McCarthy	D	NCAAPRO	21.2	BUF*	23′ #86	0.58	19.6	42%	1.5y @22.7	01143	16
114	Luke Osburn	D	NCAA	19.9	BUF*	24′ #108	0.64	21.4	42%	2.6y @22.5	01143	15.1
193	Noah Laberge	D	LHJMQ	19.9	BUF*	25′ #135	0.9	20.7	38%	4.2y @24.1	0031	11.5
272	Patrick Geary	D	NCAAPRO	22.5	BUF*	24′ #172	0.31	10.6	30%	2.4y @24.9	0029	9.8
294	Norwin Panocha	D	DELPRO	21.5	BUF*	23′ #205	0.09	3.2	28%	2.6y @24.1	0026	9.1
295	Adam Kleber	D	NCAA	20.4	BUF*	24′ #42	0.3	10.1	25%	3.4y @23.8	0029	9.1
363	Sean Keohane	D	NCAAPRO	21.8	BUF*	23′ #173	0.09	3	25%	2.3y @24.1	0024	7.3
379	David Bedkowski	D	OHL	19.7	BUF*	25′ #71	0.43	10.7	23%	3.1y @22.8	0025	6.9
427	Vsevolod Komarov	D	AHLPRO	22.6	BUF	22′ #134	0.2	7.2	17%	2.8y @25.4	0024	5.9
441	Nikita Novikov	D	AHLPRO	23.1	BUF*	21′ #188	0.33	12	20%	2.7y @25.8	0024	5.5
473	Simon-Pier Brunet	D	LHJMQ	20.8	BUF*	24′ #123	0.48	11.1	15%	4y @24.8	0019	4.8

Who each prospect looks like

1. Daxon Rudolph85% NHL · 1.6y

Quinn Hughes 18′#7	92 pk	507 GP
Mikhail Sergachev 16′#9	66 pk	630 GP
Adam Boqvist 18′#8	43 pk	272 GP
Evan Bouchard 18′#10	95 pk	429 GP
Seth Jones 13′#4	60 pk	912 GP

6. Radim Mrtka78% NHL · 1.4y

Erik Brannstrom 17′#15	36 pk	294 GP
Morgan Rielly 12′#5	72 pk	951 GP
Derrick Pouliot 12′#8	26 pk	226 GP
Jeremy Roy 15′#31	never stuck	0 GP
Olli Maatta 12′#22	55 pk	804 GP

92. Maxim Strbak47% NHL · 1.4y

Kale Clague 16′#51	never stuck	94 GP
Travis Dermott 15′#34	29 pk	348 GP
Filip Hronek 16′#53	52 pk	533 GP
Josh Jacobs 14′#41	never stuck	3 GP
Josh Brook 17′#56	never stuck	0 GP

98. Gavin McCarthy42% NHL · 1.5y

Joey Keane 18′#88	never stuck	2 GP
Kale Clague 16′#51	never stuck	94 GP
Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP
Vince Dunn 15′#56	65 pk	623 GP
Filip Hronek 16′#53	52 pk	533 GP

114. Luke Osburn42% NHL · 2.6y

Alexandre Carrier 15′#115	32 pk	369 GP
Vince Dunn 15′#56	65 pk	623 GP
Filip Kral 18′#149	never stuck	2 GP
Connor Corcoran 18′#154	never stuck	0 GP
Parker Wotherspoon 15′#112	31 pk	188 GP

193. Noah Laberge38% NHL · 4.2y

Cale Fleury 17′#87	11 pk	100 GP
Declan Chisholm 18′#150	23 pk	125 GP
Wyatte Wylie 18′#127	never stuck	0 GP
Parker Wotherspoon 15′#112	31 pk	188 GP
Alexandre Carrier 15′#115	32 pk	369 GP

272. Patrick Geary30% NHL · 2.4y

Tyler Tucker 18′#200	20 pk	159 GP
Jakub Galvas 17′#150	never stuck	6 GP
Connor Hobbs 15′#143	never stuck	0 GP
MacKenzie Weegar 13′#206	55 pk	629 GP
Justin Hache 12′#208	never stuck	0 GP

294. Norwin Panocha28% NHL · 2.6y

Simon Bourque 15′#177	never stuck	0 GP
Tyler Ganly 13′#156	never stuck	0 GP
Anton Lindholm 14′#144	never stuck	66 GP
Tim Berni 18′#159	never stuck	59 GP
Sebastian Walfridsson 17′#151	never stuck	0 GP

295. Adam Kleber25% NHL · 3.4y

Matthew Spencer 15′#44	never stuck	0 GP
Axel Andersson 18′#57	never stuck	0 GP
Jared McIsaac 18′#36	never stuck	0 GP
Benjamin Mirageas 17′#77	never stuck	0 GP
Ty Emberson 18′#73	27 pk	178 GP

363. Sean Keohane25% NHL · 2.3y

Dylan Labbe 13′#107	never stuck	0 GP
Antti Palojarvi 17′#186	never stuck	0 GP
Ryan Culkin 12′#124	never stuck	0 GP
Robin Press 13′#211	never stuck	0 GP
Dawson Barteaux 18′#168	never stuck	0 GP

379. David Bedkowski23% NHL · 3.1y

Luke Green 16′#79	never stuck	0 GP
Nico Gross 18′#101	never stuck	0 GP
Dalton Thrower 12′#51	never stuck	0 GP
Noel Hoefenmayer 17′#108	never stuck	0 GP
Roland McKeown 14′#50	never stuck	16 GP

427. Vsevolod Komarov17% NHL · 2.8y

Dawson Barteaux 18′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Clifton 13′#133	24 pk	434 GP
Niklas Tikkinen 12′#148	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Brodzinski 13′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Jake Walman 14′#82	52 pk	320 GP