Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
5	James Hagens★	F	NCAA	19.8	BOS	25′ #7	1.38	46.5	88%	1.2y @21	416297	60
161	Matvei Kotkov	F	MHL	18	BOS*	26′ #104	0.86	12.7	50%	3.9y @21.9	02483	27.8
166	Christopher Pelosi	F	NCAAPRO	21.5	BOS*	23′ #92	0.97	32.7	62%	1.5y @23	73155	27.5
221	Dean Letourneau	F	NCAA	20.5	BOS	24′ #25	1.08	36.4	53%	2.3y @22.8	02553	25.8
271	Beckett Hendrickson	F	NCAAPRO	21.2	BOS*	23′ #124	0.56	18.7	47%	1.6y @22.8	02558	23.8
355	Matthew Poitras	F	AHLPRO	22.4	BOS*	22′ #54	0.64	23	53%	1.2y @23.6	02438	21.3
504	Dans Locmelis	F	AHLPRO	22.6	BOS*	22′ #119	0.65	23.5	35%	1.5y @24.1	01237	17.5
676	Ryan Walsh	F	NCAAPRO	23	BOS*	23′ #188	1	33.6	25%	1.4y @24.4	0041	13.9
747	Andre Gasseau	F	NCAAPRO	23.1	BOS*	21′ #213	1	33.6	20%	1.3y @24.4	0041	12.8
798	Casper Nassen	F	NCAAPRO	22.4	BOS*	23′ #214	0.5	16.8	20%	0.6y @23	0036	12.1
802	Frederic Brunet	D	AHLPRO	23	BOS*	22′ #132	0.55	20	33%	1.2y @24.2	0037	11.9
1012	Kristian Kostadinski	D	NCAAPRO	21.3	BOS*	23′ #220	0.09	3	28%	2.8y @24.1	0026	9.3
1073	Cooper Simpson	F	USHL	19.5	BOS*	25′ #79	1.21	23.9	25%	3.6y @23.1	0038	8.7
1115	Cullen Mccrate	D	USHL	19.3	BOS*	26′ #216	0.49	9.7	23%	4.4y @23.7	0029	8.2
1121	William Moore	F	NCAA	19.4	BOS*	25′ #51	0.3	10.2	25%	4.1y @23.5	0032	8.1
1168	Elliott Groenewold	D	NCAA	20.5	BOS*	24′ #110	0.5	16.8	15%	3.4y @23.9	0026	7.5
1189	Jackson Edward	D	AHLPRO	22.5	BOS*	22′ #200	0.16	5.8	20%	2.9y @25.4	0026	7.2
1258	Cole Chandler	F	LHJMQ	19.3	BOS*	25′ #133	0.84	19.3	15%	3.8y @23.1	0020	6.8
1345	Brett Harrison	F	AHLPRO	23.1	BOS*	21′ #85	0.37	13.2	15%	1y @24.1	0022	6
1440	Brett Harrison	F	AHLPRO	23.2	BOS*	21′ #85	0.37	13.3	12%	1y @24.2	0020	5.1
1491	Ty Gallagher	D	AHLPRO	23.5	BOS*	21′ #217	0.47	16.8	12%	1.4y @24.9	0024	4.7
1913	Jonathan Morello	F	NCAA	20.1	BOS*	24′ #154	0.36	12.1	3%	2.6y @22.7	000	2
1914	Ryan Mast	D	AHLPRO	23.6	BOS*	21′ #181	0.3	11	7%	2.2y @25.8	000	1.9
2047	Kirill Yemelyanov	F	MHL	19.6	BOS*	25′ #165	1.04	15.3	0%	—	000	0

Who each prospect looks like

5. James Hagens88% NHL · 1.2y

Timo Meier 15′#9	81 pk	698 GP
Robby Fabbri 14′#21	49 pk	463 GP
Mitch Marner 15′#4	110 pk	738 GP
Luke Kunin 16′#15	41 pk	496 GP
Barrett Hayton 18′#5	46 pk	358 GP

161. Matvei Kotkov50% NHL · 3.9y

Hudson Fasching 13′#118	32 pk	175 GP
Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Alex Formenton 17′#47	33 pk	109 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP

166. Christopher Pelosi62% NHL · 1.5y

Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP
Anton Slepyshev 13′#88	20 pk	102 GP
Jacob Peterson 17′#132	never stuck	83 GP
Alan Quine 13′#166	24 pk	106 GP
Rudolfs Balcers 15′#142	34 pk	170 GP

221. Dean Letourneau53% NHL · 2.3y

Brendan Lemieux 14′#31	25 pk	307 GP
Adam Erne 13′#33	36 pk	424 GP
Kieffer Bellows 16′#19	35 pk	114 GP
John Quenneville 14′#30	never stuck	42 GP
Boris Katchouk 16′#44	23 pk	179 GP

271. Beckett Hendrickson47% NHL · 1.6y

Philipp Kurashev 18′#120	59 pk	360 GP
Michael Amadio 14′#90	35 pk	522 GP
Mikhail Vorobyev 15′#104	never stuck	35 GP
Andreas Athanasiou 12′#110	58 pk	495 GP
Sasha Chmelevski 17′#185	never stuck	24 GP

355. Matthew Poitras53% NHL · 1.2y

Nicolas Aube-Kubel 14′#48	34 pk	310 GP
Alexander Volkov 17′#48	never stuck	46 GP
Jayce Hawryluk 14′#32	never stuck	98 GP
Kevin Stenlund 15′#58	28 pk	368 GP
Juho Lammikko 14′#65	16 pk	183 GP

504. Dans Locmelis35% NHL · 1.5y

Michael Bunting 14′#117	74 pk	418 GP
Garrett Pilon 16′#87	never stuck	3 GP
Connor Dewar 18′#92	32 pk	316 GP
Jonathan Davidsson 17′#170	never stuck	6 GP
Cameron Hughes 15′#165	never stuck	5 GP

676. Ryan Walsh25% NHL · 1.4y

Olle Lycksell 17′#168	never stuck	52 GP
Mason Appleton 15′#168	37 pk	465 GP
Liam Kirk 18′#189	never stuck	0 GP
Glenn Gawdin 15′#116	never stuck	13 GP
Maxim Mamin 16′#175	never stuck	73 GP

747. Andre Gasseau20% NHL · 1.3y

Liam Kirk 18′#189	never stuck	0 GP
Olle Lycksell 17′#168	never stuck	52 GP
Mason Appleton 15′#168	37 pk	465 GP
Glenn Gawdin 15′#116	never stuck	13 GP
Otto Somppi 16′#206	never stuck	0 GP

798. Casper Nassen20% NHL · 0.6y

Joel Vermin 13′#186	never stuck	24 GP
Pavel Koltygin 17′#176	never stuck	0 GP
Ryan McGregor 17′#172	never stuck	0 GP
Axel Jonsson-Fjallby 16′#147	never stuck	99 GP
Gabriel Fontaine 16′#171	never stuck	0 GP

802. Frederic Brunet33% NHL · 1.2y

Luc Snuggerud 14′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Veeti Vainio 15′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Tarmo Reunanen 16′#98	never stuck	4 GP
Vojtech Budik 16′#130	never stuck	0 GP
Colin Miller 12′#151	41 pk	590 GP

1012. Kristian Kostadinski28% NHL · 2.8y

Simon Bourque 15′#177	never stuck	0 GP
Tyler Ganly 13′#156	never stuck	0 GP
Anton Lindholm 14′#144	never stuck	66 GP
Tim Berni 18′#159	never stuck	59 GP
Sebastian Walfridsson 17′#151	never stuck	0 GP