Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | James Hagens★ | F | NCAA | 19.8 | BOS | 25′ #7 | 1.38 | 46.5 | 88% | 1.2y @21 | 416297 | 60 |
| 166 | Christopher Pelosi | F | NCAAPRO | 21.5 | BOS* | 23′ #92 | 0.97 | 32.7 | 62% | 1.5y @23 | 73155 | 27.5 |
| 221 | Dean Letourneau | F | NCAA | 20.5 | BOS | 24′ #25 | 1.08 | 36.4 | 53% | 2.3y @22.8 | 02553 | 25.8 |
| 271 | Beckett Hendrickson | F | NCAAPRO | 21.2 | BOS* | 23′ #124 | 0.56 | 18.7 | 47% | 1.6y @22.8 | 02558 | 23.8 |
| 676 | Ryan Walsh | F | NCAAPRO | 23 | BOS* | 23′ #188 | 1 | 33.6 | 25% | 1.4y @24.4 | 0041 | 13.9 |
| 747 | Andre Gasseau | F | NCAAPRO | 23.1 | BOS* | 21′ #213 | 1 | 33.6 | 20% | 1.3y @24.4 | 0041 | 12.8 |
| 798 | Casper Nassen | F | NCAAPRO | 22.4 | BOS* | 23′ #214 | 0.5 | 16.8 | 20% | 0.6y @23 | 0036 | 12.1 |
| 1012 | Kristian Kostadinski | D | NCAAPRO | 21.3 | BOS* | 23′ #220 | 0.09 | 3 | 28% | 2.8y @24.1 | 0026 | 9.3 |
| 1121 | William Moore | F | NCAA | 19.4 | BOS* | 25′ #51 | 0.3 | 10.2 | 25% | 4.1y @23.5 | 0032 | 8.1 |
| 1168 | Elliott Groenewold | D | NCAA | 20.5 | BOS* | 24′ #110 | 0.5 | 16.8 | 15% | 3.4y @23.9 | 0026 | 7.5 |
| 1913 | Jonathan Morello | F | NCAA | 20.1 | BOS* | 24′ #154 | 0.36 | 12.1 | 3% | 2.6y @22.7 | 000 | 2 |
Who each prospect looks like
5. James Hagens88% NHL · 1.2y
| Timo Meier 15′#9 | 81 pk | 698 GP |
| Robby Fabbri 14′#21 | 49 pk | 463 GP |
| Mitch Marner 15′#4 | 110 pk | 738 GP |
| Luke Kunin 16′#15 | 41 pk | 496 GP |
| Barrett Hayton 18′#5 | 46 pk | 358 GP |
166. Christopher Pelosi62% NHL · 1.5y
| Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55 | 65 pk | 660 GP |
| Anton Slepyshev 13′#88 | 20 pk | 102 GP |
| Jacob Peterson 17′#132 | never stuck | 83 GP |
| Alan Quine 13′#166 | 24 pk | 106 GP |
| Rudolfs Balcers 15′#142 | 34 pk | 170 GP |
221. Dean Letourneau53% NHL · 2.3y
| Brendan Lemieux 14′#31 | 25 pk | 307 GP |
| Adam Erne 13′#33 | 36 pk | 424 GP |
| Kieffer Bellows 16′#19 | 35 pk | 114 GP |
| John Quenneville 14′#30 | never stuck | 42 GP |
| Boris Katchouk 16′#44 | 23 pk | 179 GP |
271. Beckett Hendrickson47% NHL · 1.6y
| Philipp Kurashev 18′#120 | 59 pk | 360 GP |
| Michael Amadio 14′#90 | 35 pk | 522 GP |
| Mikhail Vorobyev 15′#104 | never stuck | 35 GP |
| Andreas Athanasiou 12′#110 | 58 pk | 495 GP |
| Sasha Chmelevski 17′#185 | never stuck | 24 GP |
676. Ryan Walsh25% NHL · 1.4y
| Olle Lycksell 17′#168 | never stuck | 52 GP |
| Mason Appleton 15′#168 | 37 pk | 465 GP |
| Liam Kirk 18′#189 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Glenn Gawdin 15′#116 | never stuck | 13 GP |
| Maxim Mamin 16′#175 | never stuck | 73 GP |
747. Andre Gasseau20% NHL · 1.3y
| Liam Kirk 18′#189 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Olle Lycksell 17′#168 | never stuck | 52 GP |
| Mason Appleton 15′#168 | 37 pk | 465 GP |
| Glenn Gawdin 15′#116 | never stuck | 13 GP |
| Otto Somppi 16′#206 | never stuck | 0 GP |
798. Casper Nassen20% NHL · 0.6y
| Joel Vermin 13′#186 | never stuck | 24 GP |
| Pavel Koltygin 17′#176 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Ryan McGregor 17′#172 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Axel Jonsson-Fjallby 16′#147 | never stuck | 99 GP |
| Gabriel Fontaine 16′#171 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1012. Kristian Kostadinski28% NHL · 2.8y
| Simon Bourque 15′#177 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Tyler Ganly 13′#156 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Anton Lindholm 14′#144 | never stuck | 66 GP |
| Tim Berni 18′#159 | never stuck | 59 GP |
| Sebastian Walfridsson 17′#151 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1121. William Moore25% NHL · 4.1y
| Mackenzie MacEachern 12′#67 | 16 pk | 131 GP |
| Joni Ikonen 17′#58 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Tyrell Goulbourne 13′#72 | never stuck | 11 GP |
| Linus Lindstrom 16′#96 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Fabian Zetterlund 17′#63 | 46 pk | 329 GP |
1168. Elliott Groenewold15% NHL · 3.4y
| Casey Fitzgerald 16′#86 | never stuck | 63 GP |
| Jesse Graham 12′#155 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Mitchell Vande Sompel 15′#82 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Christian Wolanin 15′#107 | never stuck | 86 GP |
| Jake Walman 14′#82 | 52 pk | 320 GP |
1913. Jonathan Morello3% NHL · 2.6y
| Kristian Roykas Marthinsen 17′#213 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Olle Lycksell 17′#168 | never stuck | 52 GP |
| Judd Peterson 12′#204 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Lauri Pajuniemi 18′#132 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Christopher Wilkie 15′#162 | never stuck | 0 GP |