Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
161	Matvei Kotkov	F	MHL	18	BOS*	26′ #104	0.86	12.7	50%	3.9y @21.9	02483	27.8
2047	Kirill Yemelyanov	F	MHL	19.6	BOS*	25′ #165	1.04	15.3	0%	—	000	0

Who each prospect looks like

161. Matvei Kotkov50% NHL · 3.9y

Hudson Fasching 13′#118	32 pk	175 GP
Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Alex Formenton 17′#47	33 pk	109 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP

2047. Kirill Yemelyanov0% NHL · —

Steven Spinner 14′#159	never stuck	0 GP
Liam Kirk 18′#189	never stuck	0 GP
Artur Gavrus 12′#180	never stuck	0 GP
Cristiano Digiacinto 14′#170	never stuck	0 GP
Cody Payne 12′#145	never stuck	0 GP