Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
355	Matthew Poitras	F	AHLPRO	22.4	BOS*	22′ #54	0.64	23	53%	1.2y @23.6	02438	21.3
504	Dans Locmelis	F	AHLPRO	22.6	BOS*	22′ #119	0.65	23.5	35%	1.5y @24.1	01237	17.5
802	Frederic Brunet	D	AHLPRO	23	BOS*	22′ #132	0.55	20	33%	1.2y @24.2	0037	11.9
1189	Jackson Edward	D	AHLPRO	22.5	BOS*	22′ #200	0.16	5.8	20%	2.9y @25.4	0026	7.2
1345	Brett Harrison	F	AHLPRO	23.1	BOS*	21′ #85	0.37	13.2	15%	1y @24.1	0022	6
1440	Brett Harrison	F	AHLPRO	23.2	BOS*	21′ #85	0.37	13.3	12%	1y @24.2	0020	5.1
1491	Ty Gallagher	D	AHLPRO	23.5	BOS*	21′ #217	0.47	16.8	12%	1.4y @24.9	0024	4.7
1914	Ryan Mast	D	AHLPRO	23.6	BOS*	21′ #181	0.3	11	7%	2.2y @25.8	000	1.9

Who each prospect looks like

355. Matthew Poitras53% NHL · 1.2y

Nicolas Aube-Kubel 14′#48	34 pk	310 GP
Alexander Volkov 17′#48	never stuck	46 GP
Jayce Hawryluk 14′#32	never stuck	98 GP
Kevin Stenlund 15′#58	28 pk	368 GP
Juho Lammikko 14′#65	16 pk	183 GP

504. Dans Locmelis35% NHL · 1.5y

Michael Bunting 14′#117	74 pk	418 GP
Garrett Pilon 16′#87	never stuck	3 GP
Connor Dewar 18′#92	32 pk	316 GP
Jonathan Davidsson 17′#170	never stuck	6 GP
Cameron Hughes 15′#165	never stuck	5 GP

802. Frederic Brunet33% NHL · 1.2y

Luc Snuggerud 14′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Veeti Vainio 15′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Tarmo Reunanen 16′#98	never stuck	4 GP
Vojtech Budik 16′#130	never stuck	0 GP
Colin Miller 12′#151	41 pk	590 GP

1189. Jackson Edward20% NHL · 2.9y

Tyler Tucker 18′#200	20 pk	159 GP
Dawson Barteaux 18′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Justin Hache 12′#208	never stuck	0 GP
Jakub Galvas 17′#150	never stuck	6 GP
Viktor Loov 12′#209	never stuck	4 GP

1345. Brett Harrison15% NHL · 1y

Anton Karlsson 14′#87	never stuck	0 GP
Kyle Platzer 13′#96	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Spacek 15′#108	never stuck	0 GP
Lukas Vejdemo 15′#87	never stuck	13 GP
Brad Morrison 15′#113	never stuck	0 GP

1440. Brett Harrison12% NHL · 1y

Kyle Platzer 13′#96	never stuck	0 GP
Anton Karlsson 14′#87	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Spacek 15′#108	never stuck	0 GP
Lukas Vejdemo 15′#87	never stuck	13 GP
Troy Bourke 12′#72	never stuck	0 GP

1491. Ty Gallagher12% NHL · 1.4y

Mikael Wikstrand 12′#196	never stuck	0 GP
Zachary Leslie 13′#178	never stuck	0 GP
Luc Snuggerud 14′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Matt Roy 15′#194	29 pk	517 GP
Vojtech Budik 16′#130	never stuck	0 GP

1914. Ryan Mast7% NHL · 2.2y

Gustav Bouramman 15′#201	never stuck	0 GP
Dmitry Sinitsyn 12′#183	never stuck	0 GP
Niclas Almari 16′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Colby Williams 15′#173	never stuck	0 GP
Sergei Boikov 15′#161	never stuck	0 GP