Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
99	Jonathan Castagna	F	NCAAPRO	21.3	ARI*	23′ #70	1	33.6	68%	1.7y @23	183253	29.8
388	Vadim Moroz	F	KHLPRO	22.7	ARI*	23′ #88	0.54	33.9	40%	1.5y @24.2	01951	20.4
495	Tanner Ludtke	F	NCAAPRO	21.7	ARI*	23′ #81	0.45	15.2	40%	1.3y @23	01237	17.8
572	Noel Nordh	F	AHLPRO	21.6	ARI*	23′ #72	0.35	12.6	38%	1.2y @22.8	0446	15.9
638	Artem Duda	D	AHLPRO	22.4	ARI*	22′ #36	0.48	17.4	33%	1.1y @23.5	01332	14.7
829	Matthew Morden	D	NCAAPRO	22.1	ARI*	22′ #131	0.59	19.8	33%	2y @24.1	01127	11.7
1018	Samu Bau	F	LIIGAPRO	22.3	ARI*	23′ #162	0.27	12	17%	0.9y @23.2	0025	9.2
1048	Julian Lutz	F	AHLPRO	22.5	ARI*	22′ #43	0.22	7.9	25%	1.1y @23.6	0026	8.8
1329	Miko Matikka	F	AHLPRO	22.8	ARI*	22′ #67	0.24	8.5	15%	1.2y @24	0025	6.2
1555	Cal Thomas	D	NCAAPRO	23.3	ARI*	21′ #171	0.16	5.4	15%	2.6y @25.9	0020	4.3
1807	Manix Landry	F	NLPRO	23.7	ARI*	21′ #139	0.31	13.9	10%	2.1y @25.8	000	2.9
2032	Sam Lipkin	F	AHLPRO	23.6	ARI*	21′ #223	0.18	6.6	3%	0.3y @23.9	000	0.5

Who each prospect looks like

99. Jonathan Castagna68% NHL · 1.7y

Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP
Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP
Lucas Wallmark 14′#97	31 pk	187 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Anton Slepyshev 13′#88	20 pk	102 GP

388. Vadim Moroz40% NHL · 1.5y

Mattias Janmark 13′#79	38 pk	680 GP
Adam Mascherin 18′#100	never stuck	0 GP
Aleksi Saarela 15′#89	never stuck	9 GP
Jacob Peterson 17′#132	never stuck	83 GP
Filip Ahl 15′#109	never stuck	0 GP

495. Tanner Ludtke40% NHL · 1.3y

Scott Kosmachuk 12′#70	never stuck	8 GP
Allan McShane 18′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Fabian Zetterlund 17′#63	46 pk	329 GP
Carsen Twarynski 16′#82	never stuck	22 GP
Jordan Martinook 12′#58	37 pk	797 GP

572. Noel Nordh38% NHL · 1.2y

Vaclav Karabacek 14′#49	never stuck	0 GP
Carsen Twarynski 16′#82	never stuck	22 GP
Fabian Zetterlund 17′#63	46 pk	329 GP
JC Lipon 13′#91	never stuck	9 GP
Scott Kosmachuk 12′#70	never stuck	8 GP

638. Artem Duda33% NHL · 1.1y

Josh Brook 17′#56	never stuck	0 GP
Madison Bowey 13′#53	26 pk	158 GP
Sean Durzi 18′#52	44 pk	302 GP
Jordan Schmaltz 12′#25	never stuck	42 GP
Lucas Johansen 16′#28	never stuck	9 GP

829. Matthew Morden33% NHL · 2y

Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP
Markus Nutivaara 15′#189	31 pk	275 GP
Declan Chisholm 18′#150	23 pk	125 GP
Tarmo Reunanen 16′#98	never stuck	4 GP
Andrei Mironov 15′#101	never stuck	10 GP

1018. Samu Bau17% NHL · 0.9y

Conner Bleackley 16′#144	never stuck	0 GP
Gabriel Fontaine 16′#171	never stuck	0 GP
Oskar Steen 16′#165	never stuck	60 GP
Radel Fazleev 14′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Clark Bishop 14′#127	never stuck	53 GP

1048. Julian Lutz25% NHL · 1.1y

Grant Mismash 17′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Jake Leschyshyn 17′#62	never stuck	77 GP
J.C. Beaudin 15′#71	never stuck	22 GP
Graham Knott 15′#54	never stuck	0 GP
Kody Clark 18′#47	never stuck	0 GP

1329. Miko Matikka15% NHL · 1.2y

Grant Mismash 17′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Ivan Lodnia 17′#85	never stuck	0 GP
J.C. Beaudin 15′#71	never stuck	22 GP
Jimmy Lodge 13′#84	never stuck	0 GP
Nick Henry 17′#94	never stuck	0 GP

1555. Cal Thomas15% NHL · 2.6y

Michael Brodzinski 13′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Colby Williams 15′#173	never stuck	0 GP
Aleksi Makela 13′#182	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Clifton 13′#133	24 pk	434 GP
John Nyberg 14′#165	never stuck	0 GP

1807. Manix Landry10% NHL · 2.1y

Reid Duke 14′#169	never stuck	0 GP
Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Graham McPhee 16′#149	never stuck	0 GP
Fabrice Herzog 13′#142	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Eyssimont 16′#142	33 pk	269 GP

2032. Sam Lipkin3% NHL · 0.3y

John Dahlstrom 15′#211	never stuck	0 GP
Filip Helt 16′#211	never stuck	0 GP
Bokondji Imama 15′#180	never stuck	33 GP
Spencer Smallman 15′#138	never stuck	0 GP
Daniel Walcott 14′#140	never stuck	1 GP