Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
Org:AllANAARIBOSBUFCARCBJCGYCHICOLDALDETEDMFLALAKMINMTLNJDNSHNYINYROTTPHIPITSEASJSSTLTBLTORUTAVANVGKWPGWSH
How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | Jonathan Castagna | F | NCAAPRO | 21.3 | ARI* | 23′ #70 | 1 | 33.6 | 68% | 1.7y @23 | 183253 | 29.8 |
| 495 | Tanner Ludtke | F | NCAAPRO | 21.7 | ARI* | 23′ #81 | 0.45 | 15.2 | 40% | 1.3y @23 | 01237 | 17.8 |
| 829 | Matthew Morden | D | NCAAPRO | 22.1 | ARI* | 22′ #131 | 0.59 | 19.8 | 33% | 2y @24.1 | 01127 | 11.7 |
| 1555 | Cal Thomas | D | NCAAPRO | 23.3 | ARI* | 21′ #171 | 0.16 | 5.4 | 15% | 2.6y @25.9 | 0020 | 4.3 |
Who each prospect looks like
99. Jonathan Castagna68% NHL · 1.7y
| Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55 | 65 pk | 660 GP |
| Nick Sorensen 13′#45 | never stuck | 5 GP |
| Lucas Wallmark 14′#97 | 31 pk | 187 GP |
| Jesper Boqvist 17′#36 | 34 pk | 387 GP |
| Anton Slepyshev 13′#88 | 20 pk | 102 GP |
495. Tanner Ludtke40% NHL · 1.3y
| Scott Kosmachuk 12′#70 | never stuck | 8 GP |
| Allan McShane 18′#97 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Fabian Zetterlund 17′#63 | 46 pk | 329 GP |
| Carsen Twarynski 16′#82 | never stuck | 22 GP |
| Jordan Martinook 12′#58 | 37 pk | 797 GP |
829. Matthew Morden33% NHL · 2y
| Lucas Carlsson 16′#110 | never stuck | 73 GP |
| Markus Nutivaara 15′#189 | 31 pk | 275 GP |
| Declan Chisholm 18′#150 | 23 pk | 125 GP |
| Tarmo Reunanen 16′#98 | never stuck | 4 GP |
| Andrei Mironov 15′#101 | never stuck | 10 GP |
1555. Cal Thomas15% NHL · 2.6y
| Michael Brodzinski 13′#141 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Colby Williams 15′#173 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Aleksi Makela 13′#182 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Connor Clifton 13′#133 | 24 pk | 434 GP |
| John Nyberg 14′#165 | never stuck | 0 GP |