Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 572 | Noel Nordh | F | AHLPRO | 21.6 | ARI* | 23′ #72 | 0.35 | 12.6 | 38% | 1.2y @22.8 | 0446 | 15.9 |
| 638 | Artem Duda | D | AHLPRO | 22.4 | ARI* | 22′ #36 | 0.48 | 17.4 | 33% | 1.1y @23.5 | 01332 | 14.7 |
| 1048 | Julian Lutz | F | AHLPRO | 22.5 | ARI* | 22′ #43 | 0.22 | 7.9 | 25% | 1.1y @23.6 | 0026 | 8.8 |
| 1329 | Miko Matikka | F | AHLPRO | 22.8 | ARI* | 22′ #67 | 0.24 | 8.5 | 15% | 1.2y @24 | 0025 | 6.2 |
| 2032 | Sam Lipkin | F | AHLPRO | 23.6 | ARI* | 21′ #223 | 0.18 | 6.6 | 3% | 0.3y @23.9 | 000 | 0.5 |
Who each prospect looks like
572. Noel Nordh38% NHL · 1.2y
| Vaclav Karabacek 14′#49 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Carsen Twarynski 16′#82 | never stuck | 22 GP |
| Fabian Zetterlund 17′#63 | 46 pk | 329 GP |
| JC Lipon 13′#91 | never stuck | 9 GP |
| Scott Kosmachuk 12′#70 | never stuck | 8 GP |
638. Artem Duda33% NHL · 1.1y
| Josh Brook 17′#56 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Madison Bowey 13′#53 | 26 pk | 158 GP |
| Sean Durzi 18′#52 | 44 pk | 302 GP |
| Jordan Schmaltz 12′#25 | never stuck | 42 GP |
| Lucas Johansen 16′#28 | never stuck | 9 GP |
1048. Julian Lutz25% NHL · 1.1y
| Grant Mismash 17′#61 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Jake Leschyshyn 17′#62 | never stuck | 77 GP |
| J.C. Beaudin 15′#71 | never stuck | 22 GP |
| Graham Knott 15′#54 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Kody Clark 18′#47 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1329. Miko Matikka15% NHL · 1.2y
| Grant Mismash 17′#61 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Ivan Lodnia 17′#85 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| J.C. Beaudin 15′#71 | never stuck | 22 GP |
| Jimmy Lodge 13′#84 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Nick Henry 17′#94 | never stuck | 0 GP |
2032. Sam Lipkin3% NHL · 0.3y
| John Dahlstrom 15′#211 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Filip Helt 16′#211 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Bokondji Imama 15′#180 | never stuck | 33 GP |
| Spencer Smallman 15′#138 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Daniel Walcott 14′#140 | never stuck | 1 GP |