Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | Mathis Preston★ | F | WHL | 18.1 | ANA* | 26′ #50 | 0.93 | 22.8 | 65% | 3.7y @21.8 | 03383 | 35.2 |
| 233 | Noah Kosick | F | WHL | 18 | ANA* | 26′ #192 | 0.83 | 20.4 | 47% | 4y @22 | 01958 | 25.1 |
| 684 | Tarin Smith | D | WHL | 20.4 | ANA* | 24′ #79 | 1.09 | 26.9 | 40% | 2.8y @23.2 | 0038 | 13.8 |
| 840 | Brady Turko | F | WHL | 18.9 | ANA* | 25′ #200 | 0.55 | 13.4 | 23% | 4.6y @23.5 | 0046 | 11.5 |
Who each prospect looks like
38. Mathis Preston65% NHL · 3.7y
| J.T. Compher 13′#35 | 52 pk | 658 GP |
| Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30 | 46 pk | 423 GP |
| Scott Laughton 12′#20 | 45 pk | 745 GP |
| Jarrod Maidens 12′#82 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Daniel Sprong 15′#46 | 57 pk | 374 GP |
233. Noah Kosick47% NHL · 4y
| Jarrod Maidens 12′#82 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Tyler Moy 15′#175 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Hudson Fasching 13′#118 | 32 pk | 175 GP |
| J.T. Compher 13′#35 | 52 pk | 658 GP |
| Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100 | never stuck | 2 GP |
684. Tarin Smith40% NHL · 2.8y
| Joshua Mahura 16′#85 | 25 pk | 278 GP |
| Calen Addison 18′#53 | 38 pk | 152 GP |
| Mikey Anderson 17′#103 | 26 pk | 425 GP |
| Madison Bowey 13′#53 | 26 pk | 158 GP |
| Chad Krys 16′#45 | never stuck | 0 GP |
840. Brady Turko23% NHL · 4.6y
| Luke Johnson 13′#134 | never stuck | 32 GP |
| Dominik Kubalik 13′#191 | 56 pk | 357 GP |
| Jonne Tammela 15′#118 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Matthew Deblouw 12′#186 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Shane Eiserman 14′#100 | never stuck | 0 GP |