Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
32	Roger McQueen	F	NCAA	19.9	ANA	25′ #10	0.75	25.2	65%	2.2y @22.1	203571	37.3
91	Austin Burnevik	F	NCAAPRO	21.6	ANA*	24′ #182	1.06	35.5	62%	1.4y @23	153358	30.6
164	Cruz Lucius	F	NCAAPRO	22.4	ANA	22′ #124	1.28	43	47%	1y @23.4	02965	27.5
789	Connor Hvidston	F	NCAAPRO	21.9	ANA*	22′ #139	0.5	16.8	25%	1.1y @23	0037	12.2
932	Eric Nilson	F	NCAA	19.3	ANA*	25′ #45	0.31	10.6	28%	3.8y @23.1	0032	10.5
1366	Drew Schock	D	NCAA	19.5	ANA*	25′ #101	0.26	8.8	20%	5.1y @24.6	0025	5.9
1425	Alexandre Blais	F	NCAA	20.8	ANA*	24′ #100	0.5	16.8	10%	2.1y @22.9	0020	5.3
1806	Sean Tschigerl	F	NCAAPRO	23.4	ANA*	21′ #130	0.37	12.5	10%	2.4y @25.8	000	2.9
1946	Kyle Kukkonen	F	NCAAPRO	23.8	ANA*	21′ #162	0.21	7.2	5%	1.6y @25.4	000	1.6

Who each prospect looks like

32. Roger McQueen65% NHL · 2.2y

Jake DeBrusk 15′#14	64 pk	628 GP
Vitali Kravtsov 18′#9	never stuck	64 GP
Michael McLeod 16′#12	35 pk	287 GP
Jack Roslovic 15′#25	58 pk	595 GP
Nick Ritchie 14′#10	48 pk	481 GP

91. Austin Burnevik62% NHL · 1.4y

Jacob Peterson 17′#132	never stuck	83 GP
Alan Quine 13′#166	24 pk	106 GP
Riley Damiani 18′#137	never stuck	7 GP
Connor Brown 12′#156	51 pk	676 GP
Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP

164. Cruz Lucius47% NHL · 1y

Jacob Peterson 17′#132	never stuck	83 GP
Maxim Mamin 16′#175	never stuck	73 GP
Pontus Holmberg 18′#156	29 pk	229 GP
Taylor Raddysh 16′#58	39 pk	373 GP
Olle Lycksell 17′#168	never stuck	52 GP

789. Connor Hvidston25% NHL · 1.1y

Clark Bishop 14′#127	never stuck	53 GP
Paul Cotter 18′#115	27 pk	296 GP
Axel Jonsson-Fjallby 16′#147	never stuck	99 GP
Mikhail Vorobyev 15′#104	never stuck	35 GP
Conor Garland 15′#123	65 pk	556 GP

932. Eric Nilson28% NHL · 3.8y

Joni Ikonen 17′#58	never stuck	0 GP
Fabian Zetterlund 17′#63	46 pk	329 GP
Mackenzie MacEachern 12′#67	16 pk	131 GP
Connor Hurley 13′#38	never stuck	0 GP
David Gustafsson 18′#60	15 pk	149 GP

1366. Drew Schock20% NHL · 5.1y

Nico Gross 18′#101	never stuck	0 GP
Vojtech Budik 16′#130	never stuck	0 GP
Giovanni Vallati 18′#153	never stuck	0 GP
Luke Green 16′#79	never stuck	0 GP
Dennis Busby 18′#145	never stuck	0 GP

1425. Alexandre Blais10% NHL · 2.1y

Cole Ully 13′#131	never stuck	0 GP
Alan Quine 13′#166	24 pk	106 GP
Max Willman 14′#121	never stuck	68 GP
Taylor Leier 12′#117	never stuck	55 GP
Grant Mismash 17′#61	never stuck	0 GP

1806. Sean Tschigerl10% NHL · 2.4y

Igor Shvyrev 17′#125	never stuck	0 GP
Reid Duke 14′#169	never stuck	0 GP
Daniel Walcott 14′#140	never stuck	1 GP
Michael Pezzetta 16′#160	20 pk	209 GP
Tanner Kaspick 16′#119	never stuck	0 GP

1946. Kyle Kukkonen5% NHL · 1.6y

Gregory Chase 13′#188	never stuck	0 GP
Daniel Walcott 14′#140	never stuck	1 GP
Michael Pezzetta 16′#160	20 pk	209 GP
Jeremy Grégoire 13′#176	never stuck	0 GP
John Dahlstrom 15′#211	never stuck	0 GP