Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
#PlayerPosLeagueAgeOrgDraftP/GPNHLeP(NHL)ETAUpside bandScore
256Rian ChudzinskiFLHJMQ18.6ANA*26′ #820.716.247%3.5y @22.1
0357
24.3
351Maxim MasséFLHJMQ20.4ANA*24′ #661.6237.245%2.5y @22.9
01658
21.5
1046Emile GuiteFLHJMQ19.2ANA*25′ #1591.125.315%3.8y @23
0041
8.9
1314Alexis MathieuDLHJMQ19.2ANA*25′ #1360.235.217%3.6y @22.8
0026
6.4
256. Rian Chudzinski47% NHL · 3.5y
Jarrod Maidens 12#82never stuck0 GP
Tyler Motte 13#12134 pk455 GP
Shane Eiserman 14#100never stuck0 GP
Alexandre Texier 17#4546 pk283 GP
Thomas Di Pauli 12#100never stuck2 GP
351. Maxim Massé45% NHL · 2.5y
Stelio Mattheos 17#73never stuck0 GP
Michael Amadio 14#9035 pk522 GP
Pavel Buchnevich 13#7587 pk674 GP
Brendan Leipsic 12#8933 pk187 GP
Cole Cassels 13#85never stuck0 GP
1046. Emile Guite15% NHL · 3.8y
Vinnie Hinostroza 12#16944 pk477 GP
Dominic Toninato 12#12620 pk197 GP
Brian Pinho 13#174never stuck2 GP
John McCarron 12#153never stuck0 GP
Jacob McGrew 17#159never stuck0 GP
1314. Alexis Mathieu17% NHL · 3.6y
John Gilmour 13#198never stuck37 GP
Tyler Nanne 14#142never stuck0 GP
Matt Benning 12#17526 pk465 GP
Matt Roy 15#19429 pk517 GP
Anton Cederholm 13#145never stuck0 GP