2026-27 Projections

Full-category forecasts by projected points. Method: four seasons of rates (2022-23 → 2025-26), recency-weighted (6/3/1.5/1 × games played) → regressed to position baseline by sample size, age-adjusted, goals blended with expected goals, 84-game season. Backtest-validated. The Upside view re-weights the scoring stats toward each player's recent ceiling — a draft-board read that trades accuracy for upside; Expected is the accuracy-optimal default.

These are the model's numbers. Think one is wrong? Set your own in the Advanced Projection Sandbox →

Rank by my categoriestick the ones your league counts — the order and the # column follow
#PlayerTeamPosRolePPTOIGPAgeGAP+/-PPPSHPSOGFOWHITBLK
1Nikita Kucherov TBL · RTBLRL1PP119.37633.33790127+28.242123513429
2David Pastrnak BOS · RBOSRL1PP120.08030.43773110+4.933028837829
3Mikko Rantanen DAL · RDALRL1PP119.27829.9326697+4.9380189975539
4Clayton Keller UTA · RUTARL1PP118.28128.2306393+6.4310220141132
5William Nylander TOR · RTORRL1PP118.67930.4365592-5.7290214491729
6Mitch Marner VGK · RVGKRL2PP118.07929.4246488+14.9281164983444
7Cole Caufield MTL · RMTLRL1PP117.67925.7443881+14.926025665324
8Alex DeBrincat DET · RDETRL2PP117.18228.8394281+0.7260267204239
9Beckett Sennecke ANA · RANARL2PP117.98120.7324677-4.919122939828
10Mark Stone VGK · RVGKRL1PP118.46334.4244771+19.726212743245
11Travis Konecny PHI · RPHIRL1PP118.37929.6264571+4.11531772710239
12Adrian Kempe LAK · RLAKRL1PP118.28030323871+13.51622193811637
13Kirill Marchenko CBJ · RCBJRL1PP118.27826.2304171+7.323121386040
14Ivan Demidov MTL · RMTLRL2PP115.17320.8214869+1.223013702926
15Drake Batherson OTT · ROTTRL1PP117.77928.4294069-6.93001711512426
16Dylan Guenther UTA · RUTARL2PP116.66923.5343468+2.0260221195630
17Andrei Svechnikov CAR · RCARRL1PP117.07526.5283866+0.0270191714719
18Alex Tuch WSH · RWSHRL1PP218.17830.4303464+16.7116182527689
19Bryan Rust PIT · RPITRL1PP120.17034.4273461-3.621117044361
20Matvei Michkov PHI · RPHIRL2PP115.27821.8243761-2.717018263322
21Mats Zuccarello LAK · RLAKRL1PP118.66239.1184361-3.1230138232133
22Tom Wilson WSH · RWSHRL2PP117.57532.5283159+11.01421511419458
23Rickard Rakell PIT · RPITRL1PP119.17333.4292958-6.0181181629454
24Jimmy Snuggerud STL · RSTLRL1PP117.56622.3243458+5.713017846736
25Jordan Kyrou WSH · RWSHRL1PP117.97528.4253156-0.116018942431
26Pavel Dorofeyev NYR · RNYRRL2PP116.37525.9322355-0.424020612629
27JJ Peterka BOS · RBOSRL2PP215.68024.7252954+2.810016962119
28Patrick Kane CHI · RCHIRL1PP118.46337.9173653-4.720014941821
29Quinton Byfield LAK · RLAKRL2PP217.87724.1242953+3.31111694246838
30Brock Boeser VAN · RVANRL2PP119.07829.6242852-30.7201160446130
31Luke Evangelista NSH · RNSHRL2PP116.97424.6143852+0.313016102420
32Jackson Blake CAR · RCARRL2PP116.47423.2232851+2.911016141531
33Timo Meier NJD · RNJDRL2PP217.37830282250-9.81202454313254
34Valeri Nichushkin CBJ · RCBJRL1PP218.36731.6212849+8.38114926027
35Anthony Mantha NJD · RNJDRL3PP214.47232222648+7.8110122125035
36Owen Tippett PHI · RPHIRL2PP215.97727.6252348-5.982202914551
37Jack Quinn BUF · RBUFRL1PP217.67325192948-1.411015934624
38Ryan Leonard WSH · RWSHRL3PP214.66921.7212747+0.2130159611526
39Claude Giroux OTT · ROTTRL3PP215.67138.7143246+7.51301224765426
40Josh Doan BUF · RBUFRL2PP115.97424.7212546-1.6130151137028
41Alex Laferriere LAK · RLAKRL2PP217.28024.9222445+4.25220114120845
42Matt Coronato CGY · RCGYRL1PP118.27123.9202544-11.1150174612525
43Jordan Eberle SEA · RSEARL1PP118.36736.4182443+1.3120126133934
44Jonathan Marchessault NSH · RNSHRL1PP217.97135.8182442-16.4130158188015
45Conor Garland CBJ · RCBJRL2PP216.77930.6162541-12.2111150114940
46Roman Kantserov CHI · RCHIRL3PP213.756221840+0.05019109031
47Troy Terry ANA · RANAR4629.1142640+3.3921144415
48Simon Holmstrom NYI · RNYIRL2PP216.17525.4182240+2.6449431945
49Collin Graf SJS · RSJSRL216.27224172239+1.53310677441
50Kaapo Kakko SEA · RSEARL2PP215.16725.6132638+7.37088243817
51Oliver Bjorkstrand NYR · RNYRRL3PP213.57831.5162238-8.313013177734
52Tyson Foerster PHI · RPHIRL2PP216.57024.7241438+3.010014017051
53Ryan Hartman MIN · RMINRL1PP217.17432181937-1.5701554246776
54Braeden Bowman VGK · RVGKRL2PP214.55923.3142337-5.5609032527
55Egor Chinakhov PIT · RPITRL3PP214.86425.7171936-2.46012535228
56Seth Jarvis CAR · RCARR3724.7171936+3.5113114244418
57Connor Brown NJD · RNJDRL117.77632.7142135+0.752109112435
58Mackie Samoskevich SEA · RSEARL3PP214.37223.9151935-2.7100148412832
59Zachary Bolduc MTL · RMTLRL3PP214.27323.6151833+0.6801071414339
60Ilya Mikheyev TBL · RTBLRL315.87732171733+1.91312023321
61Bobby Brink MIN · RMINRL1PP215.96925.2141933-4.760103178035
62Danila Yurov MIN · RMINRL2PP215.07322.8141832-2.730942936442
63Arseny Gritsyuk NJD · RNJDRL413.06825.5131932-1.16015046123
64Gabe Perreault NYR · RNYRRL1PP216.85321.4131731-0.1708853025
65Matthew Wood NSH · RNSHRL1PP215.96621.6151530-1.181110755126
66Porter Martone PHI · RPHIRL4PP114.155151530+0.0100130011630
67Vasily Podkolzin EDM · REDMRL2PP215.07525.3131629+7.1201211721246
68Michael Amadio OTT · ROTTRL216.17630.4121729+9.11188239645
69Matvei Gridin CGY · RCGYRL4PP114.34820.691928-4.312010041932
70Justin Brazeau PIT · RPITRL412.66528.7131427+0.8409319740
71Frank Vatrano ANA · RANARL3PP213.67532.6141227-14.9411571113252
72Anthony Beauvillier WSH · RWSHRL314.77729.3141125+3.211137339641
73Brendan Gallagher VAN · RVANRL3PP213.37034.4101323-2.84010758123
74Corey Perry LAK · RLAKR5341.4111223+0.8707872416
75Dalibor Dvorsky STL · RSTLRL4PP212.86621.3121022-2.1601033127225
76Mathieu Olivier CBJ · RCBJRL313.76529.6121022+4.40188522149
77Nino Niederreiter WPG · RWPGRL3PP213.56534.1101121-0.2509799025
78Ethen Frank WSH · RWSHRL411.46228.7101021+3.3308315142
79Maxim Shabanov MIN · RMINR522671420-1.6506703521
80Ville Koivunen PIT · RPITRL3PP214.05523.371420-3.7506531224
81Joel Armia LAK · RLAKRL413.26633.391120+0.21386226935
82Jonatan Berggren STL · RSTLRL314.45726.281220-4.6306644017
83Pontus Holmberg TBL · RTBLRL312.87027.691020+1.70081606238
84Josh Anderson MTL · RMTLRL412.47232.411819-3.902912313640
85Jonathan Lekkerimäki VAN · RVANR4212719+0.02010405823
86Adam Gaudette SJS · RSJSRL411.4653013619-2.340821355329
87Kailer Yamamoto UTA · RUTARL312.361289918+6.41062224921
88Taylor Raddysh NYR · RNYRRL411.67128.671118-0.8116865536
89Keegan Kolesar DET · RDETRL411.37929.571017-6.501671025242
90Stefan Noesen NJD · RNJDRL3PP212.65433.68816-6.56082277119
91Adam Klapka CGY · RCGYRL312.171267916-5.110761125745
92Alexander Zharovsky MTL · RMTLR326915+0.0207704818
93Tyler Boucher OTT · ROTTR457815+0.0204208325
94Justin Danforth BUF · RBUFR5933.56815-5.5117426310243
95Kasperi Kapanen EDM · REDMRL314.15630.26815-2.50073138520
96Nikita Grebenkin PHI · RPHIRL311.95623.44913-2.7004148820
97Justin Carbonneau STL · RSTLR358513+0.0207105919
98Victor Eklund NYI · RNYIR3331013+0.0203804718
99Terik Parascak WSH · RWSHR355813+0.0206405619
100Lenni Hameenaho NJD · RNJDRL411.54521.95813-0.9007703122
101Jagger Firkus SEA · RSEAR294812+0.0105103916
102Stiven Sardarian CAR · RCARR273912+0.0103804215
103Aiden Fink NSH · RNSHR293912+0.0103804416
104Michael Brandsegg-Nygård DET · RDETR325712+0.0104304818
105Cruz Lucius PIT · RPITR294812+0.0105104116
106Easton Cowan TOR · RTORRL2PP215.1275611+0.0103804315
107Nikita Klepov ANA · RANAR294711+0.0105104316
108Mikhail Ilyin PIT · RPITR254711+0.0105103314
109Mathieu Joseph EDM · REDMR5929.63811-5.101531412137
110Isak Rosen WPG · RWPGRL3PP212.54523.56511-2.2205412323
111Alexey Toropchenko STL · RSTLR6927.34610-5.20175415353
112Alexander Holtz VGK · RVGKRL410.94524.7469-2.0105643815
113Ryker Lee NSH · RNSHR23459+0.0103503513
114Fabian Lysell COL · RCOLR25459+0.0105104014
115Emil Hemming DAL · RDALR25459+0.0103903514
116Maxim Tsyplakov CGY · RCGYR5828359-5.910621010019
117Vaclav Nestrasil CHI · RCHIR22358+0.0103802912
118Cole Smith CHI · RCHIR6730.9448-5.50169717423
119Carl Grundstrom PHI · RPHIRL312.55528.8437-0.70172615924
120Liam Ruck PIT · RPITR20347+0.0102602911
121Sasha Pastujov MTL · RMTLR19347+0.0103802610
122Felix Unger Sorum CAR · RCARR19257+0.0101702510
123Sam Colangelo ANA · RANAR4124.8527-2.3104856917
124Logan O'Connor COL · RCOLR4630.1347-0.10050124224
125Jaroslav Chmelar NYR · RNYRRL49.34123.2336-0.6004407522
126Elton Hermansson LAK · RLAKR18336+0.0102602610
127Colby Barlow WPG · RWPGR27336+0.0102003615
128Taylor Ward LAK · RLAKRL49.24428.5336+0.0005054815
129Filip Mesar MTL · RMTLR20235+0.0102602711
130Chase Stillman DET · RDETR20235+0.0102604211
131Arttu Hyry DAL · RDALR3425.5224+0.301421965114
132Cole Schwindt FLA · RFLARL49.74125.4224+1.100361215017
133Jonas Lagerberg Hoen OTT · ROTTR14404+0.000350208
134Garnet Hathaway FLA · RFLAR6334.9223-2.300451223354
135Carter Mazur DET · RDETR12213+0.000140197
136Gleb Pugachyov MTL · RMTLR9123+0.000130155
137Xavier Bourgault OTT · ROTTR14123+0.000200208
138Mitchell Chaffee NYI · RNYIR3328.7213-1.1103157414
139Oskar Pettersson OTT · ROTTR12022+0.00030147
140Nikita Chibrikov WPG · RWPGR1223.6112+0.000120177
141Scott Sabourin TBL · RTBLRL48.13334.2112+0.1001607614
142Jonas Rondbjerg VGK · RVGKR3127.5011-3.600362710
143Zack MacEwen TOR · RTORR3630.2111-1.60039127913
144Oskar Olausson COL · RCOLR7011+0.00020104
145Ivan Vorobyov STL · RSTLR4011+0.0002052
146Hayden Hodgson OTT · ROTTR330.6000+0.0002062
147Judd Caulfield ANA · RANAR3000+0.0000042