Draft Value vs ADP · 2026-27

Biggest gaps between our projected multi-category value rank and consensus ADP. Positive gap = drafted later than our value (a sleeper); negative = going earlier than the projection supports.

Ranked for Norfolk in Chance — equal-weight z-scores over the categories your league counts. Consensus ADP from espn, fantrax.

💎 Undervalued · draft targets

#	Player	Tm	Pos	Our rank	ADP	Gap	z-value
1	Nikita Zadorov BOS · D	BOS	D	46	284.8	+238.8	+6.9
2	Mark Kastelic BOS · C	BOS	C	80	289.5	+209.5	+5.0
3	Jeremy Lauzon VGK · D	VGK	D	95	290.6	+195.6	+4.5
4	Jack McBain UTA · C	UTA	C	113	286.6	+173.6	+3.9
5	Adam Klapka CGY · R	CGY	R	120	290.7	+170.7	+3.5
6	Brayden Schenn NYI · C	NYI	C	126	288.4	+162.4	+3.4
7	Radko Gudas FLA · D	FLA	D	129	287.9	+158.9	+3.2
8	Anton Lundell FLA · C	FLA	C	125	279	+154.0	+3.4
9	Frank Vatrano ANA · R	ANA	R	146	291.6	+145.6	+2.9
10	Will Cuylle NYR · L	NYR	L	47	189.1	+142.1	+6.8
11	Neal Pionk WPG · D	WPG	D	134	275.6	+141.6	+3.2
12	Vasily Podkolzin EDM · R	EDM	R	152	280.6	+128.6	+2.8
13	Ridly Greig OTT · C	OTT	C	165	293	+128.0	+2.5
14	Blake Coleman MIN · L	MIN	L	136	262.5	+126.5	+3.1
15	Yakov Trenin MIN · C	MIN	C	161	284.4	+123.4	+2.7
16	Kiefer Sherwood SJS · L	SJS	L	58	179.9	+121.9	+6.4
17	Jake McCabe TOR · D	TOR	D	169	290.6	+121.6	+2.4
18	Lawson Crouse UTA · L	UTA	L	150	270.4	+120.4	+2.8
19	Darnell Nurse SJS · D	SJS	D	54	170.9	+116.9	+6.6
20	Josh Manson COL · D	COL	D	168	282.6	+114.6	+2.4
21	Sam Bennett FLA · C	FLA	C	39	152.3	+113.3	+7.3
22	Dmitri Voronkov CBJ · L	CBJ	L	182	290	+108.0	+2.0
23	Pierre-Luc Dubois WSH · C	WSH	C	149	253.1	+104.1	+2.8
24	Peyton Krebs BUF · C	BUF	C	189	291.6	+102.6	+1.9
25	Sean Walker CAR · D	CAR	D	153	255.2	+102.2	+2.8
26	Anders Lee UTA · L	UTA	L	172	274.1	+102.1	+2.2
27	Elias Lindholm BOS · C	BOS	C	139	238.7	+99.7	+3.1
28	Anton Frondell CHI · C	CHI	C	77	175.9	+98.9	+5.2
29	Kaiden Guhle MTL · D	MTL	D	193	291.9	+98.9	+1.8
30	MacKenzie Weegar UTA · D	UTA	D	27	122.9	+95.9	+8.1
31	Simon Edvinsson DET · D	DET	D	179	273.7	+94.7	+2.1
32	Jake Neighbours STL · L	STL	L	184	276.7	+92.7	+1.9
33	Jonathan Huberdeau CGY · L	CGY	L	196	287.2	+91.2	+1.7
34	Dylan Cozens OTT · C	OTT	C	23	112	+89.0	+8.4
35	Kris Letang PIT · D	PIT	D	200	288.9	+88.9	+1.6
36	K'Andre Miller CAR · D	CAR	D	163	250.8	+87.8	+2.6
37	Vincent Trocheck UTA · C	UTA	C	30	117.1	+87.1	+7.9
38	Adam Larsson SEA · D	SEA	D	208	292.6	+84.6	+1.5
39	Martin Fehérváry WSH · D	WSH	D	207	290.2	+83.2	+1.5
40	Roman Kantserov CHI · R	CHI	R	205	288	+83.0	+1.5

⚠ Overvalued · ADP reaches

#	Player	Tm	Pos	Our rank	ADP	Gap	z-value
1	Zayne Parekh CGY · D	CGY	D	557	195.8	-361.2	-3.8
2	Stephen Halliday OTT · C	OTT	C	647	291.4	-355.6	-5.9
3	Cole Hutson WSH · D	WSH	D	476	124.9	-351.1	-2.6
4	Tyler Seguin DAL · C	DAL	C	625	275.2	-349.8	-5.1
5	Konsta Helenius BUF · C	BUF	C	634	291.7	-342.3	-5.4
6	Troy Terry ANA · R	ANA	R	499	163	-336.0	-2.9
7	Tim Washe ANA · C	ANA	C	621	291.4	-329.6	-5.0
8	Rasmus Sandin WSH · D	WSH	D	619	291.2	-327.8	-5.0
9	Maxim Shabanov MIN · R	MIN	R	616	291.8	-324.2	-4.9
10	Michael Misa SJS · C	SJS	C	540	217.3	-322.7	-3.4
11	Philip Broberg STL · D	STL	D	473	170.7	-302.3	-2.5
12	Chase Reid SEA · D	SEA	D	569	281.1	-287.9	-3.9
13	Gabe Perreault NYR · R	NYR	R	518	244.5	-273.5	-3.1
14	John Marino UTA · D	UTA	D	560	290.5	-269.5	-3.8
15	Marat Khusnutdinov BOS · C	BOS	C	561	292.3	-268.7	-3.8
16	Simon Nemec CGY · D	CGY	D	415	155	-260.0	-1.9
17	Chris Tanev TOR · D	TOR	D	546	292.4	-253.6	-3.6
18	Ryan Shea EDM · D	EDM	D	542	292.3	-249.7	-3.5
19	Alex Newhook MTL · C	MTL	C	534	291.3	-242.7	-3.4
20	Matvei Gridin CGY · R	CGY	R	509	276.2	-232.8	-3.0
21	Egor Chinakhov PIT · R	PIT	R	414	183.1	-230.9	-1.9
22	Victor Olofsson VGK · L	VGK	L	521	293	-228.0	-3.2
23	Ryan McDonagh TBL · D	TBL	D	511	291	-220.0	-3.0
24	Nate Schmidt UTA · D	UTA	D	512	293.3	-218.7	-3.0
25	Ilya Mikheyev TBL · R	TBL	R	506	292.1	-213.9	-3.0
26	Jaccob Slavin CAR · D	CAR	D	507	293.1	-213.9	-3.0
27	Andrei Kuzmenko PIT · L	PIT	L	501	288.9	-212.1	-2.9
28	Alberts Smits NYR · D	NYR	D	500	289.3	-210.7	-2.9
29	Jamie Drysdale PHI · D	PHI	D	389	204.7	-184.3	-1.5
30	Yan Kuznetsov CGY · D	CGY	D	474	293.2	-180.8	-2.6
31	Shea Theodore VGK · D	VGK	D	280	99.9	-180.1	+0.3
32	Sam Dickinson SJS · D	SJS	D	446	267.6	-178.4	-2.2
33	Connor Brown NJD · R	NJD	R	459	287.6	-171.4	-2.3
34	Kaapo Kakko SEA · R	SEA	R	461	290.6	-170.4	-2.4
35	Brett Pesce NJD · D	NJD	D	462	293.4	-168.6	-2.4
36	Ivar Stenberg SJS · L	SJS	L	336	171.3	-164.7	-0.6
37	Jared Spurgeon MIN · D	MIN	D	456	291.5	-164.5	-2.3
38	Sam Malinski COL · D	COL	D	371	214.1	-156.9	-1.2
39	Simon Holmstrom NYI · R	NYI	R	448	292	-156.0	-2.2
40	Aliaksei Protas WSH · L	WSH	L	321	165.7	-155.3	-0.3