Buy-Low / Sell-High
2025-26 · finishing = goals − expected goals (xGF). Ranked by the LUCK share of the surplus — the unsustainable part of a hot streak.
❓ How to read this (plain English)
Finding players whose goal totals lie about how well they're actually playing.
- G − xG
- Goals scored minus goals EXPECTED from the shots taken. Negative = getting robbed; positive = running hot.
- Luck (regresses)
- The share of that gap that's genuinely bad/good luck — it fades. This is the number that predicts a rebound.
- Skill (persists)
- The share that's just how this player finishes, year after year. Chronic under-finishers are NOT buy-lows.
- Iron
- Posts + crossbars hit (and the goal value of those shots). Pure bad luck — centimeters from goals.
- ENG
- Empty-net goals — real points, but they say nothing about shooting skill, so we remove them before judging.
- Snakebit
- The bottom line: luck deficit plus iron. Most negative = most deserving of better results = best buy.
| # | Player | Team | Pos | GP | G | xGF | SOG | G − xG | Luck (regresses) | Skill (persists) | Iron | ENG | HD finish | HD shots | Snakebit score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Mantha NJD · R | NJD | R | 81 | 33 | 17.18 | 152 | +15.8 | +7.8 | +7.0 | 1 (0 xG) | 1 | +11.1 | 65 | +7.8 |
| 2 | Morgan Geekie BOS · C | BOS | C | 81 | 39 | 22.43 | 181 | +16.6 | +7.1 | +8.4 | 2 (0.2 xG) | 1 | +5.5 | 58 | +6.9 |
| 3 | William Nylander TOR · R | TOR | R | 65 | 30 | 16.58 | 156 | +13.4 | +5.6 | +4.9 | 2 (0.2 xG) | 3 | +10.9 | 46 | +5.4 |
| 4 | Filip Forsberg NSH · L | NSH | L | 82 | 40 | 24.95 | 246 | +15.1 | +5.2 | +6.8 | 1 (0.1 xG) | 3 | +3.5 | 58 | +5.1 |
| 5 | Parker Kelly COL · C | COL | C | 82 | 21 | 11.86 | 104 | +9.1 | +5.0 | +3.1 | — | 1 | +3.7 | 37 | +5.0 |
| 6 | Nikita Kucherov TBL · R | TBL | R | 77 | 44 | 24.48 | 231 | +19.5 | +5.5 | +7.0 | 6 (0.6 xG) | 7 | +9.1 | 45 | +4.9 |
| 7 | Cutter Gauthier ANA · L | ANA | L | 76 | 41 | 26.76 | 285 | +14.2 | +4.7 | +6.6 | — | 3 | +2.7 | 52 | +4.7 |
| 8 | Sidney Crosby PIT · C | PIT | C | 68 | 29 | 18.52 | 160 | +10.5 | +4.8 | +4.7 | 2 (0.2 xG) | 1 | +3.7 | 62 | +4.6 |
| 9 | Bobby McMann SEA · C | SEA | C | 78 | 29 | 15.38 | 183 | +13.6 | +4.8 | +3.9 | 5 (0.3 xG) | 5 | +4.9 | 51 | +4.5 |
| 10 | Pavel Zacha BOS · C | BOS | C | 78 | 30 | 19.8 | 131 | +10.2 | +4.5 | +4.7 | — | 1 | +6.9 | 61 | +4.5 |
| 11 | Adrian Kempe LAK · R | LAK | R | 81 | 36 | 23.57 | 226 | +12.4 | +4.7 | +5.8 | 7 (0.3 xG) | 2 | +5.3 | 59 | +4.4 |
| 12 | Robert Thomas STL · C | STL | C | 64 | 25 | 13.83 | 102 | +11.2 | +4.7 | +3.4 | 2 (0.3 xG) | 3 | +2.5 | 43 | +4.4 |
| 13 | Brad Marchand FLA · L | FLA | L | 52 | 27 | 15.89 | 138 | +11.1 | +4.4 | +3.7 | — | 3 | — | — | +4.4 |
| 14 | Matthew Schaefer NYI · D | NYI | D | 82 | 23 | 15.11 | 222 | +7.9 | +4.4 | +3.5 | 1 (0 xG) | — | -0.6 | 18 | +4.4 |
| 15 | Logan Cooley UTA · C | UTA | C | 54 | 24 | 14.6 | 102 | +9.4 | +4.2 | +3.2 | — | 2 | — | — | +4.2 |
| 16 | Darren Raddysh TOR · D | TOR | D | 73 | 22 | 13.86 | 212 | +8.1 | +4.7 | +3.4 | 6 (0.5 xG) | — | -1.2 | 11 | +4.2 |
| 17 | Cole Caufield MTL · R | MTL | R | 81 | 51 | 36.9 | 258 | +14.1 | +4.8 | +9.3 | 6 (0.8 xG) | — | +6.4 | 79 | +4.0 |
| 18 | Martin Necas COL · C | COL | C | 78 | 38 | 24.89 | 206 | +13.1 | +4.4 | +5.7 | 3 (0.4 xG) | 3 | +1.3 | 54 | +4.0 |
| 19 | Alex Tuch WSH · R | WSH | R | 79 | 33 | 22.34 | 195 | +10.7 | +4.4 | +5.2 | 6 (0.4 xG) | 1 | +4.9 | 66 | +4.0 |
| 20 | Mark Scheifele WPG · C | WPG | C | 82 | 36 | 23.9 | 175 | +12.1 | +4.0 | +5.1 | 2 (0.1 xG) | 3 | -2.1 | 66 | +3.9 |
| 21 | Leon Draisaitl EDM · C | EDM | C | 65 | 35 | 24.41 | 186 | +10.6 | +4.2 | +5.4 | 5 (0.3 xG) | 1 | +4.5 | 53 | +3.9 |
| 22 | Jakob Chychrun WSH · D | WSH | D | 80 | 26 | 18.22 | 221 | +7.8 | +4.0 | +3.8 | 3 (0.2 xG) | — | -1.1 | 26 | +3.8 |
| 23 | Steven Stamkos NSH · C | NSH | C | 82 | 42 | 25.81 | 206 | +16.2 | +4.3 | +5.9 | 6 (0.6 xG) | 6 | +6.5 | 63 | +3.7 |
| 24 | Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · C | NYI | C | 74 | 17 | 10.33 | 81 | +6.7 | +3.7 | +2.0 | 2 (0.1 xG) | 1 | +4.5 | 38 | +3.6 |
| 25 | Wyatt Johnston DAL · C | DAL | C | 82 | 45 | 33.8 | 206 | +11.2 | +3.7 | +6.5 | 2 (0.2 xG) | 1 | +8 | 111 | +3.5 |
| 26 | Cody Glass NJD · C | NJD | C | 70 | 19 | 13.28 | 104 | +5.7 | +3.4 | +2.4 | — | — | +4.1 | 45 | +3.4 |
| 27 | Macklin Celebrini SJS · C | SJS | C | 82 | 45 | 30.68 | 287 | +14.3 | +3.6 | +5.8 | 3 (0.3 xG) | 5 | +1.3 | 59 | +3.3 |
| 28 | Matt Boldy MIN · L | MIN | L | 76 | 42 | 28.67 | 254 | +13.3 | +3.3 | +5.0 | 2 (0.2 xG) | 5 | +5.4 | 84 | +3.1 |
| 29 | Drake Batherson OTT · R | OTT | R | 79 | 33 | 24.82 | 167 | +8.2 | +3.5 | +4.6 | 5 (0.5 xG) | — | +10.2 | 70 | +3.0 |
| 30 | Nick Schmaltz UTA · C | UTA | C | 82 | 33 | 25.48 | 206 | +7.5 | +3.2 | +4.3 | 2 (0.2 xG) | — | +4.6 | 88 | +3.0 |
| 31 | Zach Werenski CBJ · D | CBJ | D | 75 | 22 | 16.36 | 260 | +5.6 | +3.0 | +2.6 | 2 (0 xG) | — | -2.4 | 17 | +3.0 |
| 32 | Dylan Guenther UTA · R | UTA | R | 79 | 40 | 30.36 | 242 | +9.6 | +3.7 | +5.9 | 11 (0.8 xG) | — | +4.3 | 59 | +2.9 |
| 33 | Vladimir Tarasenko · R | R | 75 | 23 | 15.92 | 148 | +7.1 | +3.3 | +2.8 | 4 (0.4 xG) | 1 | -1.7 | 39 | +2.9 | |
| 34 | Mitch Marner VGK · R | VGK | R | 81 | 24 | 17.42 | 165 | +6.6 | +3.4 | +3.1 | 4 (0.5 xG) | — | +3.7 | 42 | +2.9 |
| 35 | Nathan MacKinnon COL · C | COL | C | 80 | 53 | 35.96 | 350 | +17.0 | +3.1 | +5.9 | 4 (0.3 xG) | 8 | +2.6 | 83 | +2.8 |
| 36 | Mika Zibanejad NYR · C | NYR | C | 81 | 34 | 25.05 | 215 | +8.9 | +3.4 | +4.5 | 7 (0.6 xG) | 1 | +3.5 | 53 | +2.8 |
| 37 | Alexander Wennberg SJS · C | SJS | C | 80 | 18 | 12.2 | 93 | +5.8 | +2.9 | +1.9 | 1 (0.1 xG) | 1 | +2.5 | 53 | +2.8 |
| 38 | Nikolaj Ehlers CAR · L | CAR | L | 82 | 26 | 18.72 | 207 | +7.3 | +3.2 | +3.1 | 4 (0.5 xG) | 1 | +2.7 | 32 | +2.7 |
| 39 | Brock Nelson COL · C | COL | C | 81 | 33 | 24.53 | 186 | +8.5 | +2.8 | +3.6 | 2 (0.2 xG) | 2 | +0.4 | 74 | +2.6 |
| 40 | Egor Chinakhov PIT · R | PIT | R | 72 | 21 | 16 | 140 | +5.0 | +2.7 | +2.3 | 2 (0.1 xG) | — | +0.1 | 35 | +2.6 |