Buy-Low / Sell-High
2025-26 · finishing = goals − expected goals (xGF). Ranked by SNAKEBIT: the luck share of the deficit (chronic under-finishers discounted) PLUS goals lost to posts/crossbars. Empty-netters removed before the split.
❓ How to read this (plain English)
Finding players whose goal totals lie about how well they're actually playing.
- G − xG
- Goals scored minus goals EXPECTED from the shots taken. Negative = getting robbed; positive = running hot.
- Luck (regresses)
- The share of that gap that's genuinely bad/good luck — it fades. This is the number that predicts a rebound.
- Skill (persists)
- The share that's just how this player finishes, year after year. Chronic under-finishers are NOT buy-lows.
- Iron
- Posts + crossbars hit (and the goal value of those shots). Pure bad luck — centimeters from goals.
- ENG
- Empty-net goals — real points, but they say nothing about shooting skill, so we remove them before judging.
- Snakebit
- The bottom line: luck deficit plus iron. Most negative = most deserving of better results = best buy.
| # | Player | Team | Pos | GP | G | xGF | SOG | G − xG | Luck (regresses) | Skill (persists) | Iron | ENG | HD finish | HD shots | Snakebit score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cole Sillinger CBJ · C | CBJ | C | 81 | 8 | 14.5 | 136 | -6.5 | -5.4 | -4.1 | 3 (0.2 xG) | 3 | -3.7 | 34 | -5.6 |
| 2 | Andrew Copp DET · C | DET | C | 79 | 9 | 15.5 | 115 | -6.5 | -5.2 | -4.3 | — | 3 | -5.9 | 60 | -5.2 |
| 3 | Jonathan Drouin · L | L | 64 | 4 | 11.7 | 86 | -7.7 | -4.8 | -2.9 | 3 (0.2 xG) | — | -3.7 | 29 | -5.0 | |
| 4 | Ross Colton NSH · C | NSH | C | 73 | 9 | 15.82 | 153 | -6.8 | -4.8 | -4.0 | 3 (0.2 xG) | 2 | -5.5 | 43 | -5.0 |
| 5 | Cole Perfetti WPG · C | WPG | C | 68 | 12 | 18.04 | 136 | -6.0 | -3.6 | -3.4 | 7 (0.8 xG) | 1 | -1.5 | 48 | -4.4 |
| 6 | Jack McBain UTA · C | UTA | C | 75 | 9 | 15.8 | 106 | -6.8 | -4.3 | -3.5 | — | 1 | -5.3 | 62 | -4.3 |
| 7 | Nazem Kadri COL · C | COL | C | 77 | 16 | 24.53 | 213 | -8.5 | -3.7 | -4.8 | 3 (0.3 xG) | — | -5.8 | 70 | -4.0 |
| 8 | Brendan Gallagher VAN · R | VAN | R | 77 | 7 | 13.79 | 121 | -6.8 | -3.9 | -2.9 | 2 (0.1 xG) | — | -4.3 | 47 | -4.0 |
| 9 | Kent Johnson CBJ · C | CBJ | C | 76 | 7 | 12.23 | 114 | -5.2 | -3.8 | -2.4 | 2 (0.2 xG) | 1 | -0.7 | 34 | -4.0 |
| 10 | Barrett Hayton UTA · C | UTA | C | 67 | 10 | 13.91 | 119 | -3.9 | -4.0 | -2.9 | — | 3 | -7.5 | 58 | -4.0 |
| 11 | Mackie Samoskevich SEA · R | SEA | R | 77 | 12 | 19.91 | 161 | -7.9 | -3.9 | -4.0 | — | — | — | — | -3.9 |
| 12 | Yakov Trenin MIN · C | MIN | C | 82 | 6 | 12.41 | 98 | -6.4 | -3.9 | -2.5 | — | — | -5.3 | 47 | -3.9 |
| 13 | Marco Kasper DET · C | DET | C | 81 | 9 | 14.77 | 131 | -5.8 | -3.8 | -3.0 | 2 (0 xG) | 1 | -4.3 | 52 | -3.8 |
| 14 | Phillip Danault MTL · C | MTL | C | 75 | 6 | 10.55 | 91 | -4.5 | -3.6 | -2.0 | 2 (0.2 xG) | 1 | -3.7 | 34 | -3.8 |
| 15 | Tomas Hertl VGK · C | VGK | C | 82 | 24 | 30.86 | 202 | -6.9 | -3.4 | -5.5 | 2 (0.2 xG) | 2 | -5.4 | 113 | -3.6 |
| 16 | Timo Meier NJD · R | NJD | R | 77 | 24 | 30.8 | 269 | -6.8 | -3.4 | -5.4 | 4 (0.2 xG) | 2 | -4 | 91 | -3.6 |
| 17 | Quinn Hughes MIN · D | MIN | D | 74 | 7 | 12.91 | 187 | -5.9 | -3.5 | -2.4 | 2 (0.1 xG) | — | 0 | 10 | -3.6 |
| 18 | Dawson Mercer NJD · C | NJD | C | 82 | 20 | 20.66 | 158 | -0.7 | -3.2 | -3.5 | 3 (0.4 xG) | 6 | -4.6 | 69 | -3.6 |
| 19 | Anders Lee UTA · L | UTA | L | 82 | 19 | 27.08 | 199 | -8.1 | -3.3 | -4.7 | 2 (0.2 xG) | — | -6.2 | 107 | -3.5 |
| 20 | Adam Lowry WPG · C | WPG | C | 70 | 5 | 10.13 | 71 | -5.1 | -3.3 | -1.8 | 1 (0.1 xG) | — | -0.9 | 30 | -3.4 |
| 21 | William Eklund OTT · L | OTT | L | 78 | 15 | 21.71 | 176 | -6.7 | -3.1 | -3.6 | 3 (0.2 xG) | — | -2.6 | 74 | -3.3 |
| 22 | Oliver Bjorkstrand NYR · R | NYR | R | 80 | 12 | 17.84 | 130 | -5.8 | -3.0 | -2.8 | 4 (0.3 xG) | — | +0.1 | 35 | -3.3 |
| 23 | Luke Evangelista NSH · R | NSH | R | 81 | 12 | 16.68 | 176 | -4.7 | -3.0 | -2.7 | 2 (0.2 xG) | 1 | -2.7 | 54 | -3.2 |
| 24 | Emmitt Finnie DET · C | DET | C | 82 | 13 | 17.43 | 120 | -4.4 | -2.8 | -2.6 | 4 (0.4 xG) | 1 | -5.8 | 70 | -3.2 |
| 25 | Jake DeBrusk VAN · L | VAN | L | 81 | 23 | 29.74 | 219 | -6.7 | -2.6 | -4.1 | 5 (0.5 xG) | — | -1.9 | 121 | -3.1 |
| 26 | Sean Monahan CBJ · C | CBJ | C | 78 | 13 | 16.77 | 131 | -3.8 | -3.1 | -2.7 | 1 (0 xG) | 2 | -3.1 | 56 | -3.1 |
| 27 | Brady Tkachuk FLA · L | FLA | L | 60 | 22 | 24.96 | 221 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -4.0 | — | 4 | -6.6 | 89 | -3.0 |
| 28 | Berkly Catton SEA · C | SEA | C | 66 | 7 | 11.26 | 78 | -4.3 | -2.7 | -1.6 | 2 (0.2 xG) | — | -1.1 | 31 | -2.9 |
| 29 | Christian Dvorak PHI · C | PHI | C | 80 | 18 | 22.24 | 151 | -4.2 | -2.9 | -3.4 | — | 2 | -3.2 | 77 | -2.9 |
| 30 | Gabriel Landeskog COL · L | COL | L | 60 | 14 | 17.7 | 132 | -3.7 | -2.4 | -2.3 | 2 (0.5 xG) | 1 | +0.1 | 55 | -2.9 |
| 31 | Braeden Bowman VGK · R | VGK | R | 54 | 8 | 12.49 | 75 | -4.5 | -2.7 | -1.8 | 2 (0.1 xG) | — | — | — | -2.8 |
| 32 | Tanner Jeannot BOS · L | BOS | L | 77 | 6 | 10.33 | 78 | -4.3 | -2.8 | -1.5 | — | — | -2.3 | 32 | -2.8 |
| 33 | Eeli Tolvanen · R | R | 78 | 12 | 14.84 | 141 | -2.8 | -2.7 | -2.1 | 2 (0.1 xG) | 2 | -2.1 | 26 | -2.8 | |
| 34 | Claude Giroux OTT · R | OTT | R | 82 | 14 | 14.55 | 138 | -0.6 | -2.6 | -2.0 | 1 (0.2 xG) | 4 | -0.9 | 35 | -2.8 |
| 35 | Yanni Gourde TBL · C | TBL | C | 82 | 9 | 13.26 | 114 | -4.3 | -2.5 | -1.8 | 1 (0.2 xG) | — | -2.1 | 36 | -2.7 |
| 36 | Jordan Martinook CAR · L | CAR | L | 77 | 12 | 13.17 | 109 | -1.2 | -2.5 | -1.7 | 2 (0.2 xG) | 3 | -1.7 | 29 | -2.7 |
| 37 | Jonathan Marchessault NSH · C | NSH | C | 62 | 12 | 15.29 | 132 | -3.3 | -2.4 | -1.9 | 3 (0.2 xG) | 1 | -1.5 | 53 | -2.6 |
| 38 | Zach Benson BUF · L | BUF | L | 65 | 13 | 14.51 | 116 | -1.5 | -2.6 | -2.0 | 1 (0 xG) | 3 | -2.3 | 62 | -2.6 |
| 39 | Matt Coronato CGY · R | CGY | R | 80 | 18 | 21.98 | 197 | -4.0 | -2.3 | -2.7 | 3 (0.2 xG) | 1 | -4.1 | 56 | -2.5 |
| 40 | Roope Hintz DAL · C | DAL | C | 53 | 15 | 17.19 | 126 | -2.2 | -2.2 | -2.0 | 2 (0.3 xG) | 2 | — | — | -2.5 |