Mathew Barzal
CProbable for start of season2026-27 projection
71
GP
0.25
G
0.67
A
0.92
Pts
0.26
PPP
2.30
SOG
0.44
Hits
0.63
Blk
2026-27 outlook · floor / expected / ceiling
Points
Floor 34Expected 66Ceiling 97
Goals
Floor 9Expected 18Ceiling 27
Assists
Floor 25Expected 48Ceiling 71
What moves the range:
- Shooting %: expected 10.1% — a hot/cold season swings goals by ±4.9 (pure luck).
- Ice time / role: ±7% (line/PP promotion vs demotion) — line & power-play promotion is the biggest upside lever.
- Games played: floor assumes 57 (injury), ceiling 77 (full health) vs 71 expected.
- Linemates: assist swing of ±13.4 tracks how well his linemates finish his setups.
NHL seasons
| Season | GP | G | A | P | SOG | PPP | PIM | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 19 | 53 | 72 | 184 | 20 | 61 | 10 |
| 2024-25 | 30 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 78 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 2023-24 | 80 | 23 | 57 | 80 | 240 | 25 | 34 | -4 |
| 2022-23 | 58 | 14 | 37 | 51 | 139 | 19 | 22 | 5 |
| 2021-22 | 73 | 15 | 44 | 59 | 161 | 18 | -15 | |
| 2020-21 | 55 | 17 | 28 | 45 | 134 | 48 | 15 | |
| 2019-20 | 68 | 19 | 41 | 60 | 171 | 44 | 5 | |
| 2018-19 | 82 | 18 | 44 | 62 | 179 | 46 | -5 | |
| 2017-18 | 82 | 22 | 63 | 85 | 170 | 30 | 1 | |
| 2016-17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -2 |