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2026-27 season preview

Seattle Kraken

39-35-1088 pts26th of 32
Goals for
2.78
28th in the league
Goals against
3.07
23rd in the league
Power play
19.5%
19th in the league

Kodo projects the Seattle Kraken for 39-35-10 (88 pts). In a points-only league, the fantasy value runs through Jared McCann and Matty Beniers on PP1. 1 core skater projects to rise and 2 to slip. Joey Daccord is the projected starter.

Your categories · using the preset above
Breakout watch
projects 43.0 pts on a rising role (L1·PP2)
Regression watch
finishing/on-ice luck ran hot — expect some pullback off last year's line
Buy-low
underlying shot/chance rates outran the results — a discount vs name value
The crease
Joey Daccord
Joey Daccord projects the crease (~43 starts), but Philipp Grubauer (~39) makes it more timeshare than lock
Contents · 12 sections

Latest

lines, injuries and roster moves 1 / 12 ›
InjuryJacob Melanson — Out — Upper Body · CBS2026-10-03
InjuryMackie Samoskevich — Out — Upper Body · CBS2026-10-03
ReportedMackie Samoskevich — As we suspected, Mackie Samoskevich will at least *start* the game on the fourth line, with The Kids™️ staying together. Melanson out with an upper-body injury. Curtis Douglas and Josh Mahura scratched, Ben Meyers and Cale Fleury in. #SeaKraken https://t.co/4JIbESdzi4 · @sound_hockey ↗2026-10-03
ReportedJacob Melanson — Also, Lane Lambert shared that Jacob Melanson is on injured reserve with an upper-body injury. Said he wouldn’t expect to see him for the next three games, but he wasn’t too sure of the timeline. #SeaKraken https://t.co/JeFJorJWgS · @sound_hockey ↗2026-10-03
ReportedCurtis Douglas — Here's how the #SeaKraken will line up against the #Flames in Game 1 of the season. Curtis Douglas making his SEA debut. Fleury, Ottavainen, and Meyers scratched. Samoskevich injured. https://t.co/ZwfVXPsE9Q · @sound_hockey ↗2026-10-02
Each item names its source. Kodo's own projected line changes are not reported here.

Where this team sits

last season vs projection‹ 2 / 12 ›
25-2626-27Change
Goals for2.7328th2.7830th+0.05▼2
Goals against3.1323rd3.0721st-0.06▲2
Power play19.519th20.5219th=+1.02~
Penalty kill72.231st75.8532nd+3.65▼1
Faceoffs47.727th48.3629th+0.66▼2
Points percentage0.48227th0.52426th+0.042▲1
How these projections are made
Both bars share one scale per row — the wider of the two league ranges — so a bar that moves is a number that moved. The grey tick is that column's league average, and the arrow is the change in league rank. Goals-against and expected-goals-against rank ascending, so low is good and green always means improved.
Goals for, goals against and points percentage come from the roster: summed player projections over the real 26-27 schedule, last season's expected goals against regressed toward the league and adjusted for projected goaltending, and a game-by-game simulation of that schedule.
The special teams are projected from how much each number actually carries over year to year, measured across 298 team-season pairs going back to 2010-11. The power play uses one prior season shrunk 0.36; the penalty kill uses three, weighted .5/.3/.2 and shrunk 0.38. Special teams barely persist, so a league-worst penalty kill is mostly bad luck and comes most of the way back, while the faceoff dot is a repeatable team skill. How far a club moves depends on how far from the mean it started: Vancouver sits near league average on both the power play and the faceoff dot and barely shifts, while Edmonton's 30.6% power play comes back to the middle and this penalty kill, worst in the league, is the biggest riser of all 32.
The penalty kill averages three seasons because one measures it so badly. Split a single season's spread into ability and sampling noise — a kill rate is a binomial over about 250 opportunities, so the noise is known rather than guessed — and only 33% of the gap between clubs is real. Divide the year-over-year correlation by that and the ability underneath comes out near 1.0: penalty killing is almost perfectly persistent and merely hard to see in one season. The cure for a noisy measurement is more of it, and three seasons beat one by 4.3% out of sample. Because averaging reorders clubs, that row's rank is a real forecast; the rows marked = are single-season regressions, which compress the values but keep them in order, so their rank is last season's by construction and only the value is a prediction.
A roster-aware faceoff model was built and rejected on the evidence. Draw counts are not stored, but they can be recovered exactly from the per-game percentages, and with real draws a club's number reconstructs from its own centres. It still does not predict better: given a club's first half to learn from and even handed the second half's draw distribution, it scored 2.24 against the plain regression's 2.26 across 32 clubs, and the best blend of the two puts almost no weight on it. A team's faceoff percentage already carries who takes its draws. Expected goals has no team projection at all, so that row shows last season alone.

How last season went

in quarters — where the season was won and lost‹ 3 / 12 ›
They faded from where they started — -26 points of win percentage between the first quarter and the last.
Oct–Nov10-09 – 11-20
50%10-10
for2.70
against2.80
Nov–Jan11-22 – 01-06
48%10-11
for2.90
against3.05
Jan–Mar01-08 – 03-04
45%9-11
for2.90
against2.95
Mar–Apr03-07 – 04-16
24%5-16
for2.52
against4.00

Schedule shape

games per week and per month, light nights, back-to-backs‹ 4 / 12 ›
Light nights
27.4%17th
23 of 84 games
Four-game weeks
111st
8 weeks of two or fewer
Back-to-backs
1324th
roughly one backup start each
Playoff-week games
1019th
over 3 weeks · 1 back-to-back
Games per week
2026-09-28on light nights2027-04-05
Games by month
Oct*
14
Nov
10
Dec
14
Jan
16
Feb
9
Mar
16
Apr*
5
* part of a month — the season opens and closes mid-month.

Projected lineup

lines, pairs and both special teams, with what each man projects for‹ 5 / 12 ›
Lineup notes
This is the lineup the club can ice on opening night, not its best-case group. A player expected to miss more than the opening month is left out and his slot goes to whoever takes it — he keeps his projection below, he is out of the lineup, not out of the season.
Mackie Samoskevich — Upper Body: IR. Expected to be out until at least Oct 9 · still projected 76 games
Jake O'Brien — Lower Body: IR. Expected to be out until at least Oct 6 · still projected 31 games
Jacob Melanson — Upper Body: IR. Expected to be out until at least Oct 17 · still projected 25 games
Projected ice time totals 298.1 of the 300 skater-minutes a game has. Power play 3.16′ on the first unit, 1.79′ on the second; the kill 2.35′, 1.67′ and 1′ across three units — all measured.Change this lineup →

Forward lines

L1
LW
Jared McCann
56 pts · 18.0′
24G · 32A · 170SOG · 52HIT · 38BLK
C
Matty Beniers
54 pts · 19.0′
23G · 31A · 154SOG · 39HIT · 68BLK
RW
Kaapo Kakko
43 pts · 16.6′
13G · 30A · 100SOG · 43HIT · 20BLK
L2
LW
Bobby McMann
36 pts · 16.2′
20G · 16A · 166SOG · 154HIT · 27BLK
C
Chandler Stephenson
48 pts · 18.9′
13G · 35A · 86SOG · 28HIT · 53BLK
RW
Jordan Eberle
45 pts · 16.6′
20G · 24A · 126SOG · 39HIT · 34BLK
L3
LW
Berkly Catton
27 pts · 14.0′
13G · 14A · 106SOG · 14HIT · 35BLK
C
Shane Wright
36 pts · 14.0′
16G · 20A · 106SOG · 54HIT · 59BLK
RW
Ryan Winterton
24 pts · 13.9′
8G · 16A · 107SOG · 83HIT · 36BLK
L4
LW
Ben Meyers
11 pts · 12.4′
5G · 5A · 61SOG · 70HIT · 17BLK
C
Frederick Gaudreau
24 pts · 13.1′
9G · 16A · 83SOG · 38HIT · 54BLK
RW
Curtis Douglas
1 pts · 10.7′
1G · 1A · 16SOG · 32HIT · 8BLK

Defence pairs

D1
LD
Vince Dunn
43 pts · 22.6′
10G · 33A · 157SOG · 33HIT · 85BLK
RD
Adam Larsson
20 pts · 20.8′
5G · 15A · 99SOG · 112HIT · 150BLK
D2
LD
Ryker Evans
14 pts · 18.5′
4G · 11A · 57SOG · 76HIT · 90BLK
RD
Brandon Montour
38 pts · 19.6′
13G · 25A · 198SOG · 88HIT · 91BLK
D3
LD
Ryan Lindgren
9 pts · 17.2′
2G · 7A · 55SOG · 64HIT · 123BLK
RD
Josh Mahura
4 pts · 16.5′
1G · 3A · 43SOG · 69HIT · 64BLK

Special teams

Scratches & depth

* — unsigned restricted free agent. His club holds his rights, so he is projected and dressed here, but he is not yet under contract.

Roster movement & minutes

who changed, and the minutes freed‹ 6 / 12 ›
Jaden Schwartz→ COL50 played · 30 missed
0.52 points a game and 16.1 minutes walked out of the lineup — about 16 points over a season.
Stepped up without him
playerwithw/outswing
McMann0.381.38+1.00
Kakko0.450.83+0.38
Gaudreau0.250.50+0.25
Tolvanen0.390.63+0.24
Stephenson0.560.73+0.17
Faded without him
playerwithw/outswing
Marchment0.500.29-0.21
McCann0.810.70-0.11
Evans0.310.21-0.10
Wright0.400.30-0.10
Larsson0.340.27-0.07
Points per game with him in the lineup against the games he missed. Not a controlled experiment — absences cluster around injuries, so some of these games were missing other players too. Every absence for this club →
In Samoskevich, McMann, Douglas, Ottavainen, Bernier, Saarinen, Miettinen, Evers
Callup Ottavainen, O'Brien
Out Marchment→SJS, Tolvanen, Schwartz, Kartye→NYR, Oleksiak, Nyman→UFA, Molgaard→UFA, Miettinen
McCann16.4→17.9 +1.5
Wright13.8→15.1 +1.3
Evans17.8→18.8 +1
Catton12.9→13.9 +1
Kakko14.3→15.2 +0.9
Eberle18.5→17.8 -0.7
Douglas6.8→6 -0.8
McMann15.9→15.1 -0.8
Biggest projected minute changes either way — a club's ice time is a fixed budget, so the departures above are what free it up. Full board →

Camp battles

contested roles, priced in points‹ 7 / 12 ›
Top power-play unit — forward slot7.3 pts at stake
holds it
Jordan Eberle
45 proj pts · 17.8′ · 2.7′ PP
vs
pushing
Kaapo Kakko
43 proj pts · 15.2′ · 1.5′ PP
Jordan Eberlemodel favours the incumbentKaapo Kakko
1.40 more min/game on PP1 (measured PP1 vs PP2 minutes), at the challenger's own scoring rate over a full season. Power-play gaps come from measured PP minutes last season; even-strength gaps from the role model that drives every projection on this page.
Top power-play unit — quarterback6.4 pts at stake
holds it
Vince Dunn
43 proj pts · 22.1′ · 2.8′ PP
vs
pushing
Brandon Montour
38 proj pts · 22.8′ · 2.2′ PP
Vince Dunnmodel favours the incumbentBrandon Montour

Power play

19.5% last season · who it runs through, and what is left of it‹ 8 / 12 ›
Conversion
19.5%
on the man advantage
PP goals
51
550 shots
Expected goals
53.4
-2.4 vs actual
Shooting
9.3%
of PP shots go in
What left the power play
Marchment carried 5% of the power-play points on 3% of its minutes — a focal score of 1.6. He is not on this roster.
Tolvanen carried 10% of the power-play points on 8% of its minutes — a focal score of 1.23. He is not on this roster.
Who it runs through · last season
PlayerPP/gmSharePPGPPAPPP/60ixGIPPFocal
Dunn2.79′59%219215.573.274%1.22
McCann2.82′60%76135.325.165%1.16
Kakko1.54′33%2684.81.358%1.04
Stephenson2.67′57%610164.493.260%0.98
Eberle2.67′57%412164.57.862%0.98
Montour2.19′46%2683.432.262%0.74
Beniers2.64′56%65113.058.152%0.67
Wright1.75′37%2462.792.450%0.61
Catton0.96′20%1121.891.2—0.42
What IPP, focal and ixG mean
IPP is the share of the power-play goals he was on the ice for that he got a point on. It is the direct form of “the play runs through him”: two men can take the same unit minutes while one touches the puck on every goal and the other watches from the far circle. League average on the power play is 59%. It is computed from the on-ice record of every goal, corrected for the ~18% of goals with no on-ice row and shrunk toward the positional mean for thin samples, so it cannot exceed 1.
Focal is the older, cruder version — his share of the team's power-play points over his share of its minutes. It is team-relative, so it moves when a teammate is injured; IPP does not. ixG is the expected goals from his own shots on the man advantage. Minutes are measured, not modelled.
Projected PP1Dunn19 PPP (21 last yr)Beniers13 PPP (11 last yr)Stephenson17 PPP (16 last yr)Eberle12 PPP (16 last yr)McCann18 PPP (13 last yr)
Projected PP2Montour11 PPP (8 last yr)Wright9 PPP (6 last yr)Kakko8 PPP (8 last yr)Catton2 PPP (2 last yr)McMann6 PPP (6 last yr)Samoskevich10 PPP (10 last yr)

Hits, blocks and the rest

what a banger league is won with‹ 9 / 12 ›
Hits
142727th
projected, this roster · of 32
Blocks
113919th
projected, this roster · of 32
Shots
211928th
projected, this roster · of 32
Penalty minutes
61423rd
projected, this roster · of 32
Faceoff wins
242313th
projected, this roster · of 32
H+B
256627th
projected, this roster · of 32
S+H+B
468531st
projected, this roster · of 32
Who supplies them
PlayerGPHits/60Blks/60PKPIMFOW+/-H+BS+H+B
Larsson RD1801123.761505.572.639—+6262361
Lindgren LD37864▲2.031235.092.655—+1187242
Montour RD2·PP277883.11913.240.658—-17179377
McMann L2·PP2771547.98271.310.3396+1181347
Evans LD27376▲2.41903.771.140—0165222
Samoskevich761357.31341.770.1274-3169325
Dunn LD1·PP17733▲0.92852.940.252—-12117275
Mahura RD35569▲4.32645.981.329—+7133176
Melanson25121▼33.33102.3—181-1131153
Winterton L373835.44362.431.0200-2119226
Wright L3·PP277543593.470.115267+3112219
Beniers L1·PP18339▲1.18682.620.822537-4107261
McCann L1·PP17652▲2.81381.760.31858-389259
Gaudreau L475381.92542.852.012373-292175
Meyers L456706.4171.361.718191-686147
Stephenson L2·PP18128▲0.77532.161.919755-1581167
Eberle L2·PP16739▼2.23341.740.32213+173198
Kakko L1·PP27643▲1.94200.770.12327+863163
Fleury21448315.440.76—+17696
Catton L3·PP27414▲0.56352.11—3579-349154
Douglas L42232▼13.1382.46—39303956
O'Brien3140—15——1111005587
What actually moves these numbers
Penalty-kill time is the strongest driver of blocks we can measure. Across 1,504 consecutive season pairs, a skater who gains a minute of shorthanded time a game adds a median 9.5 blocks over 84 games — a defenceman 16 — and the effect runs monotonically the other way too: lose a minute and it is −15.6, or −25.9 for a defenceman. The PK column is here for that reason.
But it is mostly the minutes, not the man. Shorthanded time correlates +0.52 with blocks per 60 across players and only +0.14 within the same player year to year, which says coaches pick shot-blockers for the kill more than the kill turns anyone into one. A player promoted onto PK1 gains blocks because he is on the ice for more shots, not because he changed — so price the ice time, not a breakout.
Hits run opposite to ice time. Total minutes correlate −0.57 with hits per 60, and −0.60 among forwards: the fourth line hits, the first line does not. So a rate beats a total here more than in any other category, which is what the /60 columns are for — a checker on eleven minutes at 12 hits per 60 is worth more than a first-liner at 5 on nineteen, and their season totals can look identical.
Power-play time predicts the absence of all of it — −0.43 with hits per 60, −0.47 with blocks, −0.26 with penalty minutes. The men who run a power play are not the men who supply a banger roster, which is why the two sections of this page rarely name anybody twice.
Faceoff wins are a volume category. They track draws taken far more than win rate, so the man to want is the one taking the most — normally the first-line centre and whoever takes defensive-zone draws on the kill.
Measured on 2022-23 through 2025-26, skaters with 40+ games and 200+ minutes at both ends of each pair.

Contracts and the cap

what the roster costs, and who reaches the market‹ 10 / 12 ›
$85.3Mcommitted · 23 of 24 on file
8reach the market after this season

Pending free agents · this summer

Vince DunnDUFA$7.35M43 pts
Philipp GrubauerGUFA$5.90M
Jared McCannLUFA$5.00M56 pts
Ryker EvansDRFA$2.05M14 pts
Josh MahuraDUFA$0.91M4 pts
Cale FleuryDUFA$0.89M1 pts
Shane WrightCRFA$0.89M36 pts
Jacob MelansonRRFA—4 pts

Free the summer after

Jordan EberleR$5.50M45 pts
Kaapo KakkoR$4.53M43 pts
Frederick GaudreauC$2.10M24 pts
Curtis DouglasC$1.25M1 pts
Ryan WintertonC$1.13M24 pts
Ben MeyersC$1.00M11 pts
Berkly CattonC$0.95M27 pts

Biggest cap hits

Vince DunnD$7.35Mfinal yr · M-NTC
Brandon MontourD$7.14M4y left · NTC
Matty BeniersC$7.14M4y left
Chandler StephensonC$6.25M4y left · NMC
Philipp GrubauerG$5.90Mfinal yr · M-NTC
Bobby McMannL$5.75M5y left · NTC
Jordan EberleR$5.50M1y left · NTC
Adam LarssonD$5.25M2y left · NTC

Cap hits from CapWages for the 23 men on file. A dash is a figure we do not have, usually a restricted free agent whose entry-level deal has lapsed, and those are left out of the committed total rather than counted as nothing.

The crease

GSAx last season, projected next‹ 11 / 12 ›
GSAx view
Daccord
46 NHL starts last season
GSAx / start
-0.079
lg -0.040546th pctile
Shot quality faced
0.1013
lg 0.10424th hardest
1.60-0.713569
10-start rolling GSAx · appearance 1-69 · shared scale
2026-27 projection
43 GS21 W (12–27)0.893 SV%3.15 GAA
2025-26 actual · NHL
46 GS20 W0.897 SV%3.03 GAA
Grubauer
28 NHL starts last season
GSAx / start
0.301
lg -0.040579th pctile
Shot quality faced
0.101
lg 0.10419th hardest
1.60-0.713570
10-start rolling GSAx · appearance 1-70 · shared scale
2026-27 projection
39 GS18 W (10–23)0.893 SV%3.21 GAA
2025-26 actual · NHL
28 GS13 W0.909 SV%2.65 GAA
Murraygone
4 NHL starts last season
GSAx / start
—
Shot quality faced
0.0971
lg 0.1044th hardest
1.60-0.71816
10-start rolling GSAx · appearance 1-16 · shared scale
2026-27 projection
— GS— W— SV%— GAA
2025-26 actual · NHL
4 GS0 W0.922 SV%2.21 GAA
Ostmangone
1 NHL start last season
GSAx / start
—
Shot quality faced
0.0843
lg 0.1040th hardest
1.60-0.7124
10-start rolling GSAx · appearance 1-4 · shared scale
2026-27 projection
— GS— W— SV%— GAA
2025-26 actual · NHL
1 GS0 W0.943 SV%2.10 GAA
Kokkogone
3 NHL starts last season
GSAx / start
—
Shot quality faced
0.1021
lg 0.10433rd hardest
1.60-0.7135
10-start rolling GSAx · appearance 1-5 · shared scale
2026-27 projection
— GS— W— SV%— GAA
2025-26 actual · NHL
3 GS1 W0.890 SV%3.04 GAA
GSAx is goals saved above expected — what the shots he faced were worth, minus what he actually allowed. Shown per start, because a backup cannot out-accumulate a starter but can out-perform him on a per-night basis. Shot quality faced is expected goals per shot: higher means he was hung out to dry more often, and the percentile is where that workload ranks among goalies with 15+ starts. Rolling form is a 10-start moving average — is he playing well lately; running total is the season's accumulated damage. Per-game GSAx is too noisy to read either from directly.

Projections — Every Skater

the reference table · Overall is value as a z-score against the league, so +1.00 is a standard deviation above average‹ 12 / 12
Forwards · 15
PlayerRoleAgeOverallADPGPGAP / if fitPPPSHPSOGHITBLKPIM+/-FOWH+BS+H+BTrajectorySignals
Jared McCannL1·PP130+0.8217476243255.6181170523818-35889259ice time ↑PP1
Matty BeniersL1·PP124+0.77248.483233154.3130154396822-4537107261PP1
Chandler StephensonL2·PP132+0.50289.881133547.817286285319-1575581167PP1
Jordan EberleL2·PP136+0.3725367202444.6/54120126393422+11373198sell-highPP1
Kaapo KakkoL1·PP225+0.30292.87613304380100432023+82763163ascendingsell-high
Mackie Samoskevich24+0.12267.376182038.51001561353427-34169325bounce-back
Shane WrightL3·PP222+0.02292.877162036.190106545915+3267112219declining
Bobby McMannL2·PP230-0.01208.777201635.5601661542739+16181347
Berkly CattonL3·PP220-0.34292.574131427.320106143535-37949154—
Frederick GaudreauL433-0.46292.57591624.43083385412-237392175
Ryan WintertonL323-0.47292.67381624.300107833620-20119226—
Jake O'Brien19-0.93—314913/33203240151101105587—
Ben MeyersL428-1.03—565510.60061701718-619186147bounce-back
Jacob Melanson*23-1.30291.725224.1/1300221211018-11131153—
Curtis DouglasL426-1.41291.722111.4001632839033956—

Shading is that man's percentile among all projected forwards in the league, not among these 15. top 10% top 20 top 30 bottom 20. H+B and S+H+B take the weaker leg, because good at both is a floor rather than an average. P, SHP, PIM, +/- and FOW are unshaded — the percentile block does not carry them.

Defence · 8
PlayerRoleAgeOverallADPGPGAP / if fitPPPSHPSOGHITBLKPIM+/-FOWH+BS+H+BTrajectorySignals
Vince DunnLD1·PP130+0.29143.277103342.6190157338552-120117275PP1
Brandon MontourRD2·PP232+0.0814977132537.6110198889158-170179377
Adam LarssonRD134-0.66254.48051519.7009911215039+60262361
Ryker EvansLD225-0.88292.67341114.3215776904000165222
Ryan LindgrenLD328-1.11292.678278.601556412355+10187242declining
Josh MahuraRD328-1.31292.655133.80043696429+70133176
Cale Fleury28-1.41292.421011.3002044316+107696
Ville Ottavainen24-1.46—0000/60000000011—

Shading is that man's percentile among all projected defencemen in the league, not among these 8. top 10% top 20 top 30 bottom 20. H+B and S+H+B take the weaker leg, because good at both is a floor rather than an average. P, SHP, PIM, +/- and FOW are unshaded — the percentile block does not carry them.

Goalies · 5
GoalieGSWLOTLSV%GAASVSAGASHOGSAxGSAx/GS
Joey Daccord43211750.8933.15110312351321.9-3.6-0.079
Philipp Grubauer39181750.8933.21102211441220.3+8.40.301
Matt Murray——————————+1.9—
Victor Ostman——————————+0.9—
Nikke Kokko——————————-0.6—

Projected record and projected ice time are model estimates; ranks, lines, projections and trend signals trace to real data.

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