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2026-27 season preview

Vancouver Canucks

30-44-1070 pts32nd of 32
Goals for
2.47
30th in the league
Goals against
3.53
32nd in the league
Power play
21.8%
14th in the league

Kodo projects the Vancouver Canucks for 30-44-10 (70 pts). The fantasy engine runs through Elias Pettersson and Jake DeBrusk. 2 core skaters project to rise and 5 to slip. Kevin Lankinen is the projected starter.

Your categories · using the preset above
Breakout watch
projects 52.1 pts on a rising role (L1·PP1)
Buy-low
underlying shot/chance rates outran the results — a discount vs name value
The crease
Kevin Lankinen
Kevin Lankinen projects the crease (~45 starts), but Leevi Meriläinen (~36) makes it more timeshare than lock
Contents · 12 sections

Latest

lines, injuries and roster moves 1 / 12 ›
ReportedMarco Rossi — DeBrusk (flu) out tonight against Flames, Raty makes season debut, Merilainen may get net. Projected lines, pairings: Rossi-Pettersson-Karlsson Ohgren-Cotter-Boeser O'Connor-Raty-Gallagher Bains-Sasson-Lekkerimaki Buium-Hronek Oleksiak-Willander Pettersson-Schenn #Canucks · @benkuzma ↗2026-10-03
ReportedCaleb Malhotra — 17 skaters on the ice for an optional #Canucks morning skate, with just a small group of veteran forwards taking the option. Meriläinen is in the net usually occupied by the Vancouver starter, although I’d note that I’m not 100% certain if that’s an indicator for Malhotra yet. https://t.co/1ExX5mvoj1 · @ThomasDrance ↗2026-10-03
ReportedJake DeBrusk — “Obviously I’d be super disappointed,” said Jake DeBrusk, who skated as an extra at #Canucks practice Friday, about possibly being a healthy scratch this weekend. Of course, it’s not quite that simple. 3 thoughts on Malhotra’s lineup tweaks. Unlocked: https://t.co/dTcGyluaTz · @ThomasDrance ↗2026-10-02
ReportedJonathan Lekkerimäki — #Canucks lines rushes at practice: Rossi - Pettersson - Karlsson Öhgren - Cotter - Boeser *O’Connor - Räty - Gallagher* Bains - Sasson - Lekkerimäki Buium - Hronek Oleksiak - Willander Pettersson - Schenn *O’Connor, Gallagher & DeBrusk have been rotating in together. · @tyson_cole ↗2026-10-02
ReportedMarco Rossi — Rossi redirects it in, but the call on the ice is no goal. #LetsGoOilers · @EdmontonOilers ↗2026-10-02
Each item names its source. Kodo's own projected line changes are not reported here.

Where this team sits

last season vs projection‹ 2 / 12 ›
25-2626-27Change
Goals for2.5630th2.4731st-0.09▼1
Goals against3.8332nd3.5332nd-0.30
Power play21.814th21.3514th=-0.45~
Penalty kill71.532nd78.6310th+7.13▲22
Faceoffs49.320th50.1414th+0.84▲6
Points percentage0.35432nd0.41732nd+0.063
How these projections are made
Both bars share one scale per row — the wider of the two league ranges — so a bar that moves is a number that moved. The grey tick is that column's league average, and the arrow is the change in league rank. Goals-against and expected-goals-against rank ascending, so low is good and green always means improved.
Goals for, goals against and points percentage come from the roster: summed player projections over the real 26-27 schedule, last season's expected goals against regressed toward the league and adjusted for projected goaltending, and a game-by-game simulation of that schedule.
The special teams are projected from how much each number actually carries over year to year, measured across 298 team-season pairs going back to 2010-11. The power play uses one prior season shrunk 0.36; the penalty kill uses three, weighted .5/.3/.2 and shrunk 0.38. Special teams barely persist, so a league-worst penalty kill is mostly bad luck and comes most of the way back, while the faceoff dot is a repeatable team skill. How far a club moves depends on how far from the mean it started: Vancouver sits near league average on both the power play and the faceoff dot and barely shifts, while Edmonton's 30.6% power play comes back to the middle and this penalty kill, worst in the league, is the biggest riser of all 32.
The penalty kill averages three seasons because one measures it so badly. Split a single season's spread into ability and sampling noise — a kill rate is a binomial over about 250 opportunities, so the noise is known rather than guessed — and only 33% of the gap between clubs is real. Divide the year-over-year correlation by that and the ability underneath comes out near 1.0: penalty killing is almost perfectly persistent and merely hard to see in one season. The cure for a noisy measurement is more of it, and three seasons beat one by 4.3% out of sample. Because averaging reorders clubs, that row's rank is a real forecast; the rows marked = are single-season regressions, which compress the values but keep them in order, so their rank is last season's by construction and only the value is a prediction.
A roster-aware faceoff model was built and rejected on the evidence. Draw counts are not stored, but they can be recovered exactly from the per-game percentages, and with real draws a club's number reconstructs from its own centres. It still does not predict better: given a club's first half to learn from and even handed the second half's draw distribution, it scored 2.24 against the plain regression's 2.26 across 32 clubs, and the best blend of the two puts almost no weight on it. A team's faceoff percentage already carries who takes its draws. Expected goals has no team projection at all, so that row shows last season alone.

How last season went

in quarters — where the season was won and lost‹ 3 / 12 ›
They held about the same pace all year — -12 points of win percentage between the first quarter and the last.
Oct–Nov10-09 – 11-16
45%9-11
for3.10
against3.45
Nov–Jan11-17 – 01-03
33%7-14
for2.62
against3.52
Jan–Mar01-06 – 03-04
10%2-18
for2.00
against4.35
Mar–Apr03-06 – 04-16
33%7-14
for2.81
against4.10

Schedule shape

games per week and per month, light nights, back-to-backs‹ 4 / 12 ›
Light nights
31%8th
26 of 84 games
Four-game weeks
622nd
5 weeks of two or fewer
Back-to-backs
1112th
roughly one backup start each
Playoff-week games
923rd
over 3 weeks · 1 back-to-back
Games per week
2026-09-28on light nights2027-04-05
Games by month
Sep*
1
Oct
15
Nov
13
Dec
13
Jan
14
Feb
10
Mar
14
Apr*
4
* part of a month — the season opens and closes mid-month.

Projected lineup

lines, pairs and both special teams, with what each man projects for‹ 5 / 12 ›
Lineup notes
This is the lineup the club can ice on opening night, not its best-case group. A player expected to miss more than the opening month is left out and his slot goes to whoever takes it — he keeps his projection below, he is out of the lineup, not out of the season.
Filip Chytil — Shoulder: IR. Expected to be out until at least Oct 8 · still projected 62 games
Projected ice time totals 298.1 of the 300 skater-minutes a game has. Power play 3.16′ on the first unit, 1.79′ on the second; the kill 2.35′, 1.67′ and 1′ across three units — all measured.Change this lineup →

Forward lines

L1
LW
Marco RossiG: 72nd percentileA: 81st percentilePPP: 83rd percentileSOG: 54th percentileHIT: 43rd percentileBLK: 44th percentilePIM: 32nd percentileGAPPPSOGHITBLKPIM
52 pts · 19.0′
18G · 34A · 116SOG · 62HIT · 41BLK
C
Elias Pettersson (C)G: 75th percentileA: 88th percentilePPP: 89th percentileSOG: 69th percentileHIT: 59th percentileBLK: 84th percentilePIM: 22nd percentileGAPPPSOGHITBLKPIM
61 pts · 20.3′
20G · 41A · 141SOG · 78HIT · 100BLK
RW
Linus KarlssonG: 58th percentileA: 44th percentilePPP: 47th percentileSOG: 46th percentileHIT: 58th percentileBLK: 8th percentilePIM: 62nd percentileGAPPPSOGHITBLKPIM
30 pts · 18.0′
13G · 17A · 101SOG · 76HIT · 23BLK
L2
LW
Liam OhgrenG: 39th percentileA: 23rd percentilePPP: 34th percentileSOG: 43rd percentileHIT: 48th percentileBLK: 37th percentilePIM: 0th percentileGAPPPSOGHITBLKPIM
18 pts · 16.2′
8G · 10A · 96SOG · 66HIT · 37BLK
C
Paul CotterG: 41st percentileA: 9th percentilePPP: 29th percentileSOG: 21st percentileHIT: 97th percentileBLK: 13th percentilePIM: 56th percentileGAPPPSOGHITBLKPIM
14 pts · 15.2′
8G · 6A · 71SOG · 206HIT · 26BLK
RW
Brock BoeserG: 83rd percentileA: 72nd percentilePPP: 86th percentileSOG: 78th percentileHIT: 43rd percentileBLK: 23rd percentilePIM: 3rd percentileGAPPPSOGHITBLKPIM
52 pts · 18.2′
24G · 28A · 162SOG · 62HIT · 30BLK
L3
LW
Drew O'ConnorG: 62nd percentileA: 29th percentilePPP: 24th percentileSOG: 56th percentileHIT: 55th percentileBLK: 31st percentilePIM: 69th percentileGAPPPSOGHITBLKPIM
26 pts · 14.6′
15G · 12A · 119SOG · 73HIT · 34BLK
C
Aatu RätyG: 30th percentileA: 18th percentilePPP: 24th percentileSOG: 16th percentileHIT: 89th percentileBLK: 3rd percentilePIM: 33rd percentileGAPPPSOGHITBLKPIM
14 pts · 12.2′
6G · 8A · 65SOG · 150HIT · 18BLK
RW
Brendan GallagherG: 54th percentileA: 34th percentilePPP: 47th percentileSOG: 52nd percentileHIT: 63rd percentileBLK: 9th percentilePIM: 69th percentileGAPPPSOGHITBLKPIM
25 pts · 12.2′
12G · 13A · 111SOG · 83HIT · 23BLK
L4
LW
Jake DeBruskG: 88th percentileA: 51st percentilePPP: 87th percentileSOG: 89th percentileHIT: 58th percentileBLK: 40th percentilePIM: 8th percentileGAPPPSOGHITBLKPIM
46 pts · 12.4′
26G · 20A · 192SOG · 77HIT · 38BLK
C
Max SassonG: 46th percentileA: 16th percentilePPP: 46th percentileSOG: 40th percentileHIT: 32nd percentileBLK: 55th percentilePIM: 61st percentileGAPPPSOGHITBLKPIM
17 pts · 10.7′
10G · 7A · 93SOG · 48HIT · 50BLK
RW
Jonathan LekkerimäkiG: 14th percentileA: 1st percentilePPP: 30th percentileSOG: 1st percentileHIT: 11th percentileBLK: 1st percentilePIM: 0th percentileGAPPPSOGHITBLKPIM
5 pts · 12.5′
3G · 2A · 34SOG · 27HIT · 13BLK

Defence pairs

D1
LD
Zeev BuiumG: 32nd percentileA: 64th percentilePPP: 76th percentileSOG: 38th percentileHIT: 16th percentileBLK: 70th percentilePIM: 76th percentileGAPPPSOGHITBLKPIM
31 pts · 21.2′
7G · 24A · 91SOG · 32HIT · 70BLK
RD
Filip HronekG: 35th percentileA: 84th percentilePPP: 81st percentileSOG: 56th percentileHIT: 79th percentileBLK: 79th percentilePIM: 64th percentileGAPPPSOGHITBLKPIM
45 pts · 23.9′
7G · 38A · 120SOG · 120HIT · 93BLK
D2
LD
Jamie OleksiakG: 10th percentileA: 12th percentilePPP: 7th percentileSOG: 20th percentileHIT: 72nd percentileBLK: 91st percentilePIM: 65th percentileGAPPPSOGHITBLKPIM
9 pts · 19.2′
2G · 7A · 71SOG · 100HIT · 121BLK
RD
Tom WillanderG: 25th percentileA: 50th percentilePPP: 49th percentileSOG: 25th percentileHIT: 25th percentileBLK: 78th percentilePIM: 59th percentileGAPPPSOGHITBLKPIM
24 pts · 19.6′
5G · 19A · 76SOG · 40HIT · 90BLK
D3
LD
Elias Pettersson (D)G: 6th percentileA: 8th percentilePPP: 7th percentileSOG: 7th percentileHIT: 80th percentileBLK: 74th percentilePIM: 68th percentileGAPPPSOGHITBLKPIM
7 pts · 16.5′
2G · 5A · 53SOG · 124HIT · 79BLK
RD
Luke SchennG: 1st percentileA: 4th percentilePPP: 7th percentileSOG: 5th percentileHIT: 95th percentileBLK: 71st percentilePIM: 76th percentileGAPPPSOGHITBLKPIM
5 pts · 16.5′
1G · 4A · 47SOG · 190HIT · 70BLK

Special teams

Scratches & depth

Roster movement & minutes

who changed, and the minutes freed‹ 6 / 12 ›
Life after Hughes
Quinn Hughes played his last game for this club on 2025-12-11 and is now in MIN. Team scoring went 2.74 → 2.49 goals a game over the 51 games after.
Defence — who took the minutes
toiafterΔp/gmafterΔ
Willander13.7′18.4′+4.70.380.27-0.12
Pettersson13.5′16′+2.50.140.140
Hronek24.4′25.4′+1.00.520.65+0.13
Forwards
toiafterΔp/gmafterΔ
Karlsson10.4′13.7′+3.30.360.49+0.13
Pettersson20.6′17.9′-2.70.790.63-0.16
Kane17.5′15.6′-1.90.50.39-0.11
Räty12.1′12′-0.10.390.08-0.31
DeBrusk17.9′16.2′-1.70.450.56+0.11
Not a controlled experiment — the same window also saw Myers leave 2026-02-04, Blueger leave 2026-04-16, Pettersson leave 2026-04-16, Garland leave 2026-03-04, Joseph leave 2026-04-09, Sherwood leave 2026-01-10, Douglas leave 2026-04-16, Hoglander leave 2026-04-16. Read the deltas as role changes, not pure cause and effect.
In Rossi, Buium, Gallagher, Ohgren, Cotter, Oleksiak, Schenn, Mynio, Alriksson, Chiarot, Fix-Wolansky, Patterson
Callup Lekkerimäki, Brisebois
Out Hughes→MIN, Sherwood→SJS, Garland→CBJ, Kane, Pettersson→NYR, Blueger, Myers→DAL, Joseph
Karlsson12.5→16.1 +3.6
Sasson11.7→14.3 +2.6
Ohgren13.2→15.7 +2.5
Willander17→19.4 +2.4
Buium19.6→21.6 +2
O'Connor14.6→16.4 +1.8
Hronek25→26.7 +1.7
Lekkerimäki11.7→13.3 +1.6
Biggest projected minute changes either way — a club's ice time is a fixed budget, so the departures above are what free it up. Full board →

Camp battles

contested roles, priced in points‹ 7 / 12 ›
Top power-play unit — quarterback7.4 pts at stake
holds it
Filip Hronek
45 proj pts · 26.7′ · 2′ PP
vs
pushing
Zeev Buium
31 proj pts · 21.6′ · 2.4′ PP
Filip Hronekmodel favours the incumbentZeev Buium
The full read · every number checked against the data · 2026-08-10

The stakes. Quinn Hughes played his last game as a Canuck on 2025-12-11, and the quarterback spot on the top unit has been open since. Kodo prices the promotion at 10.8 points, on a gap of 1.40 measured power-play minutes per game. PP1 skaters averaged 3.15 last season (n=158) against 1.75 for PP2 (n=157). With Vancouver projected last in the league in points percentage at 0.35 and 30th in goals for at 2.56, the power play (21.8%, 14th of 32) is the most valuable real estate on this roster.

1.40 more min/game on PP1 (measured PP1 vs PP2 minutes), at the challenger's own scoring rate over a full season. Power-play gaps come from measured PP minutes last season; even-strength gaps from the role model that drives every projection on this page.
Top power-play unit — forward slot9.7 pts at stake
holds it
Linus Karlsson
30 proj pts · 16.1′ · 1.5′ PP
vs
pushing
Paul Cotter
14 proj pts · 9.5′ · 0.3′ PP
Linus Karlssonmodel favours the incumbentPaul Cotter

Power play

21.8% last season · who it runs through, and what is left of it‹ 8 / 12 ›
Conversion
21.8%
on the man advantage
PP goals
55
564 shots
Expected goals
55.4
-0.4 vs actual
Shooting
9.8%
of PP shots go in
What left the power play
Hughes carried 18% of the power-play points on 6% of its minutes — a focal score of 2.97. He is not on this roster.
Sherwood carried 7% of the power-play points on 5% of its minutes — a focal score of 1.27. He is not on this roster.
Who it runs through · last season
PlayerPP/gmSharePPGPPAPPP/60ixGIPPFocal
Rossi2.68′56%311149.491.446%1.69
Buium1.88′39%310139.231.454%1.63
Hronek2′42%417217.672.259%1.36
DeBrusk3.01′63%195245.915.356%1.04
Pettersson3.11′65%418225.736.155%1.01
Boeser3.22′67%613194.727.146%0.84
Karlsson1.45′30%2242.093.547%0.37
Willander1.34′28%0331.910.8—0.33
O'Connor0.5′10%00000.7—0
What IPP, focal and ixG mean
IPP is the share of the power-play goals he was on the ice for that he got a point on. It is the direct form of “the play runs through him”: two men can take the same unit minutes while one touches the puck on every goal and the other watches from the far circle. League average on the power play is 59%. It is computed from the on-ice record of every goal, corrected for the ~18% of goals with no on-ice row and shrunk toward the positional mean for thin samples, so it cannot exceed 1.
Focal is the older, cruder version — his share of the team's power-play points over his share of its minutes. It is team-relative, so it moves when a teammate is injured; IPP does not. ixG is the expected goals from his own shots on the man advantage. Minutes are measured, not modelled.
Projected PP1DeBrusk21 PPP (24 last yr)Boeser21 PPP (19 last yr)Pettersson24 PPP (22 last yr)Hronek17 PPP (21 last yr)Karlsson4 PPP (4 last yr)Rossi19 PPP (14 last yr)
Projected PP2Willander5 PPP (3 last yr)Buium14 PPP (13 last yr)Ohgren1 PPPLekkerimäki1 PPPCotter1 PPP (1 last yr)

Hits, blocks and the rest

what a banger league is won with‹ 9 / 12 ›
Hits
17308th
projected, this roster · of 32
Blocks
104330th
projected, this roster · of 32
Shots
195732nd
projected, this roster · of 32
Penalty minutes
57230th
projected, this roster · of 32
Faceoff wins
203917th
projected, this roster · of 32
H+B
277316th
projected, this roster · of 32
S+H+B
472928th
projected, this roster · of 32
Who supplies them
PlayerGPHits/60Blks/60PKPIMFOW+/-H+BS+H+B
Schenn RD358190▲13.05704.991.843—-7260306
Cotter L2·PP27820613.63261.560.13156-14232303
Oleksiak LD2791005.11214.821.836—+5221292
Hronek RD1·PP1771203.89932.932.4361-10213332
Pettersson LD3671247.77794.861.338—-7203255
Pettersson L1·PP177782.861004.611.020608-17178319
Räty L36215012.5181.210.923425-2168233
Willander RD2·PP276401.76903.930.633—-9130206
O'Connor L377733.86341.31.13846-7107225
Gallagher L372836.16231.260.1385-3106217
Buium LD1·PP279321.13702.220.143—-14102192
DeBrusk L481772.89381.490.81512-18115307
Karlsson L1·PP171765.04231.340.13513-1099199
Mancini4655▲5.11574.740.417—-6111147
Sasson L47848▲2.33502.80.234119-598191
Rossi L1·PP17562▲3.22412.060.523411-14103219
Ohgren L2·PP265664.55372.70.589-8103199
Boeser L2·PP179622.26301.091.01244-3192254
Bains4139▲5.59131.160.2174-25282
Chytil6223▲1.33191.330.124286-1142178
Lekkerimäki L4·PP23427▲3.94131.97—7—-24074
What actually moves these numbers
Penalty-kill time is the strongest driver of blocks we can measure. Across 1,504 consecutive season pairs, a skater who gains a minute of shorthanded time a game adds a median 9.5 blocks over 84 games — a defenceman 16 — and the effect runs monotonically the other way too: lose a minute and it is −15.6, or −25.9 for a defenceman. The PK column is here for that reason.
But it is mostly the minutes, not the man. Shorthanded time correlates +0.52 with blocks per 60 across players and only +0.14 within the same player year to year, which says coaches pick shot-blockers for the kill more than the kill turns anyone into one. A player promoted onto PK1 gains blocks because he is on the ice for more shots, not because he changed — so price the ice time, not a breakout.
Hits run opposite to ice time. Total minutes correlate −0.57 with hits per 60, and −0.60 among forwards: the fourth line hits, the first line does not. So a rate beats a total here more than in any other category, which is what the /60 columns are for — a checker on eleven minutes at 12 hits per 60 is worth more than a first-liner at 5 on nineteen, and their season totals can look identical.
Power-play time predicts the absence of all of it — −0.43 with hits per 60, −0.47 with blocks, −0.26 with penalty minutes. The men who run a power play are not the men who supply a banger roster, which is why the two sections of this page rarely name anybody twice.
Faceoff wins are a volume category. They track draws taken far more than win rate, so the man to want is the one taking the most — normally the first-line centre and whoever takes defensive-zone draws on the kill.
Measured on 2022-23 through 2025-26, skaters with 40+ games and 200+ minutes at both ends of each pair.

Contracts and the cap

what the roster costs, and who reaches the market‹ 10 / 12 ›
$83.1Mcommitted · 23 of 23 on file
11reach the market after this season

Pending free agents · this summer

Brendan GallagherRUFA$6.50M25 pts
Filip ChytilCUFA$4.44M26 pts
Drew O'ConnorLUFA$2.50M26 pts
Luke SchennDUFA$2.25M5 pts
Paul CotterLUFA$2.15M14 pts
Leevi MeriläinenGRFA$1.10M
Zeev BuiumDRFA$0.97M31 pts
Jonathan LekkerimäkiRRFA$0.92M5 pts
Liam OhgrenLRFA$0.89M18 pts
Aatu RätyCRFA$0.81M14 pts
Arshdeep BainsLUFA$0.81M3 pts

Free the summer after

Jamie OleksiakD$5.00M9 pts
Marco RossiC$5.00M52 pts
Linus KarlssonR$2.25M30 pts
Victor ManciniD$1.00M3 pts
Max SassonC$1.00M17 pts
Tom WillanderD$0.95M24 pts

Biggest cap hits

Elias PetterssonC$11.60M5y left · NMC
Thatcher DemkoG$8.50M2y left
Brock BoeserR$7.25M5y left · NMC
Filip HronekD$7.25M5y left · NMC
Brendan GallagherR$6.50Mfinal yr · M-NTC, NMC
Jake DeBruskL$5.50M4y left · NMC
Jamie OleksiakD$5.00M1y left · M-NTC
Marco RossiC$5.00M1y left

Cap hits from CapWages for the 23 men on file. A dash is a figure we do not have, usually a restricted free agent whose entry-level deal has lapsed, and those are left out of the committed total rather than counted as nothing.

The crease

GSAx last season, projected next‹ 11 / 12 ›
GSAx view
Lankinen
43 NHL starts last season
GSAx / start
-0.459
lg -0.04057th pctile
Shot quality faced
0.1092
lg 0.10481st hardest
2.20-1.113977
10-start rolling GSAx · appearance 1-77 · shared scale
2026-27 projection
45 GS15 W (9–19)0.883 SV%3.53 GAA
2025-26 actual · NHL
43 GS11 W0.875 SV%3.70 GAA
Meriläinen
19 NHL starts last season, with OTT
GSAx / start
-1.058
lg -0.04050th pctile
Shot quality faced
0.0961
lg 0.1040th hardest
2.20-1.112346
10-start rolling GSAx · appearance 1-46 · shared scale
2026-27 projection
36 GS14 W (8–18)0.888 SV%2.86 GAA
2025-26 actual · NHL
19 GS8 W0.860 SV%3.51 GAA
Demko
20 NHL starts last seasonOUT · Hip
GSAx / start
0.193
lg -0.040569th pctile
Shot quality faced
0.1126
lg 0.10491st hardest
2.20-1.111530
10-start rolling GSAx · appearance 1-30 · shared scale
2026-27 projection
4 GS2 W (1–2)0.893 SV%2.79 GAA
2025-26 actual · NHL
20 GS8 W0.897 SV%2.90 GAA
Tolopilogone
18 NHL starts last season
GSAx / start
-0.098
lg -0.040545th pctile
Shot quality faced
0.1155
lg 0.10494th hardest
2.20-1.112141
10-start rolling GSAx · appearance 1-41 · shared scale
2026-27 projection
— GS— W— SV%— GAA
2025-26 actual · NHL
18 GS6 W0.881 SV%3.61 GAA
Pateragone
1 NHL start last season
GSAx / start
—
Shot quality faced
0.0897
lg 0.1040th hardest
2.20-1.11816
10-start rolling GSAx · appearance 1-16 · shared scale
2026-27 projection
— GS— W— SV%— GAA
2025-26 actual · NHL
1 GS0 W0.825 SV%7.39 GAA
GSAx is goals saved above expected — what the shots he faced were worth, minus what he actually allowed. Shown per start, because a backup cannot out-accumulate a starter but can out-perform him on a per-night basis. Shot quality faced is expected goals per shot: higher means he was hung out to dry more often, and the percentile is where that workload ranks among goalies with 15+ starts. Rolling form is a 10-start moving average — is he playing well lately; running total is the season's accumulated damage. Per-game GSAx is too noisy to read either from directly.

Projections — Every Skater

the reference table · Overall is value as a z-score against the league, so +1.00 is a standard deviation above average‹ 12 / 12
Forwards · 14
PlayerRoleAgeOverallADPGPGAP / if fitPPPSHPSOGHITBLKPIM+/-FOWH+BS+H+BTrajectorySignals
Elias Pettersson (C)L1·PP128+1.03127.377204160.92411417810020-17608178319decliningice time ↑PP1
Jake DeBruskL430+0.73207.681262045.9210192773815-1812115307bounce-back
Brock BoeserL2·PP129+0.5919579242851.6211162623012-314492254decliningbounce-backPP1
Marco RossiL1·PP125+0.37245.775183452.1190116624123-14411103219ascendingice time ↑PP1
Drew O'ConnorL328-0.40292.877151226.402119733438-746107225ice time ↑
Linus KarlssonL1·PP127-0.41292.971131730.140101762335-101399199ascendingbounce-backice time ↑PP1
Brendan GallagherL334-0.4529272121325.240111832338-35106217decliningbounce-back
Filip Chytil27-0.57292.462151126/3430136231924-1128642178
Paul CotterL2·PP227-0.57293788613.910712062631-1456232303declining
Max SassonL426-0.80293.178107174093485034-511998191ice time ↑
Aatu RätyL324-0.88292.5626814.200651501823-2425168233
Liam OhgrenL2·PP222-0.89292.46581017.9119666378-89103199ice time ↑
Jonathan LekkerimäkiL4·PP222-1.77292.734325.2/12103427137-204074—ice time ↑
Arshdeep Bains25-1.79291.941123.10030391317-245282—

Shading is that man's percentile among all projected forwards in the league, not among these 14. top 10% top 20 top 30 bottom 20. H+B and S+H+B take the weaker leg, because good at both is a floor rather than an average. P, SHP, PIM, +/- and FOW are unshaded — the percentile block does not carry them.

Defence · 8
PlayerRoleAgeOverallADPGPGAP / if fitPPPSHPSOGHITBLKPIM+/-FOWH+BS+H+BTrajectorySignals
Filip HronekRD1·PP129+0.51151.67773844.91711201209336-101213332ice time ↑PP1
Zeev BuiumLD1·PP221-0.37184.27972430.814091327043-140102192—ice time ↑
Tom WillanderRD2·PP221-0.67292.77651923.75076409033-90130206—ice time ↑
Jamie OleksiakLD234-0.79293.279278.8007110012136+50221292
Luke SchennRD337-0.86291.258144.700471907043-70260306
Elias Pettersson (D)LD322-0.99292.967256.900531247938-70203255
Victor Mancini24-1.56—46133.30036555717-60111147declining
Guillaume Brisebois29—————————————————

Shading is that man's percentile among all projected defencemen in the league, not among these 8. top 10% top 20 top 30 bottom 20. H+B and S+H+B take the weaker leg, because good at both is a floor rather than an average. P, SHP, PIM, +/- and FOW are unshaded — the percentile block does not carry them.

Goalies · 5
GoalieGSWLOTLSV%GAASVSAGASHOGSAxGSAx/GS
Kevin Lankinen45152550.8833.53117013251551.1-19.7-0.459
Leevi Meriläinen36141740.8882.867998991001.8-20.1-1.058
Thatcher Demko42210.8932.7992103110.3+3.90.193
Nikita Tolopilo——————————-1.8-0.098
Jiri Patera——————————-3.4—

Projected record and projected ice time are model estimates; ranks, lines, projections and trend signals trace to real data.

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