10/05 Fight Watch: Wild at Lightning, Hodgson, Viel

Published 5 October 2026, 6:39 am ET

Every NHL game from October 5 to October 11, ranked by the chance it has at least one fight, with each team's most likely fighters. Last season 20% of games had a fight; this week 24 of 47 games rate at least 1.2 times that.

The likeliest is Wild at Lightning on Thu (46%), and the week's most likely fighter is Hayden Hodgson (OTT), 0.50 expected fights across 4 games.

The week, game by game

Tap a night to filter, or show only the games above average. Each card has both teams' two most likely fighters and their own chance of fighting in that game.

47 games

MIN at TBL

Thu 10/8

46%

chance of a fight

2.3x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Jeffrey VielTBL · 6'0" · 218 lb

Marcus FolignoMIN · 6'3" · 226 lb

First meeting in a fight

MIN

Marcus Foligno14% to fight

Michael McCarron13% to fight

TBL

Jeffrey Viel20% to fight

Emil Lilleberg7% to fight

OTT at BOS

Mon 10/5

44%

chance of a fight

2.3x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Tanner JeannotBOS · 6'2" · 222 lb

11%

Hayden HodgsonOTT · 6'2" · 221 lb

Fought once before, last Mar 2022

OTT

Hayden Hodgson20% to fight

Nick Cousins4% to fight

BOS

Mark Kastelic12% to fight

Tanner Jeannot11% to fight

MIN at FLA

Sat 10/10

39%

chance of a fight

2.0x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Bokondji ImamaFLA · 6'1" · 223 lb

Marcus FolignoMIN · 6'3" · 226 lb

First meeting in a fight

MIN

Marcus Foligno12% to fight

Michael McCarron11% to fight

FLA

Bokondji Imama13% to fight

Brady Tkachuk8% to fight

UTA at BOS

Thu 10/8

39%

chance of a fight

2.0x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Tanner JeannotBOS · 6'2" · 222 lb

Jack McBainUTA · 6'4" · 219 lb

First meeting in a fight

UTA

Jack McBain12% to fight

Lawson Crouse5% to fight

BOS

Mark Kastelic11% to fight

Tanner Jeannot10% to fight

NYR at WSH

Fri 10/9

38%

chance of a fight

1.9x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Tom WilsonWSH · 6'4" · 230 lb

Matt RempeNYR · 6'9" · 268 lb

First meeting in a fight

NYR

Matt Rempe16% to fight

Will Cuylle6% to fight

WSH

Tom Wilson14% to fight

Vincent Desharnais7% to fight

CBJ at STL

Sat 10/10

34%

chance of a fight

1.8x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Ross JohnstonSTL · 6'5" · 235 lb

13%

Mathieu OlivierCBJ · 6'1" · 232 lb

Fought once before, last Feb 2024

CBJ

Mathieu Olivier15% to fight

Ryan Lomberg5% to fight

STL

Ross Johnston17% to fight

Jake Neighbours4% to fight

FLA at LAK

Tue 10/6

34%

chance of a fight

1.7x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Samuel HeleniusLAK · 6'6" · 225 lb

Bokondji ImamaFLA · 6'1" · 223 lb

First meeting in a fight

FLA

Bokondji Imama11% to fight

Brady Tkachuk7% to fight

LAK

Samuel Helenius13% to fight

Corey Perry5% to fight

ANA at CGY

Sat 10/10

30%

chance of a fight

1.6x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Adam KlapkaCGY · 6'8" · 235 lb

A.J. GreerANA · 6'3" · 224 lb

First meeting in a fight

ANA

A.J. Greer8% to fight

Jeff Malott6% to fight

CGY

Adam Klapka13% to fight

Martin Pospisil6% to fight

PHI at TBL

Mon 10/5

30%

chance of a fight

1.5x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Jeffrey VielTBL · 6'0" · 218 lb

Nick SeelerPHI · 6'3" · 197 lb

Fought once before, last Dec 2021

PHI

Porter Martone7% to fight

Simon Benoit6% to fight

TBL

Jeffrey Viel14% to fight

Emil Lilleberg5% to fight

EDM at ANA

Wed 10/7

30%

chance of a fight

1.5x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

A.J. GreerANA · 6'3" · 224 lb

Vasily PodkolzinEDM · 6'1" · 212 lb

Fought 2 times before, last Dec 2024

EDM

Trent Frederic7% to fight

Colton Dach6% to fight

ANA

A.J. Greer8% to fight

Jeff Malott6% to fight

MIN at BUF

Tue 10/6

29%

chance of a fight

1.5x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Sam CarrickBUF · 6'0" · 209 lb

Nick FolignoMIN · 6'0" · 210 lb

Fought 2 times before, last Mar 2022

MIN

Marcus Foligno9% to fight

Michael McCarron9% to fight

BUF

Sam Carrick11% to fight

Peyton Krebs4% to fight

LAK at VGK

Sat 10/10

28%

chance of a fight

1.5x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Jeremy LauzonVGK · 6'3" · 230 lb

Samuel HeleniusLAK · 6'6" · 225 lb

First meeting in a fight

LAK

Samuel Helenius11% to fight

Corey Perry4% to fight

VGK

Jeremy Lauzon13% to fight

Marc Gatcomb4% to fight

VGK at SEA

Tue 10/6

28%

chance of a fight

1.4x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Curtis DouglasSEA · 6'9" · 242 lb

Jeremy LauzonVGK · 6'3" · 230 lb

First meeting in a fight

VGK

Jeremy Lauzon13% to fight

Marc Gatcomb3% to fight

SEA

Curtis Douglas15% to fight

Ville Ottavainen4% to fight

ANA at WPG

Fri 10/9

28%

chance of a fight

1.4x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Tyrel BauerWPG · 6'3" · 207 lb

A.J. GreerANA · 6'3" · 224 lb

First meeting in a fight

ANA

A.J. Greer7% to fight

Jeff Malott6% to fight

WPG

Tyrel Bauer13% to fight

Adam Lowry5% to fight

TBL at NYI

Sat 10/10

28%

chance of a fight

1.4x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Logan StanleyNYI · 6'7" · 231 lb

Jeffrey VielTBL · 6'0" · 218 lb

First meeting in a fight

TBL

Jeffrey Viel13% to fight

Emil Lilleberg4% to fight

NYI

Logan Stanley9% to fight

Brayden Schenn6% to fight

PHI at BOS

Sat 10/10

28%

chance of a fight

1.4x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Tanner JeannotBOS · 6'2" · 222 lb

Porter MartonePHI · 6'3" · 214 lb

First meeting in a fight

PHI

Porter Martone6% to fight

Simon Benoit6% to fight

BOS

Mark Kastelic8% to fight

Tanner Jeannot7% to fight

SEA at WSH

Sun 10/11

27%

chance of a fight

1.4x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Tom WilsonWSH · 6'4" · 230 lb

10%

Curtis DouglasSEA · 6'9" · 242 lb

Fought once before, last Nov 2025

SEA

Curtis Douglas14% to fight

Ville Ottavainen4% to fight

WSH

Tom Wilson10% to fight

Vincent Desharnais5% to fight

OTT at DET

Tue 10/6

26%

chance of a fight

1.3x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Keegan KolesarDET · 6'2" · 218 lb

Hayden HodgsonOTT · 6'2" · 221 lb

First meeting in a fight

OTT

Hayden Hodgson12% to fight

Nick Cousins3% to fight

DET

Andreas Englund7% to fight

Keegan Kolesar7% to fight

NYI at NYR

Tue 10/6

26%

chance of a fight

1.3x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Matt RempeNYR · 6'9" · 268 lb

Logan StanleyNYI · 6'7" · 231 lb

First meeting in a fight

NYI

Logan Stanley9% to fight

Brayden Schenn5% to fight

NYR

Matt Rempe12% to fight

Will Cuylle4% to fight

VAN at NYR

Sun 10/11

26%

chance of a fight

1.3x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Matt RempeNYR · 6'9" · 268 lb

Luke SchennVAN · 6'2" · 225 lb

First meeting in a fight

VAN

Luke Schenn11% to fight

Jamie Oleksiak4% to fight

NYR

Matt Rempe11% to fight

Will Cuylle4% to fight

TOR at VGK

Thu 10/8

25%

chance of a fight

1.3x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Jeremy LauzonVGK · 6'3" · 230 lb

Brandon DuhaimeTOR · 6'2" · 213 lb

Fought once before, last Apr 2022

TOR

Zack MacEwen9% to fight

Brandon Duhaime7% to fight

VGK

Jeremy Lauzon12% to fight

Marc Gatcomb3% to fight

UTA at BUF

Sat 10/10

25%

chance of a fight

1.3x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Sam CarrickBUF · 6'0" · 209 lb

Jack McBainUTA · 6'4" · 219 lb

First meeting in a fight

UTA

Jack McBain8% to fight

Lawson Crouse4% to fight

BUF

Sam Carrick9% to fight

Peyton Krebs4% to fight

DET at MTL

Sat 10/10

24%

chance of a fight

1.2x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Arber XhekajMTL · 6'4" · 240 lb

Keegan KolesarDET · 6'2" · 218 lb

First meeting in a fight

DET

Andreas Englund7% to fight

Keegan Kolesar7% to fight

MTL

Arber Xhekaj11% to fight

Josh Anderson5% to fight

SEA at DET

Fri 10/9

24%

chance of a fight

1.2x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Keegan KolesarDET · 6'2" · 218 lb

Curtis DouglasSEA · 6'9" · 242 lb

First meeting in a fight

SEA

Curtis Douglas13% to fight

Ville Ottavainen3% to fight

DET

Andreas Englund7% to fight

Keegan Kolesar7% to fight

EDM at SJS

Sat 10/10

23%

chance of a fight

1.2x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Barclay GoodrowSJS · 6'2" · 210 lb

Trent FredericEDM · 6'3" · 218 lb

Fought once before, last Nov 2022

EDM

Trent Frederic5% to fight

Colton Dach5% to fight

SJS

Zack Ostapchuk4% to fight

Barclay Goodrow4% to fight

SJS at STL

Thu 10/8

22%

chance of a fight

1.1x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Ross JohnstonSTL · 6'5" · 235 lb

Zack OstapchukSJS · 6'4" · 215 lb

First meeting in a fight

SJS

Zack Ostapchuk3% to fight

Barclay Goodrow3% to fight

STL

Ross Johnston11% to fight

Jake Neighbours3% to fight

NSH at MTL

Thu 10/8

21%

chance of a fight

1.1x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Arber XhekajMTL · 6'4" · 240 lb

Nicolas HagueNSH · 6'6" · 245 lb

First meeting in a fight

NSH

William Trudeau5% to fight

Reid Schaefer4% to fight

MTL

Arber Xhekaj10% to fight

Josh Anderson4% to fight

UTA at NJD

Tue 10/6

19%

chance of a fight

1.0x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Brenden DillonNJD · 6'4" · 225 lb

Jack McBainUTA · 6'4" · 219 lb

First meeting in a fight

UTA

Jack McBain6% to fight

Lawson Crouse3% to fight

NJD

Brenden Dillon8% to fight

Stefan Noesen4% to fight

NSH at OTT

Sat 10/10

19%

chance of a fight

1.0x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Hayden HodgsonOTT · 6'2" · 221 lb

Reid SchaeferNSH · 6'5" · 226 lb

First meeting in a fight

NSH

William Trudeau4% to fight

Reid Schaefer4% to fight

OTT

Hayden Hodgson9% to fight

Nick Cousins2% to fight

NSH at TOR

Tue 10/6

19%

chance of a fight

1.0x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Zack MacEwenTOR · 6'4" · 226 lb

Nicolas HagueNSH · 6'6" · 245 lb

Fought once before, last Apr 2023

NSH

William Trudeau4% to fight

Reid Schaefer4% to fight

TOR

Zack MacEwen7% to fight

Brandon Duhaime6% to fight

STL at CHI

Tue 10/6

19%

chance of a fight

1.0x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Jordan GreenwayCHI · 6'6" · 231 lb

Ross JohnstonSTL · 6'5" · 235 lb

First meeting in a fight

STL

Ross Johnston10% to fight

Jake Neighbours2% to fight

CHI

Cole Smith5% to fight

Jordan Greenway4% to fight

PHI at OTT

Thu 10/8

19%

chance of a fight

1.0x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Hayden HodgsonOTT · 6'2" · 221 lb

Porter MartonePHI · 6'3" · 214 lb

First meeting in a fight

PHI

Porter Martone4% to fight

Simon Benoit4% to fight

OTT

Hayden Hodgson9% to fight

Nick Cousins2% to fight

COL at WPG

Wed 10/7

17%

chance of a fight

0.9x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Tyrel BauerWPG · 6'3" · 207 lb

Josh MansonCOL · 6'3" · 218 lb

First meeting in a fight

COL

Josh Manson5% to fight

Gabriel Landeskog3% to fight

WPG

Tyrel Bauer8% to fight

Adam Lowry3% to fight

PIT at CBJ

Fri 10/9

17%

chance of a fight

0.9x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Mathieu OlivierCBJ · 6'1" · 232 lb

Declan CarlilePIT · 6'3" · 192 lb

First meeting in a fight

PIT

Declan Carlile5% to fight

Connor Dewar4% to fight

CBJ

Mathieu Olivier8% to fight

Ryan Lomberg3% to fight

VAN at NJD

Sat 10/10

16%

chance of a fight

0.8x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Brenden DillonNJD · 6'4" · 225 lb

Luke SchennVAN · 6'2" · 225 lb

First meeting in a fight

VAN

Luke Schenn7% to fight

Jamie Oleksiak3% to fight

NJD

Brenden Dillon6% to fight

Stefan Noesen3% to fight

COL at CGY

Thu 10/8

16%

chance of a fight

0.8x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Adam KlapkaCGY · 6'8" · 235 lb

Josh MansonCOL · 6'3" · 218 lb

First meeting in a fight

COL

Josh Manson5% to fight

Gabriel Landeskog3% to fight

CGY

Adam Klapka7% to fight

Martin Pospisil3% to fight

TOR at COL

Sat 10/10

16%

chance of a fight

0.8x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Josh MansonCOL · 6'3" · 218 lb

Zack MacEwenTOR · 6'4" · 226 lb

First meeting in a fight

TOR

Zack MacEwen6% to fight

Brandon Duhaime5% to fight

COL

Josh Manson5% to fight

Gabriel Landeskog3% to fight

SJS at DAL

Mon 10/5

15%

chance of a fight

0.8x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Arttu HyryDAL · 6'3" · 211 lb

Barclay GoodrowSJS · 6'2" · 210 lb

First meeting in a fight

SJS

Zack Ostapchuk2% to fight

Barclay Goodrow2% to fight

DAL

Lian Bichsel4% to fight

Arttu Hyry3% to fight

CHI at NYI

Thu 10/8

15%

chance of a fight

0.8x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Logan StanleyNYI · 6'7" · 231 lb

Jordan GreenwayCHI · 6'6" · 231 lb

First meeting in a fight

CHI

Cole Smith4% to fight

Jordan Greenway3% to fight

NYI

Logan Stanley5% to fight

Brayden Schenn3% to fight

PIT at WSH

Wed 10/7

15%

chance of a fight

0.8x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Tom WilsonWSH · 6'4" · 230 lb

Declan CarlilePIT · 6'3" · 192 lb

First meeting in a fight

PIT

Declan Carlile5% to fight

Connor Dewar3% to fight

WSH

Tom Wilson6% to fight

Vincent Desharnais3% to fight

DAL at BUF

Thu 10/8

15%

chance of a fight

0.8x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Sam CarrickBUF · 6'0" · 209 lb

Arttu HyryDAL · 6'3" · 211 lb

First meeting in a fight

DAL

Lian Bichsel4% to fight

Arttu Hyry3% to fight

BUF

Sam Carrick6% to fight

Peyton Krebs2% to fight

WPG at PIT

Mon 10/5

13%

chance of a fight

0.7x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Declan CarlilePIT · 6'3" · 192 lb

Tyrel BauerWPG · 6'3" · 207 lb

First meeting in a fight

WPG

Tyrel Bauer6% to fight

Adam Lowry2% to fight

PIT

Declan Carlile4% to fight

Connor Dewar3% to fight

DAL at PIT

Sat 10/10

11%

chance of a fight

0.6x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Declan CarlilePIT · 6'3" · 192 lb

Justin HryckowianDAL · 5'11" · 198 lb

First meeting in a fight

DAL

Lian Bichsel3% to fight

Arttu Hyry2% to fight

PIT

Declan Carlile3% to fight

Connor Dewar2% to fight

CAR at MTL

Tue 10/6

10%

chance of a fight

0.5x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Arber XhekajMTL · 6'4" · 240 lb

Jesperi KotkaniemiCAR · 6'3" · 212 lb

First meeting in a fight

CAR

Andrei Svechnikov2% to fight

Jesperi Kotkaniemi1% to fight

MTL

Arber Xhekaj5% to fight

Josh Anderson2% to fight

CAR at PHI

Sun 10/11

chance of a fight

0.5x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Porter MartonePHI · 6'3" · 214 lb

Jesperi KotkaniemiCAR · 6'3" · 212 lb

First meeting in a fight

CAR

Andrei Svechnikov1% to fight

Jesperi Kotkaniemi1% to fight

PHI

Porter Martone2% to fight

Simon Benoit2% to fight

VAN at CAR

Thu 10/8

chance of a fight

0.3x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Jesperi KotkaniemiCAR · 6'3" · 212 lb

Luke SchennVAN · 6'2" · 225 lb

First meeting in a fight

VAN

Luke Schenn3% to fight

Jamie Oleksiak1% to fight

CAR

Andrei Svechnikov1% to fight

Jesperi Kotkaniemi1% to fight

CAR at CHI

Sat 10/10

chance of a fight

0.3x an average game (line = 20%)

LIKELIEST BOUT

Cole SmithCHI · 6'3" · 195 lb

Andrei SvechnikovCAR · 6'3" · 200 lb

First meeting in a fight

CAR

Andrei Svechnikov1% to fight

Jesperi Kotkaniemi1% to fight

CHI

Cole Smith2% to fight

Jordan Greenway1% to fight

Likeliest bouts this week

Each pair's chance of fighting each other: both players' fight rates, whether they have fought before (that nearly doubles it) and how close they are in weight.

Sat 10/10 · CBJ at STL

Ross JohnstonSTL · 6'5" · 235 lb

13%

Mathieu OlivierCBJ · 6'1" · 232 lb

Fought once before, last Feb 2024

Mon 10/5 · OTT at BOS

Tanner JeannotBOS · 6'2" · 222 lb

11%

Hayden HodgsonOTT · 6'2" · 221 lb

Fought once before, last Mar 2022

Sun 10/11 · SEA at WSH

Tom WilsonWSH · 6'4" · 230 lb

10%

Curtis DouglasSEA · 6'9" · 242 lb

Fought once before, last Nov 2025

Tue 10/6 · VGK at SEA

Curtis DouglasSEA · 6'9" · 242 lb

Jeremy LauzonVGK · 6'3" · 230 lb

First meeting in a fight

Thu 10/8 · MIN at TBL

Jeffrey VielTBL · 6'0" · 218 lb

Marcus FolignoMIN · 6'3" · 226 lb

First meeting in a fight

Thu 10/8 · MIN at TBL

Jeffrey VielTBL · 6'0" · 218 lb

Michael McCarronMIN · 6'6" · 232 lb

First meeting in a fight

Thu 10/8 · TOR at VGK

Jeremy LauzonVGK · 6'3" · 230 lb

Brandon DuhaimeTOR · 6'2" · 213 lb

Fought once before, last Apr 2022

Mon 10/5 · OTT at BOS

Mark KastelicBOS · 6'4" · 231 lb

Hayden HodgsonOTT · 6'2" · 221 lb

First meeting in a fight

Sat 10/10 · LAK at VGK

Jeremy LauzonVGK · 6'3" · 230 lb

Samuel HeleniusLAK · 6'6" · 225 lb

First meeting in a fight

Fri 10/9 · NYR at WSH

Tom WilsonWSH · 6'4" · 230 lb

Matt RempeNYR · 6'9" · 268 lb

First meeting in a fight

Tue 10/6 · FLA at LAK

Samuel HeleniusLAK · 6'6" · 225 lb

Bokondji ImamaFLA · 6'1" · 223 lb

First meeting in a fight

Sat 10/10 · MIN at FLA

Bokondji ImamaFLA · 6'1" · 223 lb

Marcus FolignoMIN · 6'3" · 226 lb

First meeting in a fight

Most likely fighters this week

Expected fights = his chance summed over his games this week. Tap a header to sort.

Player	Games	Expected fights	Best night
Hayden Hodgson	4	0.50	Mon at BOS 20%
Jeffrey Viel	3	0.47	Thu vs MIN 20%
Curtis Douglas	3	0.42	Tue vs VGK 15%
Matt Rempe	3	0.39	Fri at WSH 16%
Jeremy Lauzon	3	0.39	Sat vs LAK 13%
Ross Johnston	3	0.37	Sat vs CBJ 17%
Marcus Foligno	3	0.35	Thu at TBL 14%
Michael McCarron	3	0.33	Thu at TBL 13%
Mark Kastelic	3	0.30	Mon vs OTT 12%
Tom Wilson	3	0.30	Fri vs NYR 14%
Tanner Jeannot	3	0.29	Mon vs OTT 11%
Tyrel Bauer	3	0.28	Fri vs ANA 13%
Jack McBain	3	0.27	Thu at BOS 12%
Sam Carrick	3	0.26	Tue vs MIN 11%
Arber Xhekaj	3	0.25	Sat vs DET 11%
Bokondji Imama	2	0.24	Sat vs MIN 13%
Mathieu Olivier	2	0.24	Sat at STL 15%
Samuel Helenius	2	0.23	Tue vs FLA 13%
A.J. Greer	3	0.23	Sat at CGY 8%
Logan Stanley	3	0.23	Sat vs TBL 9%

The three likeliest

Thu 10/8: Wild at Lightning, 46%

2.3 times an average game. Most likely to drop the gloves: Marcus Foligno (14%) and Michael McCarron (13%) for MIN; Jeffrey Viel (20%) and Emil Lilleberg (7%) for TBL. The likeliest bout is Jeffrey Viel (6'0", 218 lb) against Marcus Foligno (6'3", 226 lb) at 7%; they have not fought before.

Mon 10/5: Senators at Bruins, 44%

2.3 times an average game. Most likely to drop the gloves: Hayden Hodgson (20%) and Nick Cousins (4%) for OTT; Mark Kastelic (12%) and Tanner Jeannot (11%) for BOS. The likeliest bout is Tanner Jeannot (6'2", 222 lb) against Hayden Hodgson (6'2", 221 lb) at 11%; they have fought once, most recently in March 2022.

Sat 10/10: Wild at Panthers, 39%

2.0 times an average game. Most likely to drop the gloves: Marcus Foligno (12%) and Michael McCarron (11%) for MIN; Bokondji Imama (13%) and Brady Tkachuk (8%) for FLA. The likeliest bout is Bokondji Imama (6'1", 223 lb) against Marcus Foligno (6'3", 226 lb) at 4%; they have not fought before.

Likeliest bouts

Each pair's chance of fighting each other this week. A previous bout between two players nearly doubles it, and a big weight gap lowers it.

Bout	Game	Chance	Sizes	History
Ross Johnston vs Mathieu Olivier	CBJ at STL, Sat	12.8%	6'5", 235 lb / 6'1", 232 lb	1x, last Feb 2024
Tanner Jeannot vs Hayden Hodgson	OTT at BOS, Mon	10.7%	6'2", 222 lb / 6'2", 221 lb	1x, last Mar 2022
Tom Wilson vs Curtis Douglas	SEA at WSH, Sun	9.5%	6'4", 230 lb / 6'9", 242 lb	1x, last Nov 2025
Curtis Douglas vs Jeremy Lauzon	VGK at SEA, Tue	7.3%	6'9", 242 lb / 6'3", 230 lb	first time
Jeffrey Viel vs Marcus Foligno	MIN at TBL, Thu	6.6%	6'0", 218 lb / 6'3", 226 lb	first time
Jeffrey Viel vs Michael McCarron	MIN at TBL, Thu	5.7%	6'0", 218 lb / 6'6", 232 lb	first time
Jeremy Lauzon vs Brandon Duhaime	TOR at VGK, Thu	5.6%	6'3", 230 lb / 6'2", 213 lb	1x, last Apr 2022
Mark Kastelic vs Hayden Hodgson	OTT at BOS, Mon	5.4%	6'4", 231 lb / 6'2", 221 lb	first time
Jeremy Lauzon vs Samuel Helenius	LAK at VGK, Sat	5.4%	6'3", 230 lb / 6'6", 225 lb	first time
Tom Wilson vs Matt Rempe	NYR at WSH, Fri	5.2%	6'4", 230 lb / 6'9", 268 lb	first time
Samuel Helenius vs Bokondji Imama	FLA at LAK, Tue	4.8%	6'6", 225 lb / 6'1", 223 lb	first time
Bokondji Imama vs Marcus Foligno	MIN at FLA, Sat	4.4%	6'1", 223 lb / 6'3", 226 lb	first time

Most likely fighters

View

Stat

1Hayden Hodgson OTT

0.50

2Jeffrey Viel TBL

0.47

3Curtis Douglas SEA

0.42

4Matt Rempe NYR

0.39

5Jeremy Lauzon VGK

0.39

6Ross Johnston STL

0.37

7Marcus Foligno MIN

0.35

8Michael McCarron MIN

0.33

9Mark Kastelic BOS

0.30

10Tom Wilson WSH

0.30

11Tanner Jeannot BOS

0.29

12Tyrel Bauer WPG

0.28

13Jack McBain UTA

0.27

14Sam Carrick BUF

0.26

15Arber Xhekaj MTL

0.25

Expected fights: each player's chance summed over his games this week.

Every game

Show the full table · 47 rows

Game	Night	Chance	Likely fighters
MIN at TBL	Thu 10/8	46%	Foligno 14%, Viel 20%
OTT at BOS	Mon 10/5	44%	Hodgson 20%, Kastelic 12%
MIN at FLA	Sat 10/10	39%	Foligno 12%, Imama 13%
UTA at BOS	Thu 10/8	39%	McBain 12%, Kastelic 11%
NYR at WSH	Fri 10/9	38%	Rempe 16%, Wilson 14%
CBJ at STL	Sat 10/10	34%	Olivier 15%, Johnston 16%
FLA at LAK	Tue 10/6	34%	Imama 11%, Helenius 13%
ANA at CGY	Sat 10/10	30%	Greer 8%, Klapka 13%
PHI at TBL	Mon 10/5	30%	Martone 6%, Viel 14%
EDM at ANA	Wed 10/7	30%	Frederic 7%, Greer 8%
MIN at BUF	Tue 10/6	29%	Foligno 9%, Carrick 11%
LAK at VGK	Sat 10/10	28%	Helenius 11%, Lauzon 13%
VGK at SEA	Tue 10/6	28%	Lauzon 13%, Douglas 15%
ANA at WPG	Fri 10/9	28%	Greer 7%, Bauer 13%
TBL at NYI	Sat 10/10	28%	Viel 13%, Stanley 9%
PHI at BOS	Sat 10/10	28%	Martone 6%, Kastelic 8%
SEA at WSH	Sun 10/11	27%	Douglas 14%, Wilson 10%
OTT at DET	Tue 10/6	26%	Hodgson 12%, Englund 7%
NYI at NYR	Tue 10/6	26%	Stanley 8%, Rempe 12%
VAN at NYR	Sun 10/11	26%	Schenn 11%, Rempe 11%
TOR at VGK	Thu 10/8	25%	MacEwen 9%, Lauzon 12%
UTA at BUF	Sat 10/10	25%	McBain 8%, Carrick 9%
DET at MTL	Sat 10/10	24%	Englund 7%, Xhekaj 11%
SEA at DET	Fri 10/9	24%	Douglas 13%, Englund 7%
EDM at SJS	Sat 10/10	23%	Frederic 5%, Ostapchuk 4%
SJS at STL	Thu 10/8	22%	Ostapchuk 3%, Johnston 11%
NSH at MTL	Thu 10/8	21%	Trudeau 5%, Xhekaj 10%
UTA at NJD	Tue 10/6	19%	McBain 6%, Dillon 8%
NSH at OTT	Sat 10/10	19%	Trudeau 4%, Hodgson 9%
NSH at TOR	Tue 10/6	19%	Trudeau 4%, MacEwen 7%
STL at CHI	Tue 10/6	19%	Johnston 10%, Smith 5%
PHI at OTT	Thu 10/8	19%	Martone 4%, Hodgson 9%
COL at WPG	Wed 10/7	17%	Manson 5%, Bauer 8%
PIT at CBJ	Fri 10/9	17%	Carlile 5%, Olivier 8%
VAN at NJD	Sat 10/10	16%	Schenn 7%, Dillon 6%
COL at CGY	Thu 10/8	16%	Manson 4%, Klapka 7%
TOR at COL	Sat 10/10	16%	MacEwen 6%, Manson 4%
SJS at DAL	Mon 10/5	15%	Ostapchuk 2%, Bichsel 4%
CHI at NYI	Thu 10/8	15%	Smith 4%, Stanley 5%
PIT at WSH	Wed 10/7	15%	Carlile 5%, Wilson 6%
DAL at BUF	Thu 10/8	15%	Bichsel 4%, Carrick 6%
WPG at PIT	Mon 10/5	13%	Bauer 6%, Carlile 4%
DAL at PIT	Sat 10/10	11%	Bichsel 3%, Carlile 3%
CAR at MTL	Tue 10/6	10%	Svechnikov 2%, Xhekaj 4%
CAR at PHI	Sun 10/11	9%	Svechnikov 1%, Martone 2%
VAN at CAR	Thu 10/8	6%	Schenn 3%, Svechnikov 1%
CAR at CHI	Sat 10/10	6%	Svechnikov 1%, Smith 2%

How it works

The model reads every regular-season game since 2020-21. The strongest sign of a fight is the weaker side's most willing fighter: a fight takes two, so a game with one enforcer and nobody to answer him rates lower than a game with one on each bench. After that come how many proven fighters each team dresses (from our projected lineups), each team's fight rate and hit rate, the history between the two teams, and the time of year (more in October, fewer in March and April). A player's chance starts from his fight record, recent seasons counting most, including the AHL, OHL, WHL and QMJHL for players new to the NHL (a rookie who fought in junior or the minors is not a blank), then adds how often he hits, his penalty minutes and his size. Each fight takes one player from each bench, so a team's only real fighter carries most of that team's chance.

Tested on all 1312 games of 2025-26, which it never saw: the tenth of games it rated likeliest had a fight 32% of the time, against 20% for all games, and its percentages held up (games it put near 30% fought about 29% of the time). Fights are mostly unpredictable; this separates a likely night from an unlikely one, it does not call fights.

Bouts pair one player from each bench. A pair's chance comes from both players' fight rates, whether they have fought each other before and the gap in their weights. Over 2021-22 to 2025-26, pairs who had fought before fought again five times as often as pairs who had not (5.5% of their games against 1.1%); after allowing for how often each player fights, a previous bout nearly doubles the odds, and each 15 pounds of weight gap makes a bout about a fifth less likely. Height made no difference once weight was known. Bout history covers NHL games since 2020-21.

We also tested the last meeting's penalties, misconducts, hits and injuries. None of them improved the forecast once the lineups were known, so they are not in it.