10/05 Goalie Adds Under 30% Owned: Woll, Silovs, Kochetkov

Published 4 October 2026, 9:14 am ET

Every goalie on 30% of ESPN rosters or fewer for the week of October 5 to October 11, ranked by expected starts: the sum of the start model's probability for each of his club's games. Injured goalies are removed before the odds are read, so a backup covering for a hurt starter shows up at his real workload.

Joseph Woll (PHI) leads with 2.75 expected starts and a 95% chance of two or more.

Start odds, game by game

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Goalie	Exp	2+	W	SV	GA/GS	SO
Joseph WollPHI · 14.4%	2.75	95%	1.29	72	3.08	0.13
Arturs SilovsPIT · 19.9%	2.50	89%	1.06	68	3.41	0.09
Pyotr KochetkovCAR · 7.9%	2.00	79%	1.20	46	2.76	0.14
Stuart SkinnerWPG · 14.8%	1.76	72%	0.78	45	3.22	0.07
Semyon VarlamovNYI · 0.4%	1.61	55%	0.77	41	2.96	0.08
Samuel ErssonOTT · 0.7%	1.57	51%	0.75	36	3.16	0.07
Samuel MontembeaultMTL · 2%	1.56	52%	1.02	36	2.97	0.08
Alex NedeljkovicSJS · 3.8%	1.55	51%	0.79	40	3.16	0.07
Kevin LankinenVAN · 10.2%	1.51	50%	0.33	45	3.98	0.03
Leevi MeriläinenVAN · 0.3%	1.49	50%	0.36	45	3.80	0.03
Yaroslav AskarovSJS · 20%	1.45	49%	0.59	39	3.41	0.05
Jordan BinningtonSTL · 8.1%	1.36	43%	0.66	33	3.21	0.05
Daniil TarasovDET · 1.1%	1.29	39%	0.55	35	3.32	0.05
Clay StevensonWPG · 0.1%	1.24	28%	0.54	32	3.18	0.05
Ville HussoANA · 0.1%	1.22	34%	0.61	27	2.87	0.07
Colten EllisBUF · 0.3%	1.21	28%	0.63	30	2.88	0.07
Jake AllenNJD · 25.5%	1.17	34%	0.81	27	2.71	0.09
Sebastian CossaUTA · 0.9%	1.14	32%	0.58	31	3.15	0.05
Anthony StolarzTOR · 10%	1.11	31%	0.52	32	3.28	0.05
Devon LeviEDM · 3.9%	1.06	28%	0.50	28	3.29	0.04
Casey DeSmithDAL · 4.4%	1.02	27%	0.58	25	2.80	0.06
Adin HillVGK · 5.8%	1.00	26%	0.57	23	2.85	0.06
Cam TalbotCBJ · 1%	0.95	16%	0.45	24	3.16	0.04
Michael DiPietroBOS · 1.1%	0.94	23%	0.51	24	2.97	0.05
Tristan JarryEDM · 9.5%	0.94	22%	0.44	24	3.35	0.03

Each cell is the chance he starts that game, injured goalies removed and confirmed starters at 100%. Shaded columns are light nights (fewer than 8 games). B2B = second night of a back-to-back. The letter grades that start against that opponent, A (best 15% of starts this week) to F (worst 10%). Tap a game to drop it, or a night's header to drop the whole night, and the board re-ranks: wins, saves, goals against and shutouts are each start's projection times his chance of starting it.

Expected value for the week

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Stat

Owned at most30%

1Joseph Woll PHI G

2.75

2Arturs Silovs PIT G

2.50

3Pyotr Kochetkov CAR G

2.00

4Stuart Skinner WPG G

1.76

5Semyon Varlamov NYI G

1.61

6Samuel Ersson OTT G

1.57

7Samuel Montembeault MTL G

1.56

8Alex Nedeljkovic SJS G

1.55

9Kevin Lankinen VAN G

1.51

10Leevi Meriläinen VAN G

1.49

11Yaroslav Askarov SJS G

1.45

12Jordan Binnington STL G

1.36

13Daniil Tarasov DET G

1.29

14Clay Stevenson WPG G

1.24

15Ville Husso ANA G

1.22

Expected wins and saves are the goalie's projected per-start rates times expected starts.

Five creases to watch

Philadelphia: Woll has the net, and faces a lot of shots

Joseph Woll, PHI (14.4% owned)

Dan Vladar opened the season and allowed 7 goals. Joseph Woll has started both games since: 41 saves on 44, then 37 on 40, both overtime losses. We have Woll starting Monday at Tampa Bay, Thursday at Ottawa and Saturday at Boston (85% each), with Vladar most likely taking the Sunday back-to-back vs Carolina. That's 2.75 expected starts and a 95% chance of two or more, the best on the page. The team in front of Woll gives up about 40 shots a night, which is great for saves (77 projected this week) and rough for the win rate.

In leagues that count saves, Woll is the best add on the page.

Pittsburgh: Silovs keeps the job, but Murashov works in

Arturs Silovs, PIT (19.9% owned)

Arturs Silovs started both of Pittsburgh's Week 1 games: a 19-save shutout on opening night, then a win Saturday that came with 5 goals allowed on 25 shots. That second game opens the door for Sergei Murashov. We have Monday vs Winnipeg as a coin flip and Murashov favoured in the Saturday back-to-back vs Dallas. Silovs is at 85% for Wednesday at Washington and Friday at Columbus. That's 2.50 expected starts and an 89% chance of two or more, with three of the four games on light nights.

Carolina: Kochetkov gets two of the four

Pyotr Kochetkov, CAR (7.9% owned)

Brandon Bussi started Carolina's first two games (an overtime loss, then 5 goals allowed on 27 shots). Pyotr Kochetkov got Saturday and won it, stopping 16 of 18. Bussi is still the starter and gets Tuesday at Montreal and Saturday at Chicago, but Kochetkov takes Thursday vs Vancouver and the Sunday back-to-back at Philadelphia (85% each). That's 2.00 expected starts and a 79% chance of two or more, and Thursday grades as an A matchup.

Winnipeg: Skinner holds the net while Hellebuyck is suspended, but skip Monday

Stuart Skinner, WPG (14.8% owned)

With Connor Hellebuyck still suspended, Stuart Skinner has the crease. Skinner is likely in net tonight at Detroit, which makes Monday at Pittsburgh the second night of a back-to-back, and we have Clay Stevenson at 90% for that one. Skinner is back at 82 to 84% for Wednesday vs Colorado and Friday vs Anaheim, both light nights. That's 1.76 expected starts and a 72% chance of two or more.

If your league locks weekly, Skinner's Monday is likely a zero.

Vancouver: still the two-headed monster, still the cheapest ticket

Leevi Meriläinen, VAN (0.3% owned) and Kevin Lankinen, VAN (10.2% owned)

Kevin Lankinen won the opener and then gave up 7 goals on 20 shots in the second game. Leevi Meriläinen started Saturday and stopped 23 of 24 in a win. The model still calls it an even split: 1.51 expected starts for Lankinen and 1.49 for Meriläinen.

The price is the difference. Meriläinen is rostered in 0.3% of ESPN leagues, against Lankinen's 10.2%. If Meriläinen follows Saturday with another good start, the split stops being a split.

Crease notes

Pure speculation for these plays:

BUF: Ellis gets Thursday against Dallas.
CAR: Bussi is the starter (Tuesday and Saturday); Kochetkov is the 1B and gets Thursday and the Sunday back-to-back.
EDM: The pendulum has shifted to Levi: 53% of the starts, Jarry 47%.
MTL: Montembeault gets Thursday against Nashville.
NYI: Varlamov gets Thursday against Chicago.
PHI: Woll starts; Vladar gets one, most likely the Sunday back-to-back.
PIT: Silovs allowed five goals on Saturday; Murashov works in for a start.
SEA: Daccord is the starter, in net Tuesday and Sunday.
SJS: Nedeljkovic gets Saturday against Edmonton.
VGK: Hart starts; Hill gets one of the three.
WPG: Skinner is likely in net Sunday at DET, so Monday is the second night of a back-to-back.

How it works

The start model reads each goalie's rest, his share of recent starts, the second night of a back-to-back and how his last start went. Before a club has played this season, its current depth chart sets the tandem. A confirmed starter from the beat writers replaces the model for that game. Light nights (fewer than eight games) are shaded.

Back-to-backs are chained. Last season the first night's starter also started the second only 8% of the time, so the second night's odds come from who is likely to have started the first. When a club has one healthy goalie on our depth chart, the other night of a back-to-back is left to a call-up.