2026-27 Projections

Full-category forecasts by projected points. Method: four seasons of rates (2022-23 → 2025-26), recency-weighted (6/3/1.5/1 × games played) → regressed to position baseline by sample size, age-adjusted, goals blended with expected goals, 84-game season. Backtest-validated. The Upside view re-weights the scoring stats toward each player's recent ceiling — a draft-board read that trades accuracy for upside; Expected is the accuracy-optimal default.

These are the model's numbers. Think one is wrong? Set your own in the Advanced Projection Sandbox →

Rank by my categoriestick the ones your league counts — the order and the # column follow
📈 Upside view — G / A / P / SOG re-weighted 25% toward each player's recent peak season.
#PlayerTeamPosRolePPTOIGPAgeGAP+/-PPPSHPSOGFOWHITBLK
1Nikita Kucherov TBL · RTBLRL1PP119.37633.30.511.181.69+28.20.550.013.170.010.440.39
2David Pastrnak BOS · RBOSRL1PP120.08030.40.480.921.39+4.90.420.003.670.040.980.37
3Mikko Rantanen DAL · RDALRL1PP119.27829.90.410.851.25+4.90.490.002.461.240.700.50
4Clayton Keller UTA · RUTARL1PP118.28128.20.370.781.15+6.40.380.002.720.170.140.39
5William Nylander TOR · RTORRL1PP118.67930.40.480.711.20-5.70.370.002.810.610.210.37
6Mitch Marner VGK · RVGKRL2PP118.07929.40.310.841.15+14.90.350.022.091.240.430.56
7Cole Caufield MTL · RMTLRL1PP117.67925.70.570.471.05+14.90.330.003.240.070.670.30
8Alex DeBrincat DET · RDETRL2PP117.18228.80.480.521.00+0.70.310.003.310.250.510.47
9Beckett Sennecke ANA · RANARL2PP117.98120.70.390.560.95-4.90.230.022.830.041.200.34
10Mark Stone VGK · RVGKRL1PP118.46334.40.400.741.15+19.70.420.032.060.060.510.71
11Travis Konecny PHI · RPHIRL1PP118.37929.60.340.590.92+4.10.190.042.250.341.290.49
12Adrian Kempe LAK · RLAKRL1PP118.280300.420.480.89+13.50.190.022.780.471.450.46
13Kirill Marchenko CBJ · RCBJRL1PP118.27826.20.380.530.91+7.30.290.012.760.110.770.52
14Ivan Demidov MTL · RMTLRL2PP115.17320.80.290.650.95+1.20.320.001.880.000.390.36
15Drake Batherson OTT · ROTTRL1PP117.77928.40.380.510.89-6.90.380.002.210.191.570.33
16Dylan Guenther UTA · RUTARL2PP116.66923.50.500.500.99+2.00.380.003.200.270.820.43
17Andrei Svechnikov CAR · RCARRL1PP117.07526.50.380.510.89+0.00.350.002.550.091.950.25
18Alex Tuch WSH · RWSHRL1PP218.17830.40.400.430.83+16.70.140.072.370.670.971.13
19Bryan Rust PIT · RPITRL1PP120.17034.40.400.490.89-3.60.290.022.490.050.620.87
20Matvei Michkov PHI · RPHIRL2PP115.27821.80.310.480.79-2.70.210.002.370.070.420.28
21Mats Zuccarello LAK · RLAKRL1PP118.66239.10.290.690.98-3.10.370.002.220.380.350.53
22Tom Wilson WSH · RWSHRL2PP117.57532.50.380.430.81+11.00.180.032.040.192.590.78
23Rickard Rakell PIT · RPITRL1PP119.17333.40.400.410.81-6.00.240.022.550.851.280.74
24Jimmy Snuggerud STL · RSTLRL1PP117.56622.30.360.520.88+5.70.200.002.700.061.010.55
25Jordan Kyrou WSH · RWSHRL1PP117.97528.40.360.410.77-0.10.210.002.610.050.320.41
26Pavel Dorofeyev NYR · RNYRRL2PP116.37525.90.430.310.74-0.40.320.002.840.010.350.39
27JJ Peterka BOS · RBOSRL2PP215.68024.70.320.400.72+2.80.120.002.140.070.270.24
28Patrick Kane CHI · RCHIRL1PP118.46337.90.270.580.86-4.70.310.002.400.070.290.33
29Quinton Byfield LAK · RLAKRL2PP217.87724.10.310.380.69+3.30.150.012.215.500.890.49
30Brock Boeser VAN · RVANRL2PP119.07829.60.320.360.67-30.70.260.012.090.560.780.38
31Luke Evangelista NSH · RNSHRL2PP116.97424.60.190.520.71+0.30.180.002.170.000.320.27
32Jackson Blake CAR · RCARRL2PP116.47423.20.310.380.69+2.90.140.002.180.050.210.42
33Timo Meier NJD · RNJDRL2PP217.378300.350.300.65-9.80.160.003.230.561.700.69
34Valeri Nichushkin CBJ · RCBJRL1PP218.36731.60.350.430.78+8.30.110.012.360.030.890.41
35Anthony Mantha NJD · RNJDRL3PP214.472320.330.360.70+7.80.150.001.740.160.690.48
36Owen Tippett PHI · RPHIRL2PP215.97727.60.330.300.63-5.90.100.022.650.121.890.66
37Jack Quinn BUF · RBUFRL1PP217.673250.260.390.65-1.40.150.002.210.040.630.33
38Ryan Leonard WSH · RWSHRL3PP214.66921.70.300.390.68+0.20.190.002.310.081.660.38
39Claude Giroux OTT · ROTTRL3PP215.67138.70.200.450.65+7.50.190.011.726.710.750.37
40Josh Doan BUF · RBUFRL2PP115.97424.70.290.340.63-1.60.180.002.050.170.950.38
41Alex Laferriere LAK · RLAKRL2PP217.28024.90.270.300.57+4.20.070.022.521.762.600.56
42Matt Coronato CGY · RCGYRL1PP118.27123.90.290.350.63-11.10.210.002.460.850.350.35
43Jordan Eberle SEA · RSEARL1PP118.36736.40.290.370.66+1.30.180.001.930.190.590.50
44Jonathan Marchessault NSH · RNSHRL1PP217.97135.80.260.370.63-16.40.180.002.330.251.120.21
45Conor Garland CBJ · RCBJRL2PP216.77930.60.210.330.54-12.20.140.011.950.140.620.50
46Roman Kantserov CHI · RCHIRL3PP213.7560.390.320.71+0.00.090.003.410.001.610.55
47Troy Terry ANA · RANAR4629.10.310.570.88+3.30.180.042.510.090.080.32
48Simon Holmstrom NYI · RNYIRL2PP216.17525.40.240.300.54+2.60.060.061.260.040.260.60
49Collin Graf SJS · RSJSRL216.272240.240.310.55+1.50.040.041.470.091.030.57
50Kaapo Kakko SEA · RSEARL2PP215.16725.60.190.390.58+7.30.110.001.350.350.570.26
51Oliver Bjorkstrand NYR · RNYRRL3PP213.57831.50.220.290.51-8.30.170.001.740.080.990.43
52Tyson Foerster PHI · RPHIRL2PP216.57024.70.340.200.54+3.00.140.002.000.021.000.72
53Ryan Hartman MIN · RMINRL1PP217.174320.260.260.52-1.50.090.002.145.730.901.03
54Braeden Bowman VGK · RVGKRL2PP214.55923.30.240.380.62-5.50.090.001.530.060.420.46
55Egor Chinakhov PIT · RPITRL3PP214.86425.70.270.290.56-2.40.090.001.960.040.810.43
56Seth Jarvis CAR · RCARR3724.70.450.510.96+3.50.300.083.110.641.190.49
57Connor Brown NJD · RNJDRL117.77632.70.200.290.49+0.70.070.021.460.140.320.46
58Mackie Samoskevich SEA · RSEARL3PP214.37223.90.210.260.48-2.70.140.002.070.051.780.44
59Zachary Bolduc MTL · RMTLRL3PP214.27323.60.220.250.47+0.60.100.001.520.201.950.53
60Ilya Mikheyev TBL · RTBLRL315.877320.220.220.44+1.90.010.031.600.030.430.28
61Bobby Brink MIN · RMINRL1PP215.96925.20.210.300.50-4.70.090.001.500.241.160.51
62Danila Yurov MIN · RMINRL2PP215.07322.80.200.250.44-2.70.040.001.294.020.880.57
63Arseny Gritsyuk NJD · RNJDRL413.06825.50.190.280.47-1.10.080.002.210.060.900.33
64Gabe Perreault NYR · RNYRRL1PP216.85321.40.250.330.58-0.10.130.001.670.100.560.46
65Matthew Wood NSH · RNSHRL1PP215.96621.60.230.220.46-1.10.120.021.661.130.770.39
66Porter Martone PHI · RPHIRL4PP114.1550.270.270.55+0.00.180.002.360.002.110.55
67Vasily Podkolzin EDM · REDMRL2PP215.07525.30.190.210.40+7.10.030.001.630.232.820.62
68Michael Amadio OTT · ROTTRL216.17630.40.160.230.39+9.10.010.011.160.301.260.59
69Matvei Gridin CGY · RCGYRL4PP114.34820.60.190.390.58-4.30.260.002.090.080.400.66
70Justin Brazeau PIT · RPITRL412.66528.70.220.230.44+0.80.060.001.480.021.490.61
71Frank Vatrano ANA · RANARL3PP213.67532.60.210.200.41-14.90.060.012.300.141.760.69
72Anthony Beauvillier WSH · RWSHRL314.77729.30.180.150.33+3.20.020.011.810.431.250.54
73Brendan Gallagher VAN · RVANRL3PP213.37034.40.180.190.36-2.80.060.001.600.071.150.33
74Corey Perry LAK · RLAKR5341.40.220.230.45+0.80.140.001.500.120.460.30
75Dalibor Dvorsky STL · RSTLRL4PP212.86621.30.180.150.34-2.10.080.001.574.721.100.38
76Mathieu Olivier CBJ · RCBJRL313.76529.60.200.160.36+4.40.000.011.390.083.400.75
77Nino Niederreiter WPG · RWPGRL3PP213.56534.10.170.190.36-0.20.080.001.570.131.390.39
78Ethen Frank WSH · RWSHRL411.46228.70.170.170.35+3.30.050.001.370.010.820.67
79Maxim Shabanov MIN · RMINR52260.130.270.40-1.60.100.001.280.000.670.41
80Ville Koivunen PIT · RPITRL3PP214.05523.30.120.250.37-3.70.090.001.180.060.220.44
81Joel Armia LAK · RLAKRL413.26633.30.160.180.33+0.20.020.051.330.331.040.54
82Jonatan Berggren STL · RSTLRL314.45726.20.140.230.37-4.60.060.001.160.060.690.29
83Pontus Holmberg TBL · RTBLRL312.87027.60.140.160.29+1.70.000.001.190.850.880.54
84Josh Anderson MTL · RMTLRL412.47232.40.160.120.29-3.90.000.031.290.321.890.55
85Jonathan Lekkerimäki VAN · RVANR420.290.170.45+0.00.050.002.480.001.380.55
86Adam Gaudette SJS · RSJSRL411.465300.210.100.31-2.30.060.001.312.070.810.45
87Kailer Yamamoto UTA · RUTARL312.361280.170.150.32+6.40.020.001.010.360.800.35
88Taylor Raddysh NYR · RNYRRL411.67128.60.110.180.28-0.80.020.011.010.080.780.50
89Keegan Kolesar DET · RDETRL411.37929.50.100.150.25-6.50.000.010.910.123.190.53
90Stefan Noesen NJD · RNJDRL3PP212.65433.60.180.170.35-6.50.100.001.670.491.310.35
91Adam Klapka CGY · RCGYRL312.171260.090.140.23-5.10.020.001.060.163.620.64
92Alexander Zharovsky MTL · RMTLR320.190.280.47+0.00.060.002.410.001.500.56
93Tyler Boucher OTT · ROTTR450.160.180.33+0.00.040.000.930.001.840.56
94Justin Danforth BUF · RBUFR5933.50.120.150.27-5.50.020.011.324.461.730.73
95Kasperi Kapanen EDM · REDMRL314.15630.20.130.170.30-2.50.010.001.370.231.520.35
96Nikita Grebenkin PHI · RPHIRL311.95623.40.070.170.24-2.70.000.000.730.081.570.36
97Justin Carbonneau STL · RSTLR350.230.140.37+0.00.060.002.030.001.690.54
98Victor Eklund NYI · RNYIR330.090.300.39+0.00.060.001.150.001.420.55
99Terik Parascak WSH · RWSHR350.140.230.37+0.00.060.001.830.001.600.54
100Lenni Hameenaho NJD · RNJDRL411.54521.90.100.190.29-0.90.000.001.710.000.680.49
101Jagger Firkus SEA · RSEAR290.140.280.41+0.00.030.001.760.001.340.55
102Stiven Sardarian CAR · RCARR270.110.330.44+0.00.040.001.410.001.560.56
103Aiden Fink NSH · RNSHR290.100.310.41+0.00.030.001.310.001.520.55
104Michael Brandsegg-Nygård DET · RDETR320.160.220.38+0.00.030.001.340.001.500.56
105Cruz Lucius PIT · RPITR290.140.280.41+0.00.030.001.760.001.410.55
106Easton Cowan TOR · RTORRL2PP215.1270.190.230.42+0.00.040.001.410.001.590.56
107Nikita Klepov ANA · RANAR290.140.240.38+0.00.030.001.760.001.480.55
108Mikhail Ilyin PIT · RPITR250.160.280.44+0.00.040.002.040.001.320.56
109Mathieu Joseph EDM · REDMR5929.60.060.140.20-5.10.000.020.960.242.050.63
110Isak Rosen WPG · RWPGRL3PP212.54523.50.130.110.24-2.20.040.001.200.030.500.51
111Alexey Toropchenko STL · RSTLR6927.30.060.110.17-5.20.000.011.090.052.210.76
112Alexander Holtz VGK · RVGKRL410.94524.70.080.130.22-2.00.010.001.260.090.850.34
113Ryker Lee NSH · RNSHR230.170.220.39+0.00.040.001.520.001.520.57
114Fabian Lysell COL · RCOLR250.160.200.36+0.00.040.002.040.001.600.56
115Emil Hemming DAL · RDALR250.160.200.36+0.00.040.001.560.001.400.56
116Maxim Tsyplakov CGY · RCGYR58280.070.150.22-5.90.010.001.180.161.730.33
117Vaclav Nestrasil CHI · RCHIR220.140.230.36+0.00.050.001.730.001.320.55
118Cole Smith CHI · RCHIR6730.90.080.070.15-5.50.000.011.040.102.600.34
119Carl Grundstrom PHI · RPHIRL312.55528.80.110.070.18-0.70.000.011.380.112.900.43
120Liam Ruck PIT · RPITR200.150.200.35+0.00.050.001.300.001.450.55
121Sasha Pastujov MTL · RMTLR190.160.210.37+0.00.050.002.000.001.370.53
122Felix Unger Sorum CAR · RCARR190.110.260.37+0.00.050.000.890.001.320.53
123Sam Colangelo ANA · RANAR4124.80.120.040.16-2.30.030.001.180.121.680.41
124Logan O'Connor COL · RCOLR4630.10.080.100.17-0.10.000.011.090.250.920.53
125Jaroslav Chmelar NYR · RNYRRL49.34123.20.070.080.15-0.60.000.001.080.001.820.54
126Elton Hermansson LAK · RLAKR180.170.170.33+0.00.060.001.440.001.440.56
127Colby Barlow WPG · RWPGR270.110.110.22+0.00.040.000.740.001.330.56
128Taylor Ward LAK · RLAKRL49.24428.50.060.070.13+0.00.010.001.130.121.090.35
129Filip Mesar MTL · RMTLR200.100.150.25+0.00.050.001.300.001.350.55
130Chase Stillman DET · RDETR200.100.150.25+0.00.050.001.300.002.100.55
131Arttu Hyry DAL · RDALR3425.50.060.060.13+0.30.000.021.245.751.500.41
132Cole Schwindt FLA · RFLARL49.74125.40.050.080.12+1.10.000.000.882.951.220.41
133Jonas Lagerberg Hoen OTT · ROTTR140.290.000.29+0.00.000.002.500.001.430.57
134Garnet Hathaway FLA · RFLAR6334.90.060.060.12-2.30.000.000.830.193.700.86
135Carter Mazur DET · RDETR120.170.080.25+0.00.000.001.170.001.580.58
136Gleb Pugachyov MTL · RMTLR90.110.220.33+0.00.000.001.440.001.670.56
137Xavier Bourgault OTT · ROTTR140.070.140.21+0.00.000.001.430.001.430.57
138Mitchell Chaffee NYI · RNYIR3328.70.080.050.13-1.10.020.000.970.162.240.41
139Oskar Pettersson OTT · ROTTR120.000.170.17+0.00.000.000.250.001.170.58
140Nikita Chibrikov WPG · RWPGR1223.60.080.080.17+0.00.000.001.000.001.420.58
141Scott Sabourin TBL · RTBLRL48.13334.20.020.040.05+0.10.000.000.490.002.310.44
142Jonas Rondbjerg VGK · RVGKR3127.50.010.030.05-3.60.010.001.150.050.230.32
143Zack MacEwen TOR · RTORR3630.20.020.010.03-1.60.000.001.070.322.190.36
144Oskar Olausson COL · RCOLR70.000.140.14+0.00.000.000.290.001.430.57
145Ivan Vorobyov STL · RSTLR40.000.250.25+0.00.000.000.500.001.250.50
146Hayden Hodgson OTT · ROTTR330.60.000.000.00+0.00.000.000.670.002.000.67
147Judd Caulfield ANA · RANAR30.000.000.00+0.00.000.000.000.001.330.67