Auston Matthews

CTOR · age 29 · 2026-27 · drafted 2016 by TOR, round 1, #1 overallCompare with…

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2026-27 projection

Pts

PPP

287

SOG

Hits

Blk

2026-27 outlook · floor / expected / ceiling

Points

Floor 45Expected 81Ceiling 115

Goals

Floor 24Expected 41Ceiling 57

Assists

Floor 20Expected 39Ceiling 58

What moves the range:

Shooting %: expected 14.4% — a hot/cold season swings goals by ±7.6 (pure luck).
Ice time / role: ±7% (line/PP promotion vs demotion) — line & power-play promotion is the biggest upside lever.
Games played: floor assumes 59 (injury), ceiling 80 (full health) vs 74 expected.
Linemates: assist swing of ±11.1 tracks how well his linemates finish his setups.

NHL seasons

Basic Everything

		Scoring						Ice time			Physical
Season	GP	G	A	P	SOG	SH%	PPP	TOI	PP TOI	PP%	HIT	BLK	PIM	+/-
2026-27	2	0	0	0	4	0.0	0	21:30	4:48	65	1	1	0	-2
2025-26	60	27	26	53	227	11.9	12	20:48	2:42	62	42	81	18	-4
2024-25	67	33	45	78	261	12.6	25	20:30	3:00	—	45	89	20	11
2023-24	81	69	38	107	369	18.7	29	21:00	3:24	—	89	93	20	31
2022-23	74	40	45	85	327	12.2	28	20:18	3:36	—	78	92	20	31
2021-22	73	60	46	106	348	17.2		—	—	—	—	—	18	20
2020-21	52	41	25	66	222	18.5		—	—	—	—	—	10	21
2019-20	70	47	33	80	290	16.2		—	—	—	—	—	8	19
2018-19	68	37	36	73	251	14.7		—	—	—	—	—	12	-9
2017-18	62	34	29	63	187	18.2		—	—	—	—	—	12	25
2016-17	82	40	29	69	279	14.3		—	—	—	—	—	14	2

Expected goals from the shot feed, which starts in 2022-23. Earlier seasons are blank because the data does not exist, not because he had none. G−xG is goals minus expected: how much better or worse he finished than the chances he took.

Other leagues

League	Season	GP	G	A	P	PIM
USHL	2014-15	24	20	28	48	10
USHL	2013-14	20	10	10	20	4