Matthew Tkachuk
L2026-27 projection
68
GP
0.42
G
0.74
A
1.16
Pts
0.45
PPP
3.06
SOG
1.28
Hits
0.27
Blk
2026-27 outlook · floor / expected / ceiling
Points
Floor 42Expected 79Ceiling 116
Goals
Floor 16Expected 29Ceiling 41
Assists
Floor 26Expected 51Ceiling 76
What moves the range:
- Shooting %: expected 12.9% — a hot/cold season swings goals by ±6.2 (pure luck).
- Ice time / role: ±7% (line/PP promotion vs demotion) — line & power-play promotion is the biggest upside lever.
- Games played: floor assumes 54 (injury), ceiling 74 (full health) vs 68 expected.
- Linemates: assist swing of ±14.2 tracks how well his linemates finish his setups.