Matthew Tkachuk

LFLA · age 28 · 2026-27 · drafted 2016 by CGY, round 1, #6 overallCompare with…

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2026-27 projection

0.43

0.75

1.18

Pts

0.45

PPP

3.06

SOG

1.28

Hits

0.27

Blk

2026-27 outlook · floor / expected / ceiling

Points

Floor 41Expected 77Ceiling 113

Goals

Floor 16Expected 28Ceiling 40

Assists

Floor 25Expected 49Ceiling 73

What moves the range:

Shooting %: expected 14.1% — a hot/cold season swings goals by ±6.3 (pure luck).
Ice time / role: ±7% (line/PP promotion vs demotion) — line & power-play promotion is the biggest upside lever.
Games played: floor assumes 52 (injury), ceiling 71 (full health) vs 65 expected.
Linemates: assist swing of ±13.7 tracks how well his linemates finish his setups.

NHL seasons

Basic Everything

		Scoring						Ice time			Physical
Season	GP	G	A	P	SOG	SH%	PPP	TOI	PP TOI	PP%	HIT	BLK	PIM	+/-
2026-27	2	1	0	1	4	25.0	0	20:54	8:12	72	3	1	0	0
2025-26	31	13	21	34	88	14.8	13	18:18	3:30	72	29	7	48	-6
2024-25	52	22	35	57	156	14.1	23	18:12	3:18	—	84	12	54	-3
2023-24	80	26	62	88	280	9.3	32	18:36	4:00	—	151	28	88	19
2022-23	79	40	69	109	322	12.4	36	20:24	4:24	—	68	31	123	29
2021-22	82	42	62	104	253	16.6		—	—	—	—	—	68	57
2020-21	56	16	27	43	151	10.6		—	—	—	—	—	55	6
2019-20	69	23	38	61	188	12.2		—	—	—	—	—	74	-5
2018-19	80	34	43	77	207	16.4		—	—	—	—	—	62	14
2017-18	68	24	25	49	188	12.8		—	—	—	—	—	61	-1
2016-17	76	13	35	48	142	9.2		—	—	—	—	—	105	14

Expected goals from the shot feed, which starts in 2022-23. Earlier seasons are blank because the data does not exist, not because he had none. G−xG is goals minus expected: how much better or worse he finished than the chances he took.

Other leagues

League	Season	GP	G	A	P	PIM
USHL	2014-15	24	13	20	33	70
USHL	2013-14	33	5	12	17	18