Matthew Tkachuk
L2026-27 projection
68
GP
29
G
51
A
79
Pts
30
PPP
208
SOG
87
Hits
18
Blk
2026-27 outlook · floor / expected / ceiling
Points
Floor 42Expected 79Ceiling 116
Goals
Floor 16Expected 29Ceiling 41
Assists
Floor 26Expected 51Ceiling 76
What moves the range:
- Shooting %: expected 12.9% — a hot/cold season swings goals by ±6.2 (pure luck).
- Ice time / role: ±7% (line/PP promotion vs demotion) — line & power-play promotion is the biggest upside lever.
- Games played: floor assumes 54 (injury), ceiling 74 (full health) vs 68 expected.
- Linemates: assist swing of ±14.2 tracks how well his linemates finish his setups.
NHL seasons
| Season | GP | G | A | P | SOG | PPP | PIM | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 31 | 13 | 21 | 34 | 88 | 13 | 48 | -6 |
| 2024-25 | 52 | 22 | 35 | 57 | 156 | 23 | 54 | -3 |
| 2023-24 | 80 | 26 | 62 | 88 | 280 | 32 | 88 | 19 |
| 2022-23 | 79 | 40 | 69 | 109 | 322 | 36 | 123 | 29 |
| 2021-22 | 82 | 42 | 62 | 104 | 253 | 68 | 57 | |
| 2020-21 | 56 | 16 | 27 | 43 | 151 | 55 | 6 | |
| 2019-20 | 69 | 23 | 38 | 61 | 188 | 74 | -5 | |
| 2018-19 | 80 | 34 | 43 | 77 | 207 | 62 | 14 | |
| 2017-18 | 68 | 24 | 25 | 49 | 188 | 61 | -1 | |
| 2016-17 | 76 | 13 | 35 | 48 | 142 | 105 | 14 |