Mathew Barzal
CProbable for start of season2026-27 projection
71
GP
18
G
48
A
66
Pts
18
PPP
164
SOG
31
Hits
45
Blk
2026-27 outlook · floor / expected / ceiling
Points
Floor 34Expected 66Ceiling 97
Goals
Floor 9Expected 18Ceiling 27
Assists
Floor 25Expected 48Ceiling 71
What moves the range:
- Shooting %: expected 10.1% — a hot/cold season swings goals by ±4.9 (pure luck).
- Ice time / role: ±7% (line/PP promotion vs demotion) — line & power-play promotion is the biggest upside lever.
- Games played: floor assumes 57 (injury), ceiling 77 (full health) vs 71 expected.
- Linemates: assist swing of ±13.4 tracks how well his linemates finish his setups.