Draft Value vs ADP · 2026-27

Two ways the market can be wrong about a player. Level — we rank him well ahead of or behind where he is drafted. Direction — he is moving against his own last season and his price has not moved with him.

my league is

pick the categories your league counts and the tiers re-score for them

Value and rank computed for Banger — peripheral-heavy: HIT/BLK 2x, PIM 1.5x, SOG 1.2x — scoring still counts.

💎 Undervalued · we rank them ahead of their price

#	Player	Tm	Pos	Our rank	ADP	Gap	Trend	z-value
1	Mark Kastelic BOS · C	BOS	C	13	290.4	+277.4	-1.3	+9.6
2	Mathieu Olivier CBJ · R	CBJ	R	9	284.8	+275.8	-1.4	+10.3
3	Adam Klapka CGY · R	CGY	R	26	292.2	+266.2	-1.4	+8.2
4	Radko Gudas FLA · D	FLA	D	19	281.4	+262.4	+0.5	+8.8
5	Jack McBain UTA · C	UTA	C	25	285.2	+260.2	-0.9	+8.3
6	A.J. Greer ANA · L	ANA	L	37	292.6	+255.6	-1.6	+6.9
7	Jeremy Lauzon VGK · D	VGK	D	21	275	+254.0	-0.4	+8.7
8	Tanner Jeannot BOS · L	BOS	L	44	293.2	+249.2	+0.5	+6.5
9	Ben Chiarot DET · D	DET	D	40	286.9	+246.9	-1.7	+6.8
10	Yakov Trenin MIN · C	MIN	C	32	276.2	+244.2	-1.7	+7.3
11	Michael McCarron MIN · C	MIN	C	53	291.7	+238.7	-1.4	+6.2
12	Alexander Romanov NYI · D	NYI	D	57	286.8	+229.8	—	+6.0
13	Simon Benoit PHI · D	PHI	D	65	292.3	+227.3	+0.5	+5.7
14	Brenden Dillon NJD · D	NJD	D	63	289.2	+226.2	-1.1	+5.7
15	Nikita Zadorov BOS · D	BOS	D	4	229.4	+225.4	-1.0	+13.5
16	Erik Cernak TBL · D	TBL	D	70	293.2	+223.2	-1.6	+5.3
17	Mario Ferraro WPG · D	WPG	D	78	291.5	+213.5	-0.1	+5.0
18	Vasily Podkolzin EDM · R	EDM	R	52	264.8	+212.8	-1.3	+6.3
19	Jake Middleton CGY · D	CGY	D	86	292.9	+206.9	+0.4	+4.6
20	Braden Schneider NYR · D	NYR	D	85	289.7	+204.7	-0.2	+4.6
21	Nick Seeler PHI · D	PHI	D	93	291.8	+198.8	+0.6	+4.3
22	Keegan Kolesar DET · R	DET	R	95	292.2	+197.2	-0.2	+4.3
23	Will Cuylle NYR · L	NYR	L	7	203.7	+196.7	-1.0	+11.6
24	Beck Malenstyn BUF · L	BUF	L	99	292.5	+193.5	-1.5	+4.2
25	Brayden Schenn NYI · C	NYI	C	84	276.2	+192.2	-0.5	+4.6
26	Marcus Foligno MIN · L	MIN	L	101	292.6	+191.6	-1.7	+4.1
27	Neal Pionk WPG · D	WPG	D	71	260.1	+189.1	-0.7	+5.3
28	Eeli Tolvanen NYR · R	NYR	R	68	253.3	+185.3	-0.3	+5.3
29	Kiefer Sherwood SJS · L	SJS	L	8	191.6	+183.6	-1.9	+10.5
30	Jake McCabe TOR · D	TOR	D	45	224.3	+179.3	-0.9	+6.4
31	Frank Vatrano ANA · R	ANA	R	96	275.3	+179.3	+3.2	+4.2
32	Connor Murphy EDM · D	EDM	D	114	293.1	+179.1	+0.3	+3.8
33	Josh Manson COL · D	COL	D	87	258.4	+171.4	-1.4	+4.5
34	Charle-Edouard D'Astous TBL · D	TBL	D	59	229.8	+170.8	-1.5	+5.9
35	Roman Kantserov CHI · R	CHI	R	89	258.7	+169.7	—	+4.5
36	Peyton Krebs BUF · C	BUF	C	123	291.1	+168.1	-1.9	+3.6
37	Adam Larsson SEA · D	SEA	D	90	254.4	+164.4	-0.9	+4.4
38	Garnet Hathaway FLA · R	FLA	R	130	292.4	+162.4	+0.3	+3.3
39	Brandon Duhaime TOR · L	TOR	L	131	292.4	+161.4	+0.4	+3.3
40	Brayden McNabb VGK · D	VGK	D	117	278	+161.0	-1.2	+3.7

⚠ Overvalued · going earlier than the projection supports

#	Player	Tm	Pos	Our rank	ADP	Gap	Trend	z-value
1	Michael Misa SJS · C	SJS	C	563	207.8	-355.2	+1.7	-6.3
2	John Marino UTA · D	UTA	D	556	203.2	-352.8	+0.6	-5.7
3	Igor Chernyshov SJS · L	SJS	L	544	210.5	-333.5	+1.8	-5.3
4	Andrei Kuzmenko PIT · L	PIT	L	593	277.6	-315.4	-1.0	-8.3
5	Tyler Seguin DAL · C	DAL	C	582	267.2	-314.8	+1.3	-7.3
6	Egor Chinakhov PIT · R	PIT	R	509	195.5	-313.5	+0.3	-4.5
7	Arshdeep Bains VAN · L	VAN	L	599	291.9	-307.1	+0.4	-9.6
8	Isak Rosen WPG · R	WPG	R	598	292.5	-305.5	+0.8	-9.0
9	Matt Duchene DAL · C	DAL	C	485	179.6	-305.4	+0.1	-3.8
10	Alexander Holtz VGK · R	VGK	R	597	292.4	-304.6	-1.1	-9.0
11	Gabe Perreault NYR · R	NYR	R	520	217.2	-302.8	+1.2	-4.7
12	Stephen Halliday OTT · C	OTT	C	595	292.8	-302.2	+1.2	-8.6
13	Erik Gustafsson LAK · D	LAK	D	590	292.1	-297.9	—	-8.0
14	Zayne Parekh CGY · D	CGY	D	494	197	-297.0	+2.6	-4.0
15	Cody Glass NJD · C	NJD	C	589	292.5	-296.5	-1.1	-7.8
16	Nils Hoglander NSH · L	NSH	L	588	292.4	-295.6	+1.2	-7.7
17	Nico Sturm MIN · C	MIN	C	587	292.6	-294.4	+0.4	-7.7
18	Sam Colangelo ANA · R	ANA	R	584	292.6	-291.4	—	-7.4
19	Patrick Kane CHI · R	CHI	R	457	166.6	-290.4	-0.3	-3.4
20	Daniil But UTA · L	UTA	L	583	292.6	-290.4	+1.9	-7.4
21	Jonatan Berggren STL · R	STL	R	581	292.6	-288.4	-0.6	-7.1
22	Adam Edstrom NSH · C	NSH	C	580	291.9	-288.1	+0.6	-7.0
23	Cam Fowler STL · D	STL	D	525	237.5	-287.5	+0.8	-4.8
24	Ville Koivunen PIT · R	PIT	R	578	292.6	-285.4	+2.6	-6.9
25	Owen Michaels EDM · R	EDM	R	577	291.9	-285.1	—	-6.9
26	Maxim Shabanov MIN · R	MIN	R	574	289.8	-284.2	+1.5	-6.8
27	Michael Carcone UTA · L	UTA	L	576	292.9	-283.1	-0.9	-6.9
28	Jack Roslovic TOR · C	TOR	C	526	243.2	-282.8	-2.4	-4.8
29	Joel Kiviranta DAL · L	DAL	L	575	292.6	-282.4	+0.8	-6.9
30	Declan Chisholm NJD · D	NJD	D	573	292.6	-280.4	+1.2	-6.8
31	Kailer Yamamoto UTA · R	UTA	R	572	292.4	-279.6	-0.5	-6.7
32	Conor Geekie TBL · C	TBL	C	571	292.8	-278.2	—	-6.7
33	Anthony Duclair NYI · L	NYI	L	570	292.4	-277.6	-0.2	-6.7
34	Hendrix Lapierre PIT · C	PIT	C	569	292.6	-276.4	+0.4	-6.7
35	Lars Eller FLA · C	FLA	C	568	292.5	-275.5	+0.7	-6.5
36	Cole Koepke WPG · L	WPG	L	566	292.5	-273.5	-0.6	-6.5
37	Dominic James TBL · C	TBL	C	565	292.5	-272.5	+0.9	-6.5
38	Matvei Gridin CGY · R	CGY	R	541	269.6	-271.4	+1.7	-5.3
39	Artemi Panarin LAK · L	LAK	L	317	46.9	-270.1	-0.0	-0.7
40	Victor Olofsson VGK · L	VGK	L	562	292.5	-269.5	+0.4	-6.2

📈 Rising, and not yet repriced · going after pick 100

Projected to gain on last season in the categories this league counts, and still available late. A riser the room already knows about is priced as one.

#	Player	Tm	Pos	Age	ADP	G+A	Biggest mover	Move
1	Isaac Howard EDM · L	EDM	L	22	292.8	5 → 25	SOG 1.24 → 2.93	+9.6
2	Frank Vatrano ANA · R	ANA	R	32	275.3	9 → 28	SOG 1.58 → 2.1	+3.2
3	Maxim Tsyplakov CGY · R	CGY	R	28	292.9	4 → 11	PIM 0.12 → 0.3	+2.8
4	Matt Rempe NYR · C	NYR	C	24	291.9	1 → 2	PIM 0.42 → 0.91	+2.8
5	Zayne Parekh CGY · D	CGY	D	20	197	9 → 17	BLK 0.81 → 1.03	+2.6
6	Ville Koivunen PIT · R	PIT	R	23	292.6	7 → 24	G 0.05 → 0.14	+2.6
7	Victor Hedman TBL · D	TBL	D	35	114.1	17 → 46	G 0.03 → 0.12	+2.6
8	Pierre-Luc Dubois WSH · C	WSH	C	28	249.2	19 → 51	PIM 0.66 → 0.81	+2.4
9	Jake Walman EDM · D	EDM	D	30	198.4	20 → 26	PIM 0.19 → 0.39	+2.3
10	Jordan Greenway CHI · L	CHI	L	29	292.5	6 → 6	HIT 1.43 → 1.81	+2.3
11	Beckett Sennecke ANA · R	ANA	R	20	125	60 → 79	G 0.28 → 0.41	+2.3
12	Ivan Demidov MTL · R	MTL	R	20	127	62 → 75	SOG 1.55 → 1.88	+2.0
13	Martin Pospisil CGY · C	CGY	C	26	293	3 → 9	PIM 0.77 → 0.96	+2.0
14	Braeden Bowman VGK · R	VGK	R	23	292.9	26 → 40	G 0.15 → 0.25	+2.0
15	Paul Cotter VAN · L	VAN	L	26	293	15 → 14	PIM 0.24 → 0.4	+1.9
16	Emmitt Finnie DET · L	DET	L	21	291.3	30 → 40	G 0.16 → 0.24	+1.9
17	Daniil But UTA · L	UTA	L	21	292.6	7 → 16	G 0.1 → 0.19	+1.9
18	Jimmy Snuggerud STL · R	STL	R	22	163.7	51 → 68	G 0.3 → 0.37	+1.8
19	J.T. Miller NYR · C	NYR	C	33	112.3	53 → 68	PIM 0.49 → 0.57	+1.8
20	Igor Chernyshov SJS · L	SJS	L	20	210.5	19 → 37	PIM 0.21 → 0.33	+1.8
21	Jordan Kyrou WSH · R	WSH	R	28	137.3	46 → 59	G 0.25 → 0.33	+1.8
22	Michael Rasmussen DET · C	DET	C	27	292.4	14 → 18	HIT 1 → 1.32	+1.7
23	Matvei Gridin CGY · R	CGY	R	20	269.6	20 → 32	PIM 0.05 → 0.22	+1.7
24	Ben Kindel PIT · C	PIT	C	19	288.3	35 → 46	G 0.22 → 0.3	+1.7
25	Michael Misa SJS · C	SJS	C	19	207.8	21 → 31	SOG 1.29 → 1.61	+1.7
26	John Tavares TOR · C	TOR	C	36	115.7	71 → 70	G 0.38 → 0.43	+1.6
27	Nazem Kadri COL · C	COL	C	36	144.6	50 → 57	G 0.21 → 0.32	+1.6
28	Ryan Greene CHI · C	CHI	C	22	292.6	29 → 37	G 0.15 → 0.21	+1.6
29	Samuel Girard PIT · D	PIT	D	28	292.7	19 → 22	BLK 0.97 → 1.2	+1.5
30	Sam Dickinson SJS · D	SJS	D	20	279.7	14 → 19	BLK 0.97 → 1.08	+1.5
31	Josh Norris BUF · C	BUF	C	27	226.4	34 → 44	HIT 0.55 → 1.2	+1.5
32	Maxim Shabanov MIN · R	MIN	R	26	289.8	18 → 24	PIM 0.05 → 0.19	+1.5
33	Oliver Moore CHI · C	CHI	C	21	292.7	19 → 27	SOG 1.12 → 1.35	+1.5
34	Alex Vlasic CHI · D	CHI	D	25	293	21 → 23	BLK 1.47 → 1.6	+1.5
35	Nino Niederreiter WPG · R	WPG	R	34	292.8	19 → 25	HIT 1.15 → 1.39	+1.5
36	Phillip Danault MTL · C	MTL	C	33	292.1	17 → 29	G 0.08 → 0.14	+1.4
37	Seth Jones FLA · D	FLA	D	32	145.6	32 → 39	BLK 1.17 → 1.4	+1.4
38	Drew Helleson ANA · D	ANA	D	25	292.3	15 → 10	PIM 0.33 → 0.48	+1.4
39	Ross Colton NSH · L	NSH	L	30	292.9	24 → 31	G 0.12 → 0.21	+1.4
40	Berkly Catton SEA · C	SEA	C	20	292.5	17 → 27	G 0.11 → 0.18	+1.4

📉 Slipping, and still being paid for · going inside pick 100

Projected to give back ground and still drafted early. This is a don't-pay-last-year's-price list, not a don't-draft list.

#	Player	Tm	Pos	Age	ADP	G+A	Biggest mover	Move
1	Darren Raddysh TOR · D	TOR	D	30	65.1	70 → 58	PIM 0.99 → 0.69	-4.6
2	Steven Stamkos NSH · C	NSH	C	36	95.5	66 → 54	G 0.51 → 0.38	-1.9
3	Mika Zibanejad NYR · C	NYR	C	33	66.9	78 → 72	HIT 1.3 → 1.01	-1.8
4	Brock Faber MIN · D	MIN	D	24	93.3	51 → 42	BLK 1.85 → 1.73	-1.4
5	Jakob Chychrun WSH · D	WSH	D	28	48.1	60 → 51	G 0.33 → 0.24	-1.4
6	Alex Tuch WSH · R	WSH	R	30	71	66 → 62	G 0.42 → 0.35	-1.3
7	Mikko Rantanen DAL · R	DAL	R	29	36.3	77 → 99	PIM 1.45 → 1.12	-1.3
8	Adrian Kempe LAK · R	LAK	R	30	59.9	73 → 71	G 0.44 → 0.39	-1.1
9	Jason Robertson DAL · L	DAL	L	27	12	96 → 96	G 0.55 → 0.49	-1.0
10	MacKenzie Weegar UTA · D	UTA	D	32	90.5	28 → 34	PIM 1.11 → 0.85	-1.0
11	Sidney Crosby PIT · C	PIT	C	39	53.3	74 → 71	PIM 0.65 → 0.55	-0.9
12	Martin Necas COL · R	COL	R	27	24.3	100 → 97	G 0.49 → 0.4	-0.9
13	Jake Guentzel TBL · C	TBL	C	32	31.2	88 → 87	PIM 0.75 → 0.6	-0.9
14	Nikita Kucherov TBL · R	TBL	R	33	3.9	130 → 128	G 0.58 → 0.48	-0.9
15	Tage Thompson BUF · C	BUF	C	28	27.8	81 → 76	G 0.49 → 0.45	-0.8
16	David Pastrnak BOS · R	BOS	R	30	7.9	100 → 111	PIM 0.94 → 0.76	-0.8
17	Dylan Larkin DET · C	DET	C	30	83	67 → 74	PIM 0.65 → 0.59	-0.7
18	Cutter Gauthier ANA · L	ANA	L	22	45.4	69 → 68	G 0.54 → 0.44	-0.5
19	Zach Hyman EDM · L	EDM	L	34	75.8	52 → 62	HIT 0.97 → 0.91	-0.5
20	Cole Caufield MTL · R	MTL	R	25	18.9	88 → 79	G 0.63 → 0.51	-0.5
21	Wyatt Johnston DAL · C	DAL	C	23	29.5	86 → 89	SOG 2.51 → 2.73	-0.5
22	Noah Dobson MTL · D	MTL	D	26	76.9	47 → 48	BLK 2.35 → 2.14	-0.4
23	Pavel Dorofeyev NYR · R	NYR	R	25	96.9	64 → 56	G 0.45 → 0.39	-0.4
24	John Carlson TBL · D	TBL	D	36	69.4	60 → 54	BLK 1.49 → 1.58	-0.3
25	Erik Karlsson PIT · D	PIT	D	36	81.3	66 → 59	BLK 0.85 → 0.95	-0.3
26	Nick Suzuki MTL · C	MTL	C	27	20.1	101 → 104	PIM 0.34 → 0.3	-0.2
27	Alex Ovechkin WSH · L	WSH	L	41	81.5	64 → 50	SOG 2.98 → 2.82	-0.2
28	Nathan MacKinnon COL · C	COL	C	31	1.7	127 → 130	G 0.66 → 0.57	-0.2
29	Josh Morrissey WPG · D	WPG	D	31	79.5	55 → 58	G 0.18 → 0.14	-0.2
30	Connor McDavid EDM · C	EDM	C	29	1.9	138 → 140	SOG 3.73 → 3.5	-0.2
31	Matt Boldy MIN · L	MIN	L	25	15.2	85 → 89	G 0.55 → 0.48	-0.2
32	Alex DeBrincat DET · R	DET	R	28	43.2	85 → 82	SOG 3.5 → 3.25	-0.2
33	Drake Batherson OTT · R	OTT	R	28	92.3	71 → 69	G 0.42 → 0.35	-0.1
34	Charlie McAvoy BOS · D	BOS	D	28	95.5	61 → 57	HIT 1.14 → 1.36	-0.1
35	Brandon Hagel TBL · L	TBL	L	28	54.6	74 → 89	SOG 3.01 → 2.83	-0.1
36	Miro Heiskanen DAL · D	DAL	D	27	71.6	63 → 60	BLK 1.71 → 1.65	-0.1
37	Mikhail Sergachev UTA · D	UTA	D	28	86.8	59 → 56	HIT 0.49 → 0.63	-0.0
38	Artemi Panarin LAK · L	LAK	L	34	46.9	84 → 83	SOG 2.87 → 2.78	-0.0

Trend and Move are the change in per-game value across every category this league counts, projected 2026-27 against actual 2025-26 (minimum 20 games played). G+A is shown because it is the number everyone carries in their head, but it is not what the ordering is on: a player can gain points and still slip in a league paying him for hits or blocks, and Biggest mover names the per-game category doing the most work either way. A player with no comparable last season shows no trend rather than a zero.