Draft Value vs ADP · 2026-27

Biggest gaps between our projected multi-category value rank and consensus ADP. Positive gap = drafted later than our value (a sleeper); negative = going earlier than the projection supports.

Ranked for Banger — peripheral-heavy: HIT/BLK 2x, PIM 1.5x, SOG 1.2x — scoring still counts. Consensus ADP from espn, fantrax.

💎 Undervalued · draft targets

#	Player	Tm	Pos	Our rank	ADP	Gap	z-value
1	Jeremy Lauzon VGK · D	VGK	D	8	290.6	+282.6	+11.5
2	Nikita Zadorov BOS · D	BOS	D	5	284.8	+279.8	+13.6
3	Mark Kastelic BOS · C	BOS	C	12	289.5	+277.5	+10.4
4	Radko Gudas FLA · D	FLA	D	18	287.9	+269.9	+9.2
5	Adam Klapka CGY · R	CGY	R	27	290.7	+263.7	+8.6
6	Jack McBain UTA · C	UTA	C	26	286.6	+260.6	+8.6
7	Yakov Trenin MIN · C	MIN	C	35	284.4	+249.4	+7.7
8	Jake McCabe TOR · D	TOR	D	46	290.6	+244.6	+6.9
9	Brenden Dillon NJD · D	NJD	D	63	291.7	+228.7	+6.1
10	Neal Pionk WPG · D	WPG	D	51	275.6	+224.6	+6.6
11	Kaiden Guhle MTL · D	MTL	D	71	291.9	+220.9	+5.8
12	Mario Ferraro WPG · D	WPG	D	75	290.9	+215.9	+5.6
13	Vasily Podkolzin EDM · R	EDM	R	65	280.6	+215.6	+6.0
14	Josh Manson COL · D	COL	D	68	282.6	+214.6	+5.9
15	Martin Fehérváry WSH · D	WSH	D	78	290.2	+212.2	+5.5
16	Adam Larsson SEA · D	SEA	D	84	292.6	+208.6	+5.3
17	Frank Vatrano ANA · R	ANA	R	86	291.6	+205.6	+5.2
18	Brayden Schenn NYI · C	NYI	C	87	288.4	+201.4	+5.2
19	Braden Schneider NYR · D	NYR	D	95	293.4	+198.4	+4.8
20	Simon Edvinsson DET · D	DET	D	77	273.7	+196.7	+5.5
21	Lawson Crouse UTA · L	UTA	L	74	270.4	+196.4	+5.6
22	Sean Walker CAR · D	CAR	D	60	255.2	+195.2	+6.3
23	Colton Parayko STL · D	STL	D	99	283.8	+184.8	+4.8
24	Brayden McNabb VGK · D	VGK	D	110	292.3	+182.3	+4.6
25	Will Cuylle NYR · L	NYR	L	7	189.1	+182.1	+11.7
26	Blake Coleman MIN · L	MIN	L	82	262.5	+180.5	+5.4
27	Peyton Krebs BUF · C	BUF	C	120	291.6	+171.6	+4.1
28	Kiefer Sherwood SJS · L	SJS	L	9	179.9	+170.9	+11.5
29	Ridly Greig OTT · C	OTT	C	126	293	+167.0	+3.9
30	Darnell Nurse SJS · D	SJS	D	6	170.9	+164.9	+12.6
31	Emil Heineman NYI · L	NYI	L	117	279.2	+162.2	+4.3
32	K'Andre Miller CAR · D	CAR	D	94	250.8	+156.8	+4.8
33	Matt Roy WSH · D	WSH	D	146	292.8	+146.8	+3.3
34	Sam Bennett FLA · C	FLA	C	24	152.3	+128.3	+8.7
35	Jacob Trouba SJS · D	SJS	D	22	148.4	+126.4	+8.9
36	Justin Faulk DET · D	DET	D	147	271.8	+124.8	+3.3
37	Aaron Ekblad FLA · D	FLA	D	151	273	+122.0	+3.2
38	MacKenzie Weegar UTA · D	UTA	D	4	122.9	+118.9	+13.9
39	Rasmus Andersson VGK · D	VGK	D	31	148.2	+117.2	+8.0
40	Anton Lundell FLA · C	FLA	C	165	279	+114.0	+2.9

⚠ Overvalued · ADP reaches

#	Player	Tm	Pos	Our rank	ADP	Gap	z-value
1	Troy Terry ANA · R	ANA	R	628	163	-465.0	-6.3
2	Michael Misa SJS · C	SJS	C	611	217.3	-393.7	-5.7
3	Tyler Seguin DAL · C	DAL	C	661	275.2	-385.8	-7.9
4	Zayne Parekh CGY · D	CGY	D	579	195.8	-383.2	-4.9
5	Stephen Halliday OTT · C	OTT	C	659	291.4	-367.6	-7.9
6	Gabe Perreault NYR · R	NYR	R	601	244.5	-356.5	-5.4
7	Maxim Shabanov MIN · R	MIN	R	646	291.8	-354.2	-7.1
8	Konsta Helenius BUF · C	BUF	C	645	291.7	-353.3	-7.1
9	Patrick Kane CHI · R	CHI	R	502	159.4	-342.6	-3.2
10	Egor Chinakhov PIT · R	PIT	R	519	183.1	-335.9	-3.6
11	Andrei Kuzmenko PIT · L	PIT	L	618	288.9	-329.1	-5.9
12	Matvei Gridin CGY · R	CGY	R	605	276.2	-328.8	-5.6
13	Philip Broberg STL · D	STL	D	497	170.7	-326.3	-3.1
14	Cole Hutson WSH · D	WSH	D	447	124.9	-322.1	-2.2
15	Victor Olofsson VGK · L	VGK	L	607	293	-314.0	-5.7
16	Matt Duchene DAL · C	DAL	C	486	174.9	-311.1	-2.8
17	Rasmus Sandin WSH · D	WSH	D	600	291.2	-308.8	-5.4
18	Tim Washe ANA · C	ANA	C	585	291.4	-293.6	-5.0
19	Marat Khusnutdinov BOS · C	BOS	C	584	292.3	-291.7	-5.0
20	John Marino UTA · D	UTA	D	581	290.5	-290.5	-4.9
21	Kaapo Kakko SEA · R	SEA	R	580	290.6	-289.4	-4.9
22	Alex Newhook MTL · C	MTL	C	576	291.3	-284.7	-4.8
23	Ilya Mikheyev TBL · R	TBL	R	574	292.1	-281.9	-4.8
24	Ryan McLeod BUF · C	BUF	C	561	284.6	-276.4	-4.3
25	Casey Mittelstadt BOS · C	BOS	C	564	290.7	-273.3	-4.5
26	Shea Theodore VGK · D	VGK	D	373	99.9	-273.1	-1.1
27	Artemi Panarin LAK · L	LAK	L	306	34.8	-271.2	+0.1
28	Chase Reid SEA · D	SEA	D	551	281.1	-269.9	-4.2
29	Connor Brown NJD · R	NJD	R	557	287.6	-269.4	-4.3
30	Aliaksei Protas WSH · L	WSH	L	430	165.7	-264.3	-2.0
31	Brayden Point TBL · C	TBL	C	325	62.1	-262.9	-0.4
32	JJ Peterka BOS · R	BOS	R	400	138.3	-261.7	-1.5
33	Teuvo Teravainen CHI · C	CHI	C	554	292.9	-261.1	-4.2
34	Luke Evangelista NSH · R	NSH	R	469	208	-261.0	-2.5
35	Nikolaj Ehlers CAR · L	CAR	L	339	79.7	-259.3	-0.6
36	Simon Holmstrom NYI · R	NYI	R	550	292	-258.0	-4.1
37	Jordan Kyrou WSH · R	WSH	R	381	123.1	-257.9	-1.2
38	Gabriel Vilardi WPG · C	WPG	C	393	136.4	-256.6	-1.4
39	Simon Nemec CGY · D	CGY	D	411	155	-256.0	-1.7
40	Mark Stone VGK · R	VGK	R	338	88.5	-249.5	-0.6