Noah Cates

CPHI · age 27 · 2023-24 · drafted 2017 by PHI, round 5, #137 overallCompare with…

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2026-27 projection

Pts

PPP

118

SOG

Hits

Blk

2026-27 outlook · floor / expected / ceiling

Points

Floor 22Expected 44Ceiling 61

Goals

Floor 9Expected 18Ceiling 25

Assists

Floor 13Expected 26Ceiling 37

What moves the range:

Shooting %: expected 14.8% — a hot/cold season swings goals by ±4.9 (pure luck).
Ice time / role: ±7% (line/PP promotion vs demotion) — line & power-play promotion is the biggest upside lever.
Games played: floor assumes 64 (injury), ceiling 82 (full health) vs 80 expected.
Linemates: assist swing of ±7.3 tracks how well his linemates finish his setups.

NHL seasons

Basic Everything

		Scoring						Ice time				Physical			Faceoffs			Finishing
Season	GP	G	A	P	SOG	SH%	PPP	TOI	PP TOI	ES%	PP%	HIT	BLK	PIM	FOW	FOL	FO%	xG	G−xG	+/-
2026-27	3	0	0	0	3	0.0	0	12:54	0:36	21	10	0	1	0	17	15	53.1	0.1	-0.1	-2
2025-26	82	18	29	47	132	13.6	9	16:18	2:06	25	41	102	51	44	467	563	45.3	19.5	-1.5	26
2024-25	78	16	21	37	110	14.5	3	15:54	1:00	—	—	87	54	14	493	612	44.6	16.3	-0.3	3
2023-24	59	6	12	18	78	7.7	0	13:48	0:42	—	—	52	35	0	147	183	44.5	8.5	-2.5	-8
2022-23	82	13	25	38	107	12.1	8	17:48	1:48	—	—	86	65	12	416	638	39.5	14.5	-1.5	3
2021-22	16	5	4	9	23	21.7		—	—	—	—	—	—	4	—	—	—	—	—	4

Expected goals from the shot feed, which starts in 2022-23. Earlier seasons are blank because the data does not exist, not because he had none. G−xG is goals minus expected: how much better or worse he finished than the chances he took.

Other leagues

League	Season	GP	G	A	P	PIM
NCAA	2021-22	37	11	13	24	19
NCAA	2020-21	28	5	14	19	25
NCAA	2019-20	34	14	19	33	35
NCAA	2018-19	40	9	14	23	33
USHL	2017-18	60	21	34	55	26