Sebastian Aho

CCAR · age 29 · 2023-24 · drafted 2017 by NYI, round 5, #139 overallCompare with…

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2026-27 projection

0.38

0.67

1.05

Pts

0.35

PPP

2.51

SOG

0.77

Hits

0.31

Blk

2026-27 outlook · floor / expected / ceiling

Points

Floor 45Expected 85Ceiling 116

Goals

Floor 17Expected 31Ceiling 40

Assists

Floor 28Expected 54Ceiling 75

What moves the range:

Shooting %: expected 15.1% — a hot/cold season swings goals by ±6.5 (pure luck).
Ice time / role: ±7% (line/PP promotion vs demotion) — line & power-play promotion is the biggest upside lever.
Games played: floor assumes 65 (injury), ceiling 82 (full health) vs 81 expected.
Linemates: assist swing of ±15.3 tracks how well his linemates finish his setups.

NHL seasons

Basic Everything

		Scoring						Ice time			Physical
Season	GP	G	A	P	SOG	SH%	PPP	TOI	PP TOI	PP%	HIT	BLK	PIM	+/-
2026-27	3	3	1	4	12	25.0	3	20:00	6:00	68	0	1	8	0
2025-26	79	27	53	80	195	13.8	27	19:36	3:06	60	63	23	46	11
2024-25	79	29	45	74	207	14.0	23	20:06	3:36	—	59	30	46	7
2023-24	78	36	53	89	216	16.7	32	19:36	2:54	—	48	18	36	34
2022-23	75	36	31	67	218	16.5	15	19:30	3:12	—	59	21	42	8
2021-22	79	37	44	81	221	16.7		—	—	—	—	—	38	18
2020-21	56	24	33	57	148	16.2		—	—	—	—	—	32	16
2019-20	68	38	28	66	206	18.4		—	—	—	—	—	26	10
2018-19	82	30	53	83	243	12.3		—	—	—	—	—	26	25
2017-18	78	29	36	65	200	14.5		—	—	—	—	—	24	4
2016-17	82	24	25	49	214	11.2		—	—	—	—	—	26	-1

Expected goals from the shot feed, which starts in 2022-23. Earlier seasons are blank because the data does not exist, not because he had none. G−xG is goals minus expected: how much better or worse he finished than the chances he took.

Other leagues

League	Season	GP	G	A	P	PIM
LIIGA	2015-16	45	20	25	45	2