Draft Value vs ADP · 2026-27

Biggest gaps between our projected multi-category value rank and consensus ADP. Positive gap = drafted later than our value (a sleeper); negative = going earlier than the projection supports.

Ranked for Points-only — goals + assists only — no peripherals. Consensus ADP from espn, fantrax.

💎 Undervalued · draft targets

#	Player	Tm	Pos	Our rank	ADP	Gap	z-value
1	Ryan McLeod BUF · C	BUF	C	137	284.6	+147.6	+51.0
2	Marco Rossi VAN · C	VAN	C	120	266.2	+146.2	+53.7
3	Anthony Cirelli TBL · C	TBL	C	119	261.2	+142.2	+53.9
4	Chandler Stephenson SEA · C	SEA	C	149	290.6	+141.6	+48.0
5	Anton Lundell FLA · C	FLA	C	138	279	+141.0	+50.9
6	Matty Beniers SEA · C	SEA	C	128	265	+137.0	+52.4
7	Claude Giroux OTT · R	OTT	R	159	291.1	+132.1	+46.3
8	Connor McMichael STL · L	STL	L	143	274.6	+131.6	+49.1
9	Alexander Wennberg SJS · C	SJS	C	163	285.5	+122.5	+45.7
10	Pierre-Luc Dubois WSH · C	WSH	C	133	253.1	+120.1	+51.9
11	Sean Monahan CBJ · C	CBJ	C	173	291.9	+118.9	+44.1
12	Casey Mittelstadt BOS · C	BOS	C	174	290.7	+116.7	+44.0
13	Dawson Mercer NJD · C	NJD	C	176	290.2	+114.2	+43.7
14	Jonathan Huberdeau CGY · L	CGY	L	175	287.2	+112.2	+43.8
15	Ben Kindel PIT · C	PIT	C	171	278.1	+107.1	+44.2
16	Jonathan Marchessault NSH · R	NSH	R	183	289	+106.0	+42.2
17	Teuvo Teravainen CHI · C	CHI	C	188	292.9	+104.9	+40.9
18	Noah Cates PHI · L	PHI	L	189	291.1	+102.1	+40.8
19	Jordan Eberle SEA · R	SEA	R	181	281.5	+100.5	+42.5
20	Elias Lindholm BOS · C	BOS	C	139	238.7	+99.7	+50.9
21	Mats Zuccarello LAK · R	LAK	R	84	183.1	+99.1	+60.7
22	Pavel Buchnevich STL · L	STL	L	134	232.6	+98.6	+51.7
23	Kyle Palmieri NYI · C	NYI	C	186	281.6	+95.6	+41.6
24	Roman Kantserov CHI · R	CHI	R	194	288	+94.0	+40.0
25	Simon Holmstrom NYI · R	NYI	R	199	292	+93.0	+39.4
26	Dylan Strome WSH · C	WSH	C	67	158.8	+91.8	+66.9
27	Christian Dvorak PHI · C	PHI	C	197	288.3	+91.3	+39.7
28	Tyler Toffoli SJS · C	SJS	C	156	247.1	+91.1	+46.9
29	Shane Pinto OTT · C	OTT	C	178	268.9	+90.9	+43.1
30	Collin Graf SJS · R	SJS	R	201	291.3	+90.3	+39.1
31	Andrew Copp DET · C	DET	C	203	293	+90.0	+39.0
32	Anders Lee UTA · L	UTA	L	185	274.1	+89.1	+41.7
33	Matt Duchene DAL · C	DAL	C	86	174.9	+88.9	+60.1
34	Taylor Hall CAR · L	CAR	L	204	290.1	+86.1	+38.6
35	Morgan Frost CGY · C	CGY	C	205	290.8	+85.8	+38.5
36	Kaapo Kakko SEA · R	SEA	R	206	290.6	+84.6	+38.4
37	Trevor Moore LAK · L	LAK	L	208	292.6	+84.6	+38.2
38	Emmitt Finnie DET · C	DET	C	209	291.2	+82.2	+38.1
39	Brayden Schenn NYI · C	NYI	C	207	288.4	+81.4	+38.3
40	Brock Boeser VAN · R	VAN	R	130	210.3	+80.3	+52.2

⚠ Overvalued · ADP reaches

#	Player	Tm	Pos	Our rank	ADP	Gap	z-value
1	Cole Hutson WSH · D	WSH	D	459	124.9	-334.1	+16.0
2	Tim Washe ANA · C	ANA	C	619	291.4	-327.6	+5.2
3	Lian Bichsel DAL · D	DAL	D	617	290.7	-326.3	+5.3
4	Yan Kuznetsov CGY · D	CGY	D	595	293.2	-301.8	+6.9
5	Zayne Parekh CGY · D	CGY	D	491	195.8	-295.2	+13.9
6	Jeremy Lauzon VGK · D	VGK	D	582	290.6	-291.4	+7.8
7	Chris Tanev TOR · D	TOR	D	575	292.4	-282.6	+8.1
8	Brenden Dillon NJD · D	NJD	D	573	291.7	-281.3	+8.3
9	Radko Gudas FLA · D	FLA	D	562	287.9	-274.1	+9.0
10	Brayden McNabb VGK · D	VGK	D	549	292.3	-256.7	+9.7
11	Brett Pesce NJD · D	NJD	D	539	293.4	-245.6	+10.3
12	Simon Nemec CGY · D	CGY	D	391	155	-236.0	+21.0
13	Rasmus Sandin WSH · D	WSH	D	522	291.2	-230.8	+11.3
14	Porter Martone PHI · R	PHI	R	285	74.8	-210.2	+30.0
15	Chase Reid SEA · D	SEA	D	488	281.1	-206.9	+14.0
16	Jacob Trouba SJS · D	SJS	D	350	148.4	-201.6	+24.9
17	Nate Schmidt UTA · D	UTA	D	490	293.3	-196.7	+14.0
18	Stephen Halliday OTT · C	OTT	C	481	291.4	-189.6	+14.4
19	Darnell Nurse SJS · D	SJS	D	351	170.9	-180.1	+24.9
20	Joel Edmundson LAK · D	LAK	D	469	292.3	-176.7	+15.4
21	Sam Dickinson SJS · D	SJS	D	443	267.6	-175.4	+17.0
22	Adam Klapka CGY · R	CGY	R	461	290.7	-170.3	+16.0
23	Jared Spurgeon MIN · D	MIN	D	455	291.5	-163.5	+16.3
24	Rasmus Ristolainen PHI · D	PHI	D	456	293.2	-162.8	+16.3
25	Mattias Samuelsson BUF · D	BUF	D	332	171.8	-160.2	+26.4
26	Mario Ferraro WPG · D	WPG	D	451	290.9	-160.1	+16.6
27	Sam Rinzel CHI · D	CHI	D	452	293.6	-158.4	+16.6
28	Mark Kastelic BOS · C	BOS	C	447	289.5	-157.5	+16.8
29	Philip Broberg STL · D	STL	D	323	170.7	-152.3	+27.0
30	Brandt Clarke LAK · D	LAK	D	227	78.4	-148.6	+35.8
31	Braden Schneider NYR · D	NYR	D	442	293.4	-148.6	+17.1
32	Jonas Brodin MIN · D	MIN	D	435	291.7	-143.3	+17.5
33	Alberts Smits NYR · D	NYR	D	426	289.3	-136.7	+18.0
34	Dougie Hamilton NJD · D	NJD	D	250	115.8	-134.2	+34.1
35	Konsta Helenius BUF · C	BUF	C	425	291.7	-133.3	+18.0
36	Jamie Drysdale PHI · D	PHI	D	337	204.7	-132.3	+25.8
37	Mikey Anderson LAK · D	LAK	D	424	293.7	-130.3	+18.1
38	MacKenzie Weegar UTA · D	UTA	D	252	122.9	-129.1	+33.9
39	Parker Wotherspoon VGK · D	VGK	D	420	291.1	-128.9	+18.5
40	Jaccob Slavin CAR · D	CAR	D	421	293.1	-127.9	+18.4