Draft Value vs ADP · 2026-27

Two ways the market can be wrong about a player. Level — we rank him well ahead of or behind where he is drafted. Direction — he is moving against his own last season and his price has not moved with him.

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pick the categories your league counts and the tiers re-score for them

Value and rank computed for Points-only — goals + assists only — no peripherals.

💎 Undervalued · we rank them ahead of their price

#	Player	Tm	Pos	Our rank	ADP	Gap	Trend	z-value
1	Roman Kantserov CHI · R	CHI	R	109	258.7	+149.7	—	+57.3
2	Ryan McLeod BUF · C	BUF	C	143	286.4	+143.4	-0.0	+51.9
3	Chandler Stephenson SEA · C	SEA	C	164	289.8	+125.8	-0.0	+47.8
4	Dawson Mercer NJD · C	NJD	C	171	290.8	+119.8	+0.0	+46.2
5	Matty Beniers SEA · C	SEA	C	129	248.4	+119.4	+0.0	+54.3
6	Ben Kindel PIT · C	PIT	C	170	288.3	+118.3	+0.1	+46.4
7	Christian Dvorak PHI · C	PHI	C	178	290.6	+112.6	-0.1	+45.7
8	Elias Lindholm BOS · C	BOS	C	126	235.3	+109.3	-0.0	+54.5
9	Jack Quinn BUF · R	BUF	R	145	252.1	+107.1	+0.0	+51.7
10	Sean Monahan CBJ · C	CBJ	C	186	292.1	+106.1	+0.1	+43.9
11	Marco Rossi VAN · C	VAN	C	141	245.7	+104.7	-0.0	+52.1
12	Anton Lundell FLA · C	FLA	C	142	246.5	+104.5	-0.0	+52.0
13	Noah Cates PHI · C	PHI	C	189	292.3	+103.3	-0.0	+43.5
14	Claude Giroux OTT · C	OTT	C	183	284.4	+101.4	+0.0	+44.1
15	Casey Mittelstadt BOS · C	BOS	C	192	292.6	+100.6	-0.0	+43.1
16	Conor Garland CBJ · R	CBJ	R	193	293.4	+100.4	+0.1	+43.0
17	Anthony Cirelli TBL · C	TBL	C	118	218.3	+100.3	-0.0	+55.9
18	Kaapo Kakko SEA · R	SEA	R	194	292.8	+98.8	-0.1	+43.0
19	Cole Perfetti WPG · L	WPG	L	175	273.6	+98.6	+0.1	+45.9
20	Connor McMichael STL · C	STL	C	133	231.5	+98.5	+0.1	+53.4
21	Pierre-Luc Dubois WSH · C	WSH	C	151	249.2	+98.2	+0.1	+50.9
22	Andrew Copp DET · C	DET	C	197	292.4	+95.4	+0.0	+41.9
23	Jimmy Snuggerud STL · R	STL	R	69	163.7	+94.7	+0.2	+68.2
24	William Eklund OTT · L	OTT	L	72	164.5	+92.5	+0.1	+67.2
25	Cole Sillinger CBJ · C	CBJ	C	203	293	+90.0	+0.1	+40.9
26	Matt Coronato CGY · R	CGY	R	156	245.5	+89.5	+0.1	+49.2
27	Dylan Strome WSH · C	WSH	C	74	163.4	+89.4	+0.1	+66.2
28	Pavel Zacha BOS · C	BOS	C	91	180.2	+89.2	-0.1	+60.5
29	Jackson Blake CAR · R	CAR	R	102	191.2	+89.2	+0.1	+58.5
30	Teuvo Teravainen CHI · C	CHI	C	206	293.1	+87.1	+0.0	+40.5
31	Luke Evangelista NJD · R	NJD	R	113	199.7	+86.7	+0.0	+57.1
32	Simon Holmstrom NYI · R	NYI	R	207	292.4	+85.4	-0.0	+40.4
33	Braeden Bowman VGK · R	VGK	R	208	292.9	+84.9	+0.2	+40.3
34	Alexander Wennberg SJS · C	SJS	C	172	255.8	+83.8	-0.1	+46.1
35	Beckett Sennecke ANA · R	ANA	R	42	125	+83.0	+0.2	+78.7
36	Emmitt Finnie DET · L	DET	L	210	291.3	+81.3	+0.1	+40.2
37	Pavel Buchnevich STL · L	STL	L	134	215.2	+81.2	+0.1	+53.3
38	Gabriel Vilardi WPG · R	WPG	R	80	160.2	+80.2	-0.0	+63.0
39	Mats Zuccarello LAK · R	LAK	R	131	210.2	+79.2	-0.1	+53.8
40	Ivan Demidov MTL · R	MTL	R	48	127	+79.0	+0.2	+75.2

⚠ Overvalued · going earlier than the projection supports

#	Player	Tm	Pos	Our rank	ADP	Gap	Trend	z-value
1	Matt Rempe NYR · C	NYR	C	599	291.9	-307.1	+0.0	+2.2
2	Adam Edstrom NSH · C	NSH	C	598	291.9	-306.1	-0.1	+2.8
3	Arshdeep Bains VAN · L	VAN	L	596	291.9	-304.1	-0.1	+3.1
4	Josh Mahura SEA · D	SEA	D	593	292.6	-300.4	-0.1	+3.8
5	Zach Bogosian MIN · D	MIN	D	591	292.5	-298.5	-0.1	+4.3
6	Marc Gatcomb VGK · R	VGK	R	590	292.3	-297.7	-0.1	+4.5
7	Jeremy Lauzon VGK · D	VGK	D	572	275	-297.0	-0.1	+6.6
8	Luke Schenn VAN · D	VAN	D	588	291.2	-296.8	-0.1	+4.7
9	Samuel Helenius LAK · C	LAK	C	589	292.6	-296.4	-0.1	+4.6
10	Alexey Toropchenko STL · R	STL	R	586	292.3	-293.7	-0.1	+4.8
11	Erik Gudbranson CBJ · D	CBJ	D	585	292.6	-292.4	0.0	+4.8
12	Sam Colangelo ANA · R	ANA	R	584	292.6	-291.4	—	+4.9
13	Declan Carlile PIT · D	PIT	D	583	292.2	-290.8	+0.0	+5.1
14	Nikolas Matinpalo OTT · D	OTT	D	582	291.9	-290.1	-0.0	+5.3
15	Lian Bichsel DAL · D	DAL	D	581	291	-290.0	-0.1	+5.5
16	Garnet Hathaway FLA · R	FLA	R	580	292.4	-287.6	+0.0	+5.5
17	Ross Johnston STL · L	STL	L	579	291.8	-287.2	-0.1	+5.5
18	Ryan Lomberg CBJ · L	CBJ	L	577	292.6	-284.4	-0.1	+5.8
19	Jordan Greenway CHI · L	CHI	L	576	292.5	-283.5	-0.0	+5.8
20	Reid Schaefer NSH · L	NSH	L	574	292.6	-281.4	-0.1	+6.2
21	Dmitri Simashev UTA · D	UTA	D	571	292.9	-278.1	+0.1	+6.7
22	Emil Lilleberg TBL · D	TBL	D	570	292.1	-277.9	-0.1	+6.8
23	Elias Pettersson VAN · D	VAN	D	569	292.9	-276.1	-0.0	+6.9
24	Joel Kiviranta DAL · L	DAL	L	568	292.6	-275.4	-0.1	+6.9
25	Jeff Malott ANA · L	ANA	L	567	292.4	-274.6	-0.0	+7.1
26	Nils Lundkvist DAL · D	DAL	D	566	292.3	-273.7	-0.1	+7.1
27	Vincent Desharnais WSH · D	WSH	D	563	292.7	-270.3	-0.0	+7.2
28	Nico Sturm MIN · C	MIN	C	562	292.6	-269.4	-0.1	+7.3
29	Johnathan Kovacevic NJD · D	NJD	D	560	292.4	-267.6	-0.1	+7.5
30	Scott Mayfield NYI · D	NYI	D	559	292.4	-266.6	-0.1	+7.5
31	Jack St. Ivany WPG · D	WPG	D	558	292.4	-265.6	-0.2	+7.6
32	Joseph Veleno NYR · C	NYR	C	557	292.7	-264.3	+0.0	+7.8
33	Nils Hoglander NSH · L	NSH	L	556	292.4	-263.6	+0.0	+7.9
34	Troy Stecher TOR · D	TOR	D	555	292.3	-262.7	-0.1	+7.9
35	Dmitry Kulikov FLA · D	FLA	D	554	292.6	-261.4	—	+7.9
36	Cole Koepke WPG · L	WPG	L	553	292.5	-260.5	-0.1	+8.1
37	Declan Chisholm NJD · D	NJD	D	552	292.6	-259.4	-0.1	+8.1
38	Ilya Lyubushkin NSH · D	NSH	D	551	292.5	-258.5	-0.1	+8.1
39	Tim Washe ANA · C	ANA	C	550	292.5	-257.5	+0.0	+8.4
40	Ian Moore ANA · D	ANA	D	549	292.3	-256.7	-0.1	+8.5

📈 Rising, and not yet repriced · going after pick 100

Projected to gain on last season in the categories this league counts, and still available late. A riser the room already knows about is priced as one.

#	Player	Tm	Pos	Age	ADP	G+A	Biggest mover	Move
1	Beckett Sennecke ANA · R	ANA	R	20	125	60 → 79	G 0.28 → 0.41	+0.2
2	Ville Koivunen PIT · R	PIT	R	23	292.6	7 → 24	A 0.13 → 0.25	+0.2
3	Frank Vatrano ANA · R	ANA	R	32	275.3	9 → 28	G 0.1 → 0.21	+0.2
4	Ivan Demidov MTL · R	MTL	R	20	127	62 → 75	A 0.52 → 0.65	+0.2
5	Victor Hedman TBL · D	TBL	D	35	114.1	17 → 46	G 0.03 → 0.12	+0.2
6	Kent Johnson CBJ · C	CBJ	C	24	289.5	22 → 34	A 0.2 → 0.28	+0.2
7	Isaac Howard EDM · L	EDM	L	22	292.8	5 → 25	G 0.07 → 0.17	+0.2
8	Jimmy Snuggerud STL · R	STL	R	22	163.7	51 → 68	A 0.43 → 0.53	+0.2
9	Braeden Bowman VGK · R	VGK	R	23	292.9	26 → 40	G 0.15 → 0.25	+0.2
10	William Eklund OTT · L	OTT	L	24	164.5	53 → 67	G 0.19 → 0.29	+0.1
11	Ben Kindel PIT · C	PIT	C	19	288.3	35 → 46	G 0.22 → 0.3	+0.1
12	Sean Monahan CBJ · C	CBJ	C	32	292.1	36 → 44	A 0.29 → 0.38	+0.1
13	Phillip Danault MTL · C	MTL	C	33	292.1	17 → 29	A 0.15 → 0.23	+0.1
14	Matvei Michkov PHI · R	PHI	R	21	163.5	51 → 62	A 0.38 → 0.47	+0.1
15	Emmitt Finnie DET · L	DET	L	21	291.3	30 → 40	G 0.16 → 0.24	+0.1
16	Stefan Noesen NJD · R	NJD	R	33	292.5	7 → 20	G 0.08 → 0.16	+0.1
17	J.T. Miller NYR · C	NYR	C	33	112.3	53 → 68	A 0.53 → 0.61	+0.1
18	Cole Perfetti WPG · L	WPG	L	24	273.6	32 → 46	G 0.18 → 0.26	+0.1
19	Marco Kasper DET · C	DET	C	22	290.2	19 → 29	G 0.11 → 0.19	+0.1
20	Luke Hughes NJD · D	NJD	D	23	163.5	35 → 49	A 0.43 → 0.51	+0.1
21	Mason McTavish STL · C	STL	C	23	205.5	41 → 52	G 0.23 → 0.3	+0.1
22	Barrett Hayton UTA · C	UTA	C	26	293.5	25 → 37	G 0.15 → 0.24	+0.1
23	Daniil But UTA · L	UTA	L	21	292.6	7 → 16	G 0.1 → 0.19	+0.1
24	Cole Sillinger CBJ · C	CBJ	C	23	293	33 → 41	G 0.1 → 0.19	+0.1
25	Berkly Catton SEA · C	SEA	C	20	292.5	17 → 27	G 0.11 → 0.18	+0.1
26	Michael Kesselring SJS · D	SJS	D	26	278.5	2 → 12	A 0.06 → 0.12	+0.1
27	Ryan Greene CHI · C	CHI	C	22	292.6	29 → 37	G 0.15 → 0.21	+0.1
28	Seth Jarvis CAR · R	CAR	R	24	109.9	66 → 70	G 0.45 → 0.5	+0.1
29	Jordan Kyrou WSH · R	WSH	R	28	137.3	46 → 59	G 0.25 → 0.33	+0.1
30	Jonathan Marchessault NSH · R	NSH	R	35	251.6	31 → 44	G 0.19 → 0.27	+0.1
31	Shane Wright SEA · C	SEA	C	22	292.8	27 → 36	A 0.2 → 0.26	+0.1
32	Nazem Kadri COL · C	COL	C	36	144.6	50 → 57	G 0.21 → 0.32	+0.1
33	Elias Pettersson VAN · C	VAN	C	27	127.3	51 → 61	G 0.2 → 0.26	+0.1
34	Artyom Levshunov CHI · D	CHI	D	20	261.1	24 → 34	A 0.32 → 0.38	+0.1
35	Timo Meier NJD · R	NJD	R	30	117.2	44 → 54	G 0.31 → 0.38	+0.1
36	Michael Misa SJS · C	SJS	C	19	207.8	21 → 31	A 0.27 → 0.33	+0.1
37	Tomas Hertl VGK · C	VGK	C	32	140.5	58 → 63	G 0.29 → 0.38	+0.1
38	Maxim Tsyplakov CGY · R	CGY	R	28	292.9	4 → 11	A 0.04 → 0.1	+0.1
39	Ryan Leonard WSH · R	WSH	R	21	206	45 → 53	A 0.33 → 0.39	+0.1
40	Mackie Samoskevich SEA · R	SEA	R	23	267.3	32 → 38	G 0.16 → 0.24	+0.1

📉 Slipping, and still being paid for · going inside pick 100

Projected to give back ground and still drafted early. This is a don't-pay-last-year's-price list, not a don't-draft list.

#	Player	Tm	Pos	Age	ADP	G+A	Biggest mover	Move
1	Darren Raddysh TOR · D	TOR	D	30	65.1	70 → 58	G 0.3 → 0.17	-0.2
2	Mark Scheifele WPG · C	WPG	C	33	41	103 → 91	A 0.82 → 0.75	-0.1
3	William Nylander TOR · R	TOR	R	30	36	79 → 88	A 0.75 → 0.69	-0.1
4	Jakob Chychrun WSH · D	WSH	D	28	48.1	60 → 51	G 0.33 → 0.24	-0.1
5	Charlie McAvoy BOS · D	BOS	D	28	95.5	61 → 57	A 0.72 → 0.64	-0.1
6	Steven Stamkos NSH · C	NSH	C	36	95.5	66 → 54	G 0.51 → 0.38	-0.1
7	Cole Caufield MTL · R	MTL	R	25	18.9	88 → 79	G 0.63 → 0.51	-0.1
8	Martin Necas COL · R	COL	R	27	24.3	100 → 97	G 0.49 → 0.4	-0.1
9	Erik Karlsson PIT · D	PIT	D	36	81.3	66 → 59	A 0.68 → 0.64	-0.1
10	Pavel Dorofeyev NYR · R	NYR	R	25	96.9	64 → 56	G 0.45 → 0.39	-0.1
11	John Carlson TBL · D	TBL	D	36	69.4	60 → 54	A 0.65 → 0.61	-0.1
12	Brock Faber MIN · D	MIN	D	24	93.3	51 → 42	G 0.19 → 0.13	-0.1
13	Mika Zibanejad NYR · C	NYR	C	33	66.9	78 → 72	G 0.42 → 0.34	-0.1
14	Alex Tuch WSH · R	WSH	R	30	71	66 → 62	G 0.42 → 0.35	-0.1
15	Tage Thompson BUF · C	BUF	C	28	27.8	81 → 76	G 0.49 → 0.45	-0.1
16	Alex DeBrincat DET · R	DET	R	28	43.2	85 → 82	G 0.5 → 0.47	-0.1
17	Cutter Gauthier ANA · L	ANA	L	22	45.4	69 → 68	G 0.54 → 0.44	-0.1
18	Nikita Kucherov TBL · R	TBL	R	33	3.9	130 → 128	G 0.58 → 0.48	-0.1
19	Evan Bouchard EDM · D	EDM	D	26	15.4	95 → 92	G 0.26 → 0.23	-0.0
20	Leon Draisaitl EDM · C	EDM	C	30	7.1	97 → 112	G 0.54 → 0.5	-0.0
21	Drake Batherson OTT · R	OTT	R	28	92.3	71 → 69	G 0.42 → 0.35	-0.0
22	Zach Hyman EDM · L	EDM	L	34	75.8	52 → 62	A 0.36 → 0.33	-0.0
23	Sidney Crosby PIT · C	PIT	C	39	53.3	74 → 71	G 0.43 → 0.37	-0.0
24	Jackson LaCombe ANA · D	ANA	D	25	87.5	58 → 54	A 0.59 → 0.53	-0.0
25	Zach Werenski CBJ · D	CBJ	D	29	13.6	81 → 84	G 0.29 → 0.25	-0.0
26	Adrian Kempe LAK · R	LAK	R	30	59.9	73 → 71	G 0.44 → 0.39	-0.0
27	Filip Forsberg NSH · L	NSH	L	32	35.3	75 → 72	G 0.49 → 0.4	-0.0
28	Mikhail Sergachev UTA · D	UTA	D	28	86.8	59 → 56	A 0.63 → 0.6	-0.0
29	Matt Boldy MIN · L	MIN	L	25	15.2	85 → 89	G 0.55 → 0.48	-0.0
30	Moritz Seider DET · D	DET	D	25	40.5	60 → 59	A 0.61 → 0.59	-0.0
31	Adam Fox NYR · D	NYR	D	28	64.8	53 → 71	G 0.16 → 0.14	-0.0
32	Jason Robertson DAL · L	DAL	L	27	12	96 → 96	G 0.55 → 0.49	-0.0
33	Jake Sanderson OTT · D	OTT	D	24	69.3	54 → 63	G 0.21 → 0.17	-0.0
34	Alex Ovechkin WSH · L	WSH	L	41	81.5	64 → 50	A 0.39 → 0.38	-0.0
35	Jake Guentzel TBL · C	TBL	C	32	31.2	88 → 87	A 0.62 → 0.61	-0.0
36	Miro Heiskanen DAL · D	DAL	D	27	71.6	63 → 60	A 0.7 → 0.68	-0.0
37	Roman Josi NSH · D	NSH	D	36	54.5	55 → 53	A 0.62 → 0.61	-0.0

Trend and Move are the change in per-game value across every category this league counts, projected 2026-27 against actual 2025-26 (minimum 20 games played). G+A is shown because it is the number everyone carries in their head, but it is not what the ordering is on: a player can gain points and still slip in a league paying him for hits or blocks, and Biggest mover names the per-game category doing the most work either way. A player with no comparable last season shows no trend rather than a zero.